Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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I think there is a growing sense of inevitability developing here. As you say, another two licencing agreements to add to the many others on the books.
I don't think the market has accepted yet (somehow) the scale of the opportunity, or indeed the likelihood (inevitability?) or it happening. The Crispr/Vertex FDA approvals fully validate the platform - the treatment is seen as potentially reaching peak sales of $3bn. Assuming, for arguments sake, it peaks at $1bn and Maxcyte has an approx 3% royalty on the sales, then that would result in $30m additional income annual from this one treatment. On top of that is the consumables (no idea what that would be worth per year, but presumably 7 figures), and additional sales/lease of the machines.
Crispr/Vertex have outlined that they intend to open 50 treatment centers, and you would have thought that each would have a one of the Maxcyte machines to produce the treatment. Previous investor presentations have outlined that they cost $250k p/a for lease for clinical use. Perhaps crispr/vertex will buy the machines for each site, but assuming they pay $250k p/a lease for each of the 50 sites, then that alone equates to a further $12.5m p/a in revenue.
This one treatment could therefore sustain circa $45m p/a in revenue for Maxcyte (based on conservative figures), which exceeds the entire current revenue. And this is just one programme. There are 25 partnerships signed since 2017, and 125+ clinical licences related to the partnerships, of which 2 are approved, 1 is in a pivotal trial, 10 are in phase 1/2, and numerous others are in phase 1. All of these will be leasing the machines, paying for the consumables, and potentially paying milestones should they progress.
Yet here we are, with circa $200m in cash, $400m mcap, and therefore $200m EV - which is frankly almost unbelievable. The upside is huge and, as I say, now almost inevitable.
Just signed second SPL within a week. It would appear that the financial constraints that have afflicted the market over the last 12-18 months may, at last, be loosening. This could be good news for MXCT at long last.
Totally agree with you there Trotsky the tide will turn. Might have to wait a couple of years and with regards to the not so stellar guidance given over the last few Q's here is hoping they have been a bit more realistic in what they expect to achieve in a given time frame. The market does not like it when the peeps running a company can't forecast properly or are constantly over estimating what they expect, Better to under estimate and over deliver! Anyhoo it is what it is whole sectors are being battered right now but the tide will turn for both bio-tech and green/energy stocks! I'll continue to hold as I feel that when the tide does turn we should see multiples from here but the board needs to keep it real, I wont be adding anytime soon as who knows where the bottom is here given the state of the sector at the moment.
The sector has been in a mess for the last 12 months+. All of MXCT's customers are currently in cash conservation mode; their cash reserves are dwindling and there is no real public or private appetite for new cash raises. The tide will turn; it's just a question of when.
Not held these for 6m or so, but still on watchlist.
Interesting to look at their revenue guidance since last year. The 2022 results had revenue at $44m and guidance for 2023 was to increase 21 - 26% or $53-55m.
By Q1 they were guiding 8-12% growth or ~ $49m
By Q2 2023 would be comparable to 2022. So $40-44m
Now guidance is for a 20% fall to $34-36m.
At every quarter they have clearly underestimated the downturn in business and investors can only hope that this latest guidance is more realistic.
It’s difficult to make a strong investment case at present until we see signs of a recovery in the sector.
However, on the positive side with a market cap of £200m and cash balance of £165m equivalent, downside from here must be limited .
Been a pretty dismal performance of late to say the least. Does anyone have any thoughts on when we might expect a turn around in the SP? Any insights into the relentless fall?
The current share price makes no sense whatsoever. On 6th July it announced license deal with Lyell Immunopharma, shares closed at $4.39, on 10th July it announced license deal with Vittoria Biotherapeutics, shares closed at Vittoria Biotherapeutics $4.99. Today it announces license deal with Prime Medicine, shares currntly trading at $4.495. There have been 3 new deals in the space of 1 month. Maxcyte now has 23 strategic partnerships, each of which generates pre-commercial milestone revenue and the vast majority of which include sales-based payments. When will people wake up to this stock?
I tend to agree but I think Doerfler could have been more forthcoming. Based on what I've read recently, I believe BioTechs may have been dialing back their spend to reduce their cash burn and extend the "runway" because now is not a good time for them to try and go to the markets to raise new cash.
As a result, MXCT may not start to see any improvement before the start of H2, if not later, and Doerfler should have done a lot more to set out the background to the current fall and, potentially, prepare investors for an even worse H1 set of results.
Seems more like a temporary blip to me ...I'm not overly concerned given my time frames I'm looking at.
