Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Thanks donnodertrader, I see it now after Googling the core text of your link. As said, I don't normally seek out opinion media analysis unless they contain actual useful data that's not been previously made available.
Off for a cuppa and a choccy biccy to read it with :)
************** (without space) is the missing part
https://www.*******************/ncwhyt-novacyt-primerdesign-and-why-to-invest
(************* .co .uk /ncwhyt-novacyt-primerdesign-and-why-to-invest)
**************
nope - ******************* is the missing part
Velo, i do not believe in charts, but i do believe in trends ..
post recommended.
Once a trend starts its difficult to turn it around. As you say signs its being turned.
link redacted - see if this works ?
https://www.*******************/ncwhyt-novacyt-primerdesign-and-why-to-invest
Velo did you see this. it was posted earlier.
https://www.*******************/ncwhyt-novacyt-primerdesign-and-why-to-invest
" Forgive me asking an obvious question. If manufacturing capabilities is going up, substantially, why is the share price dropping?!
Very confusing. "
--------------
- Price IMO is sentiment controlled, and not always in synch with fundamentals.
Haven't seen a post on the SP retrace currently in play.
Yours, MadChatter, is the first I've accidentally seen that refers to this now month old (and still the current situation) with the SP. And this bearishness has been visible since mid April immediately after the SP kissing the 500p area.
It commenced a bearish ultra-short term trend, then grew into a fully fledged short term trend - and still is.
However, Friday's close was magnificent and from candlesticks alone its screaming: Buy-Me.
However candlesticks are notoriously fickle and without any shame can be saying the polar opposite a day or two later. I prefer to follow the trends. And if Friday's close has any legs - it may be the end of the bearish downtrend, as you do have to take Friday's close seriously.
Notice the word 'may'. Re-examined the trend lines after that close and nothing disturbing the surface bar a ripple or two.
If this retrace continues, then the media will think up labels to stick on NCYT as the "reason". I'm not interested in reasons. I follow trends and pay no attention to 'reason'. Because if reason was infallible we'd all be multi-millionaires, many times over in stocks.
I did notice a very negative media article on NCYT that came out on Thursday that slapped a big "sell" notice on NYCT. That's a first in the media I think. And in contrast to that in the next para slapped a big "buy" on AVCT.
Their ahem "reason" for slapping a sell notice on this stock? I'll quote them:
". . . the shares have run well-ahead of the news flow, and we would be cautious about chasing the shares at current levels. Investors already holding the stock might want to think about locking in some profit. . . "
They then displayed a huge roundel in uppercase stating: 'SELL NOVACYT".
That might be a "reason" but not for me. Stocks do not travel in a ruler edged straight line, they zig and they zag; this is just a month long (so far) prolonged Zig.
Also there was mention on here of the Winnifrith hit job on NCYT. Can't read it because it's behind a subscription paywall. If anyone can post the full blog on what Winnifrith posted, I'd be appreciative. (I can then copy/ paste, if interested, the full article above which does a quick review of the 10 best bio tech stocks - as THEY see them as well as the NCYT review).
What I could see of Winnifrith's blog, starts off by bemoaning last year's full results; which are nothing to do with the new landscape - which was a big mistake, but would like to see if he has anything else - or just based on the old trading results.
I reiterate the SP is currently in a bearish downtrend. You'll drive yourself mad expecting stocks to show a reason. It's just sentiment fluctuating for a
Major interests
As at 9th April 2019, being the latest
practicable day prior to the publication
of this report, the Company had been
notified of the following shareholdings
amounting to 3 per cent or more of the
issued share capital of the Company:
Shareholder Number of
shares held
Percentage of
issued shares
ABN Amro Bank
N.V.
6,651,288 17.7%
.............
Legal and General
Group
2,515,909 6.7%
...........
Talence Selection
PME
1,461,313 3.9%
These are the reasons for the decline in sp.
