Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
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Ok - I may be mad, too unstable, kicking down chairs and knocking down tables .... (name the song for bonus points) but I have just sunk 5k into NFX on a different trading account. I think we should easily be able to see 0.30 in the next few months even if it is just from PnDers.
More investors will get wind of the possibilities here I think so we should be able to lift ourselves out of this current SP funk.
NFX unlike COPL is a sound investment, there is a real product here, or will be. Yes there is risk but like you said Jiving we are now in with a decent chance of a deal.
Nothing dodgy about NFX at least!
Good luck all.
I'm sorry to hear that you have both lost money under circumstances where you suspect things have not been played on the level.
I don't know the facts in your particular case but, commenting in general, there's a big difference between dodgy and risky.
We all know investment involves risk. Things don't always work out, even when directors have the best intentions and do their utmost to succeed. That said, in an environment where risk is a given, corruption/deception can also flourish.
Corruption damages the reputation of the financial markets. If investors cannot trust the markets then investment will eventually be driven away. It's not just the investors who lose out either, it's all those with jobs in genuine companies that depend on that investment.
The authorities therefore have a duty to protect investors from corruption. So I don't think there is anything wrong in bringing 'dodgy' behaviour to their attention, even though you might not get your money back.
Hi Transhaven, I will keep it brief as its partly off topic but I do have comment on NFX as well below. COPL was killed primarily by the reality it was run by a totally dodgy scumbag, a halfway decent CEO could have quite likely succeeded. The problem with smaller companies is shareholders have to act before disaster happens not afterwards & its v difficult getting any concerted action in advance - I know I tried wayback with COPL. As did PaulK in 2021, possibly the last chance to have stopped disaster.
NFX is fortunately run by a decent, entrepreneurial, substantial shareholder in Dan. At least that takes away the chance of an Arthur type situation now he is back in effective charge. But given I began building a stake around the 4p re-listing price, my original shares are at 5% of what I paid. I think many of the original shareholders, including me, had never invested in a biotech co before & didnt realise quite how long it would take to get 002 fit to market to JV partners - essentially 7 years. Just about everything that could go wrong, did go wrong; but we just survived & I think we are now in with a decent chance of a deal.
Looks like we finally did totally lose all money in the other company we were both invested it. What is hilarious is the same people that were so vociferously defending and promoting the company even though everyone knew how dodgy it was are now involved in some "class action" that will go precisely no where!
NFX might be boring but at least there is some chance that at some year before we all die then we will get a product out and the SP will be many multiples.
..sign of the EU patent for 02!
I thought reports on the Telegram huddle back in late Feb said it was being finalised and release was imminent.
It's all gone very quiet now they've got the top-up from their 'big institutional'.
Application may well have been made but submissions are only reviewed periodically the next review date I believe being 27/03/24
...application for orphan status yet?
Interesting short video/transcript. Expiring IP in rest of this decade will drive Biotech M&A:
https://citywire.com/funds-insider/news/ailsa-craig-big-pharma-has-a-problem-and-that-s-driving-biotech-manda/a2438448
Not likely to be. As I’ve said before MM’s don’t declare below 10%
...TR1 then?
Get your point Jiving.
Overall its a benefit to achieve orphan designation (fingers crossed they do so) as it definitely adds value of ten years market protection.
Hopefully we get confirmation that they have submitted the application.
You are correct Soup & I should have made my Orphan point in relation to IPF and not 'all' drugs. But I am just trying to get a discussion started on our chances of success, and if you include a whole list of qualifiers it reads like some dull legalistic prospectus or annual report.
Re-Chabs point - yes thats how I see it, first we needed a patent granting and only then can we apply for Orphan status. But also until you start approaching Pharmas to gauge their interest you cant find out what their JV parameters are at this particular point in time.
That said I would disagree with Jiving's generic comment 'It seems that Pharma's essentially require this as a necessary condition before examining whether to invest in a new drug.'
Given that orphan drugs are for rare disease only, by nature pharma's can't require orphan designation across the board otherwise all drugs would be orphan and no disease would be rare.
Personally I think it relates to the caution around repurposed drugs and wanting as much certainty around product protection as possible.
From the Allenby note 2 years ago.
'Note that many have Fast Track Designation and/or Orphan Drug Designation factors that can accelerate the review process and extend the period of market/data exclusivity and so this is also an option for NXP002. '
Since then the company has consistently said that they consider it an option.
I doubt you would seek orphan designation before patents are granted, as it would be strange to have the product protected as an orphan drug, but not patent protected.
Furthermore, with orphan designation you need to back up your claims with evidence so its seen as a validation of a drug rather than just patenting a method.
"It seems that Pharma's essentially require this as a necessary condition before examining whether to invest in a new drug."
And yet for years the company intimated discussions were on going. Yet this Orphan status has never been mentioned before.
Why if it's so very important?
From Dan's Telegram explanation I see the critical event in the next 12 months to be getting (or not) the grant of Orphan drug designation by the EMA for NXP002. It seems that Pharma's essentially require this as a necessary condition before examining whether to invest in a new drug. It provides them with two benefits - first, an objective third party has examined a new drug & deemed that it has potential - an important independent vindication, essentially 'for free'. Second, it provides real tangible benefits in terms of market exclusivity & access that provide tangible long term financial benefits & therefore directly impact IRR.
I was very impressed by the lengthy Allenby research report on NFX a few years ago, which set out a probabilistic valuation model for small biotech companies like NFX. This struck me as being the crux of the matter - getting a deal or not is entirely up to the whims & decision making processes of third parties. My unscientific probabilistic take of NXP002's likelihood of success over the next 12 months is - without EMA Orphan status less than 10%; with EMA Orphan status, south of 50:50 but north of one third - call it 40%.
What is the moral of Sisyphus?
Existentialism in The Myth of Sisyphus | Overview & Analysis ...
The moral of "The Myth of Sisyphus" is that there is no greater meaning in life but what we give it. When we accept that the universe has no inherent meaning or reason, we can be free of artificial expectations and embrace the absurd.
Think my average is 1p down from 4p. Not sure it is worth averaging down. What exactly are we expecting in the next 12 months? Seems very vague.
I think there are a few of us that are there or there abouts now.
ATB
I'm in at the placing price.
Christ on a bike…. Even Sisyphus didn’t have to suffer this fate.
"Or maybe, as those words were written in December"
Your words, I think.
‘If those words were written in December’
Well since the finals were issued at 7am on 3 January, I’m wondering what basis you have of saying ‘if’ they were written in December. Or perhaps you think they were written on New Year’s Day?
The point about the agm is, if you really cared you’d find the time. Nobody here can answer all your questions, and yet when you have the opportunity to ask them yourself to management you turn it down.
Your posting history shows you’re not that busy.
If those words were written in December then it just seems odd that 12 months resources no longer satisfy the likely run rates on expenditure? Things must have changed quite alot in the last couple of months?
Anyway orphan status seems to be the key now and that doesn't cost anything but time that we should already have budget for (3 months from now is early June). I'm just confused as to why they didn't wait until we knew the outcome of that before diluting shareholders holdings even more.
As for the AGM, there doesn't seem much point in taking time out of a busy schedule to ask questions if things are so fluid. Probably better to wait and see what happens with orphan progress or maybe see what comes out of the next Telegram session.
One of the big positives FX, is that the agm is just over two weeks away so you can ask Dan in person then.
Or maybe, as those words were written in December, the original plan was for outlicensing, but discussions over the past two months have led to fund raising happening first whilst orphan designation and nxp002 is progressed.