"Given the evolving operating environment, we are pleased with our first quarter results and the progress we have made towards delivering on our long-term financial and strategic initiatives"
Bit of a dopey statement. A c20% fall in recurring Q1 revenues and that's all Doug Doerfler has to say for himself! One is left to assume that, in the current financial environment (difficulties raising new equity investment and the banking problems in the US), businesses are conserving cash, using existing inventories etc. You also have to wonder whether the FDA putting a temporary stop on all new trials due to an unexplained death (I think it was early 2022 or late 2021) had a knock-on effect.
But Doeffler says nothing like that. He really needed to say a lot more about the "evolving operating environment". Leaving investors guessing is never good. Strike one against Doeffler as CEO IMHO. There's no doubt that Doeffler understands the technology and would make a good CTO but a good CTO does not necessarily a good CEO make. A good CEO needs to be a jack of all trades (not necessarily the master of one).
And I do not have an issue with that. Will top up if this drops sub 300. Long term holder and will hold until the 2030's.
How we all feeling about the last few months? Anyone still hear and any opinions for the year ahead? What say you of the outlook? I'm happy to hold and feel pretty indifferent at the moment. Still a very quiet board. How do you feel about that exercise of options today?
I hope so. Like Hailow I could do with some good news for a change. If it wasn't bad enough already Truss & Co managed to score a spectacular own goal last week; their ineptitude knows no bounds and they still plan to add an additional £40bn+ burden to the public purse without any figures to support their claims that both growth and cost cuts are achiebavle and will be sufficient to bridge the gap, and some. If you cut taxes simply to get back to parity then what purpose is served, other than to provide handouts to those who least need them and inflicting even more austerity on those who can least afford it.
Their spl factories are now opening or being fda approval. The investment in facilities is a very large sign of confidence across the board. As 2023 approaches this is looking stellar
This is a very quiet board. If anyone is interested I now have my head above water based on my average. Nothing concrete in terms of financials recently but the signing of the licence last week seems to be contributing to the increased positivity and bringing buyers with it. Hoping for a prolonged rise to help with my otherwise battered portfolio.
As it says above...I think this stock really needs a bit of a promo push because nobody seems to have an awful lot to say despite the fantastic prospects, partnerships and potential. Still looking very cheap to me. Do your own research but this one is certainly worth a deep dive in my opinion. You can start by checking out finance.yahoo.com/news/rga-investment-advisors-considers-maxcyte-150009889.html
stalker aert go back under your rock fool
negative here too I see....
looks a bit ****
The sector is out of favour and the bears/shorters are feasting. Personally, I'm gritting my teeth and bearing it. The way I see it the so-called "investor gurus" have been pumping up growth shares for years, justifying higher and higher multiples, but started to do a volte-face around October last year (it's interesting that financial newspapers were still promoting growth shares at the expense income shares early this year). These things move in cycles and I'm sure that the "gurus" will be back to promote growth shares in the not too distant future; the opportunity to keep the pump'n'dump gravy train on the road is just too great.
As regards MXCT, I see them as providing the shovels for the "genetic" gold rush to come and still take some comfort from the subscription in February 2021, before the NASDAQ listing (in hindisght the worst decision ever made). Their keystone investors are highly unlikely to consider any offer below their £7 subscription price and IMHO wouldn't currently settle for less than £10 per share.
I am surprised as you are.
It was good functioning share till covid!
“AIM volatility and lack of interest are a real turn off for IIs and deter PIs too. Doesn't make sense but a good time to buy and top up.”
It’s got nothing to do with AIM and everything to do with the dual NASDAQ listing. It’ll bottom when the XBI index does. At £100m enterprise value I’m not sure why a rival or bigger fish wouldn’t take it out?
Any ideas where the bottom comes in for these guys...surely we do not see sub 2?? Long and scaling in from time to time. So where do you think we can expect to see maximum pain here? Any notions? Thanks in advance.
Further drop today of 6% on only a small volume of sells (£50k) with a SP drop of 70% in last 9 months. Considering the company is well funded the drop is hard to fathom. Total cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments were $246.3 million as of March 31, 2022.
AIM volatility and lack of interest are a real turn off for IIs and deter PIs too. Doesn't make sense but a good time to buy and top up. Other bios are in a similar position but it is tough to take and must be a big blow to management as well.
In case you missed our webinar with MaxCyte (MXCT), the recording can be found on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/KkVWrJuJSmI