We had had it specified on numerous occasions there are now NO holders over 3%....
When these have disposed of the relevant holdings is any ones guess.(but mine would be when the sp hit the £5 mark)
Latest i can find
ABN ...NIL holdings
L&G 2.96%
Talence selection NIL holdings.
Couple this with the large delayed off book trades and i think the reason for the decline is obvious...imo.
Again i ask why no notifications?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/31/second-wave-coronavirus-uk-winter-peak-covid/
from the 29th April update, in the manufacturing capacity:
This provides Novacyt with a total of six sub-contract manufacturers in addition to its own manufacturing sites
in Southampton and Camberley, which provides greater contingency and the flexibility to scaleup its manufacturing outputs beyond eight million tests per month when necessary.
So a scalable production which can adapt to increasing demand over 8M.
If they continue to increase production, it is because they face increasing demand as countries increase testing.
Look at India, huge population, initially they planned to do only antibody testing and finally shifted back to RT-PCR, they called “gold standard” for Covid-19 diagnosis.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/covid-19-diagnosis-india-shifts-focus-back-to-rt-pcr-tests/articleshow/75462357.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Different strands of the same success story parkez. IMHO.
Most likely novo will be planning post coronavirus. If there is significant uptake of their equipment and lots of NHS/care staff trained then they could branch into general diagnostics for infectious diseases, antibiotic sensitivity, gut biome and so on. All that would be required is different primers and potentially different extraction reagents.
"my only offer would be people worrying about longevity. It would appear that it will last another year"
Does this reasoning not also apply to the other share in a similar position that keeps rising?
With the increasing test numbers from the U.K. and NCYT being a major provider should be assuming substantial additional orders. Original order as I remember was for 7.6m tests over a six month period. With a step up towards 200k tests a day that initial order will soon be depleted.
Any thoughts?
Madchatter that's the head scratcher, my only offer would be people worrying about longevity. It would appear that it will last another year , more if you take on board Arlene fosters comment today.
You would then have at least a billion(lol over the year obviously) and more than 50% ebidta. You could do a lot of things with funds like that.
Forgive me asking an obvious question. If manufacturing capabilities is going up, substantially, why is the share price dropping?!
Very confusing
I am sure they would have been well aware of the impediment to the French placing orders.
@Quickdraw, the sales push only happened from the 27th onwards and coincided with the EM Analytical contract below;
https://www.lr.org/en-gb/latest-news/0526-em-analytical-certified-by-lr-in-just-20-days/
IMO the comments about reserving capacity for France would have been from future production capacity once it was scaled up to 8m, very much doubt they would turn down orders and hold stock for the bureaucratic French to make a decision.
The big question with the EM Analytical contract is whether that will push production beyond 10m or whether it was already included in their plans at the last RNS...
Totally agree BRod, we need few more large long term contracts, UK, WHO, Egypt in the bag. A large order in South America and India or the likes would be great. I belive the sudden sales rush over past 2 weeks was due to company shifting capacity reserved for France. I wag they reserved 3m a month for home country. I firmly expect the French cap to have been filled during this sales push.
On top of sales we also need updating on future capacaity plans and insight into equipment sales.
Unlikely. The jump in sales in April came from 6 month deal signed with phe which accounted for vast majority of sales taken (not filled) that month. If Egypt deal was for 40,000 kits and not tests which I think it is we should see £30-50m sales I would think. Need big contracts like phe, possibly Egypt I think to have more security in customer demand moving forward. Phe contract was for "at least" 288000 a week and confident realised sales to them will be higher.
"I think production capacity in April was 4m. I think we have gone 250000 in February, 2m March, 4m April, 8m may , 10m+ June."
Does this mean what we made in sales in April will be doubled in May, then doubled again in June???
I rate the team highly but I think 960m tests might be a slightly tall order even for a pharmaceutical giant like AstraZeneca . Nice to dream though;)
thank you but I am so disappointed to be right!!!!!