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There are some underlying political connections in our Pirity exploration drill.
https://efe.com/en/other-news/2023-08-15/newly-inaugurated-paraguay-president-taiwan-is-not-just-an-ally-but-a-brother/
Indeed.... Here's the FT's take on Argentina’s “Milei-Quake”, it says Aftershocks are coming....
https://www.ft.com/content/f4f46aaa-b777-409d-8766-d1cf8962d73d
President's estimated time of spud is "late August or early Sept" so mid to late September seems a reasonable bet! Haha
The key time to watch, will be when PL visits the Paraguay site for the day of the spud. When spud is announced, I may take a few more on to see if there is any market reaction during drilling. Not before though, as still not convinced this will spud until mid to late Sept at the earliest!
...the rig at the Tapir well, Pirity Concession, Paraguay should be in place and subject to a few checks should be ready to start drilling. Game on......
They have spent a lot on workovers for little gain imv, and increased debt of course. Perhaps I should have spelt that out better.
That said I remain positive for Q4.
GLA
It does make sense to structure the communications in such a way to downplay chances of success in order to minimize any loses if Paraguay is a duster.
All the other companies and spin-offs are just potential at the moment. They could all eat up money and then fail. Or one of them could turn into the trailblazer in it's field and be an incredible success. But you can't price for that.
The current MEN SP though is ridiculously low based on any normal P/E EBITDA x forward earnings valuation. The reason that the SP is so low is not because MEN doesn't have oil & gas reserves, or because it's production figures are low, because the production is good, reserves are good and prospects could be great. MEN has a low SP because years of not delivering on promises have made the Market give up on it. Market sentiment is very much amount momentum though, and, MEN does have many irons in the fire, and success in any one of them could make MEN return like Phoenix from the Ashes . Cue Baddiel & Skinner singing.... and Jason Lee turning up with a pineapple on his head....
Understand, but the current value is way undervalued, when you just look at Atom MC and % held by MEN so it’s not as though the value will get too high to then crash on an uncommercial drilling campaign. My main issue is why is PL doing this via Stockmarket, and not just privately, clearly he can afford it! Bigger picture maybe, but if so, how long is the strategy going to last and for how long will us LTH’s stay invested!!!
Loosing his audience could be a deliberate strategy to deter traders, a major spike could loose a lot of LTH like us and the destruction of value in the aftermath of a duster would seriously undermine the group implementations. Its one of the reasons behind the structure of the corporate update, a number of carrots dangling. Any in specie offer in the mix at this point could be a mess. I'm not sure if the Paraguay delays are deliberate or not, but it sure is adding to the excitement. It certainly feels stage managed to reduce the downside effects on the SP.
Agreed but a mere reflecton on poor performance. The ducks appear to be lining up nicely though and with activity mostly outside of Argentina.
With a bit of luck, we may be in a different position come Q4.
GLA
Looks like the actual spud for the drill will be the only thing to help to move the share price and maybe this is in doubt if any traders/speculators will even get involved with the stated low CoS. It is clear that PL has lost his audience and can’t seem to get anyone to start to listen in, let alone invest any new cash. My end of year review time is fast approaching but on the positive there seems to be many things happening - just not sure if the market trust PL anymore though!
The spread is ridiculous, this needs some volume/interest to get this going!
Starting to be real progress. This was from June 2021 and interestingly a 30% expected a higher chance of success.
..........................
Background to the Pirity Concession
The Pirity Concession, in which President holds 100% and operates, is an exploration block in the Chaco area of Paraguay.
President acquired its initial interest in Pirity in 2012 and conducted an extensive exploration campaign in 2013/14 that commenced with the acquisition of over 1,000 km of 2D seismic and 850 square km of 3D seismic and culminated in the drilling of two exploration wells. Whilst the exploration wells identified a petroleum system in the north of the block with significant shows of hydrocarbons whilst drilling, no commercial production was achieved.
It subsequently became clear from these results and further detailed analysis of data that the most prospective exploration area in Paraguay was the Delray complex of prospects containing what the Company estimates are over 260 MMbo of Pmean Unrisked Resources in place.
It is this complex that bears the nearest similarity to the prolific long life Palmar Largo field complex 100 km across the border in Argentina. It has been determined that, of the usual exploration factors to be taken into account, there is good reservoir rock present in Delray capable of prolific production if charged and an excellent four way closure with seal, with the main exploration risk being migration from the hydrocarbon source. President estimates a 30% chance of success for the exploration well.
Since the previous exploration campaign, President has identified at least one proven analogue to demonstrate that hydrocarbons have migrated some distance from the source rock being the same source which successfully charged the reservoir in Palmar Largo.
Eccles, Unable to open I think the more important of the two links you gave. Band width problem.
Anyhow further reading has suggested there are possibilities for getting oil out of the area.
Thank you
From an 2013 American study.
Sub-basins include the Pirity, Carandayty, and Curupayty troughs. Oil and gas
production occurs in Bolivia and Argentina but not in Paraguay, which has experienced much
less drilling. Fewer than 10 petroleum wells have been drilled in the Pirity Sub-basin of
Paraguay, all pre-1987, where no commercial production has occurred. However, the Argentina
portion of the Basin (Olmedo Sub-basin) has produced over 110 million bbls of oil from the
Upper Cretaceous Yacoraite and Palmer Largo formations and that basin continues to be
productive.
Apart from the international border, no geologic discontinuity separates the two
sub-basins.
Eccles just noticed your replies, thank you. I think I originally bought around that time (mega loss on my book). I will look at these tonight/tomorrow AM. Thank you. In my head, I do not see the advantage of trucking a mega amount. Lets hope it is big enough to justify a pipeline! Here's hoping, but then coming up ten years now!
Another couple of snippets here, scroll down for 2nd article on Vaca Muerta challenges and opportunities. 3rd article is partly on Paraguay hopes for hydrocarbon riches at Tapir
https://energiesnet.com/latin-american-regional-insights-can-vaca-muerta-reach-1-million-bpd-may-31-2023/
There was a study done previously on getting the oil and gas out to refineries and export, but its probably 10 years old now. Its an issue but far from insurmountable and oil could be trucked out and if it a big field then it will be piped at sometime in the future. Let's hope for a successful well any following problems are going to be minor.
You'll find a graphic and details here section 4 and more on Tapir section 7 worth a scan even if it gets a bit technical, but it is from 2014. In pdf format
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.geologiadelparaguay.com.py/President_Energy_Report.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjGw7eGvayAAxXoQUEAHeKkB-MQFnoECBwQAQ&usg=AOvVaw07cd17Y3UzO1snZXCQDdJe
What's another delay?!? At least it's on it's way. I remember being super excited about this when it happened ten years ago, and bought shares at 30p (in old money = £60 a share now) thinking it was going to make me rich.... maybe this time it'll work.........
GLA