Member Info for Boulevardier

Big purchases of shares by Huntington Management, LLC on 22 July and 26 August taking them to over 10%. I wonder if this is a prelude to a takeover? On a forecast PE of just 5 for a growing business, and £71m of cash on the balance sheet compared to a mkt cap of just £57m, this company is a steal.

Sorry to see you go BB. Your well informed and insightful posts were always a pleasure to read.

I've run the cruise numbers* on the latest booking figures and they're looking good. Great load factors until mid November and people are always going to book late for some winter sun, so am not too worried about the rest. 2023/2024 load factors are significantly better than at the last update.

https://postimg.cc/zLx1LmsF

* assumed website availability represents actual availability. Load factors calculated from double cabins only (single cabins book quicker so should be conservative).

On the face of it a strange decision, assuming the status quo. So I wonder if a break-up is on the cards? His experience would be perfect for this (ex PE, non-exec and city connections, etc.). RR certainly worth more as the sum of its parts.

Has this 78 day tour been pulled? Can no longer find it on the website. It was always a big risk and wasn't filling up fast, so if they can replace it with something more popular it may be good news.

Thanks NicName, am ROFL.

Lucre, unless we’re listening to answers to different questions, he doesn’t specifically mention prior year reserve releases. Combined Operating Ratio (COR) was 96.3% for FYE22 giving a pure year UW PBT of £12m, so it makes sense that if they’re targeting a COR of 97% going forward (which is slightly worse) then the pure year result would drop slightly to £10m.

Thanks Lucre, just listened to that. The CFO wasn’t specific, but one would assume he’s talking about the pure year insurance result, before prior year reserve releases. Obviously there will be some impact on this as people start driving (and crashing) again after the pandemic.

Apologies for the name typo

You are right zxxax. Pure year insurance PBT for the four FYEs 2019-2022 are £13.9m, £9.4m, £20.3m and £12.7m respectively. Prior year releases for the same periods are: £71.1m, £29.6m, £37.6m and £42.1m. This is exactly the sort of ratio you'd expect to see from a well run, conservatively reserved book of insurance business and there is no reason why this should change going forward. If anyone can post a link to a recording of what the CFO supposedly said, I'd be interested in listening to it.

Lucre, where/when did they guide on only £10m UW profits going forward? All I can find in the prelims is the statement that: "While the Group remains prudently reserved and expects to see ongoing reserve releases in 2022/23, these are
expected to be at a lower level than in 2021/22."

Anon, broking was £66m for FY22 with underwriting a further £54m. £120m underlying PBT for insurance combined.

Would need a special resolution to take private, i.e. 75% of the voting shares. RdH is only in for 27%, so would need almost all the institutional shareholders on board too and I can’t believe they’d sign up to it at anything like the current SP. I am sure RdH would be furiously going into the market and buying at this price too were he not prevented by rule 9 of the Takeover Code which would require him to make a full offer for the company once the 30% threshold was reached.

Saga facemask policy would seem to be in line with consortium guidelines:
https://www.healthygateways.eu/Portals/0/plcdocs/EUHG_Operational_guidelines_CoV_April2022.pdf?ver=2022-04-06-152525-527

"Face masks should be used by passengers at all times in all areas on board when
exiting/outside of their cabins (exceptions include during eating or drinking at restaurants and
bars, seated on sunbeds, swimming or doing other activities where the mask would get wet,
in which case physical distancing should still be practiced and when using the gym). Crew
members and passengers should use a face mask (preferably a medical face mask, or FFP2
mask or equivalent that fits well) in any public indoor space, in addition to maintaining physical
distancing. Face masks must be worn outdoors if physical distancing cannot be maintained.
When crew members and passengers are ashore they should follow the rules of each country."

So if other cruise operators are not following the protocol, they should be.

£40m as the per ship EBITDA is what I was missing. Makes perfect sense now, cheers.

Thanks Banbury. I'm just trying to understand your working. So EBITDA is £40m per ship at 85% load factor (LF) and £275 per diems (PD). Now would I be right in thinking that the vast majority of the costs of running a cruise ship are fixed? Only variable costs I can think of are food, drink and chauffeur collection/drop off. Trivial in the scheme of things. So at the margin, additional LF revenue drops straight to the bottom line (more or less). So assuming revenue is £2m per % of LF at £275 PD (from above) and all costs are fixed wouldn't nil EBITDA be at 85% - 40/2 = 65%, not 45%?

Does anyone have any idea what the break even load factors are on Saga ships? I see here for modern ships it can be as low as 30%:
https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/2020/05/21/royal-caribbeans-newer-ships-break-even-quicker-older-ships
I am long Saga.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jul/23/new-rules-on-junk-food-ads-could-threaten-uk-economic-recovery

Exact details tbc, but may impact the business I imagine?

No position.