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Hindy86
I'm all ears , please elaborate
people can earn 1 million a day but that doesnt mean you can have outsize transactions. How can a £2 million transaction go which is an order of magnitude larger (actually 2 orders) than the other transactions . It doesnt make sense
Alternatively its some kind of privately agreed transaction , which has to be recorded on this register. So its between two parties
Another £4million transaction dropped,
so we have £4million and £2 million plus £2 million- if we exclude the big transactions (3,650,000+1,825,000+1,825,000) ) =7,300,000 shares
that leaves 1.6 million shares volume
some of the larger transactions may also be account settling
So not much happening today .. Maybe our friends are setting themselves up for when it goes boom :-)
Sorry genghis bout your wrong
And I know you are because I’ve seen money like traded
I’ve seen people earn £1m + in a day
Imo that’s the smart money
Unfortunately me, you and the rest here are the dumb money
Very large transactions aren't typical buys or sells becasue they would be too disruptive
some kind of paired transaction
That’s the smart money comin in
Hopefully the bears stick around for a few weeks to remind us of the debt and how this is going to zero
Tell me you don’t understand without telling me you don’t understand 😁
Followed by a 2m unknown ! Hmmm
Did your 'head wobble' result in the 2m purchase? :-)
One thing Nex are doing is when you have booked your ticket they give you X amount off your next booking.
Mine was £6 off for my next journey
gla
I suspect a fair number of people who have Rail Passes have not renewed them and instead looked for permanent alternatives ..with coach being the reliable, value for money alternative .... enough being enough ... at least on the coach you book a seat and get it....half the time on a train you have to stand or ..someone else is sitting in your booked seat and declines to move
I would guess they are going to reset expectations of what a bus ticket should cost for this journey - from under a tenner to £17-£20
Birmingham Digbeth to London all around £20 today and sold out till late evening . Still ripple effect of the strike I guess
If the management is listening there has to be an increase in ticket pricing to reflect increased cost on the company to manage higher interest rate payments
All airlines have already done this
Each business will have to work on a strategy how to keep their books healthy
It’s not possible to increase drivers pay and absorb higher oil and inventory cost if this is not matched by higher net profits
The business have the right structures in place to make this happen
End of the story
Was there not mentioned in the results somewhere that they were looking to push the bond back to 2026?
Whatever the debt is, it's certainly baked into the price. Even Liberum admitted we were priced right at 120p. Can only improve from here, as detailed by many posts!
Based on interest rates at about 5% this is about +4% on previous norms over past decade. In a pessimistic case that this becomes the new norm and eventually as all that debt lapses, we are talking about 40m incremental finance cost based on 1bn debt. However there is inflationary pressure on the time value of money which will diminish the 1m debt over time in real terms and ratios. If absolute revenue and profit increases then PBT will increase partially offsetting the finance cost increase. Then management need to work on increasing margins 7>10% as they have outlined. If they get half way there then this should get back to 300-350 range. If interest rates fall earlier and faster we will get there faster and have potential to punch up above 400 in time.
£400m Bond Due Nov 2023
£221m Bond Due 2028
£412m Private placement Due 2027-2032
£146m Divisional bank loans -Due Various Dates
Net £233.1m cash at year end 2022
£527m - Core RCFs - Unused
Net Debt of £1.2b includes leases of £183.7m
Net Debt excl Leases is £1016.3m
2022Underlying Profit Before Tax of £145.9m
2022 Underlying Earning per share - 15p giving a P/E of 7 @105p SP
ROCE - 2022 7.7%
School Bus profitability - subdued in H1 2023, recovery expected in H2
Finance costs 2022 - £51m + £20m extra for 2023
Fuel Hedge price higher in 2023 than 2022 but revenue increases expected as post COVID recovery continues
Q1 Revenue +17% yoy constant currencies
You're not short here too are you Terry?
@quickdip, i think you got a contorted view about this all so i am going to give you benefit of the doubt and try explaining how I think about this.. no one is saying everything is rosy with the company, least of all debt position but you can't keep beating down a share for the same reason again and again.. high debt and general macro environment are the two main reasons why this share is down 60% in last year - that level of drop is the result of high debt, it is not new news and thus fairly priced in into the share price, even though some would say it overshot to the downside which shares tend to do..
Debt position - just so that everyone's on the same page here, I have looked at the annual report again.. net debt is £1.2b while EBIDTA is 418m giving you a leverage ratio of 2.9 (lower the better).. this is the same leverage they keep talking about in the annual report with a target of under 2 by end of 2024 and I think it is likely they would be targeting somewhere close to 2.5x for end of 2023 even though it is not published or committed.. now this ratio of 2.9 is high compared to 2.5 which is normally considered 'safe' so a watch item for some ppl or a cause for concern for others but it is not overblown by any means and is likely to be within the safe limit by end of this year which means extremely unlikely that a rights call is coming.. this leverage was over 10 for cineworld which went under and I am sure quite bad for ASOS too but you can check it yourselves and compare - you will realise then what I am trying to say here.
Now if you are alleging that the board members have lied in the annual report or hiding something, that's a completely different ball game, possible but extremely unlikely. Also, in last 10 years the company has only done 1 rights issue and the dilution was about 20% that too during the pandemic, again something you have misquoted previously.
Given the facts above, please be mindful that some people have a big chunk of their lifesavings in shares so throwing out random share price targets or creating panic is not helpful to anyone.. am i saying this will only rise from here on? absolutely no idea, many shares including this one are being manipulated so it sure can go down a bit further but not for any genuine reasons but only due to fear which shortsellers feed on..
hope this helps, gl
I’ve given my head a wobble folks and everything looks fine and dandy.
It’s just having a 2 year bump in the road.
All the directors must just short of cash or they’d be snapping these up like hot cakes.
Shorters obviously got it wrong too.
Refinancing billions of debt is no problem. TUI investors will tell you that.
No need to worry about another RI- shareholders only been diluted about 75% since 2009.
But the best thing is that SP chart looks fantastic.
Will put a few £k in this in the morning.
@quick
Quick & dippy comes to mind having read some of your posts!
Why don't you read the latest financial statement?? If you have, you have failed, miserably!! to interpret it correctly. If you have read it and have interpreted correctly but choose to believe something else, then, unless you have a crystal ball, you are totally misguided, maybe even deluded judging the substance of your posts!
"Profitability (as a percentage) is low,"
That is the world many, many companies operate in , relying on high volume turnover serving the masses
And yes..it is a credit to these companies that they manage to achieve what they do...in the face of what is thrown at them
PC agreed
Profitability (as a percentage) is low, but profits are growing, with the ability to service debt
e.g. very simplified
7% net profit on on 1 billion sales = £70 million
7% on 1.1 billion sales = £77 million
thats why NEX can pay a divi and service its debt
All that matters with the debt is that they are able to service it and pay the coupons on the bonds etc.....
Last year the free cash flow was £161m in the year at a cash conversion rate of 81%, with £0.8bn in cash and undrawn committed facilities
This year Q1 has already shown a 17% increase on last year , and Q2 business could well show further revenue growth
Really not sure anyone needs to wet the bed over debt levels , as long as they are being serviced...and extra revenue is helping with that to offset the higher finance costs...
...plus...a stronger H2 will come from Summer revenue growth, run through of cost savings and e tra School bus revenues and routes to improve against higher costs there..
What is with these bumps in the road that some people get so negative about ??
Quickdip, you definitely need a dip in cold water to get your brain working again, assuming it worked in first place.. or else maybe just stick with ASOS, given your logical acumen, you may find the fundamentals better there!