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Last operational update RNS,
The Company has had its application for land access for 2024 operations approved by the Matad District Committee. A land use agreement is now being prepared which, once signed, will allow 2024 operations to go ahead commencing with completion operations on the Heron 1 well
Did read last few posts this morning and say again better if you do not Buy and wait for RNS - no problem.
About Petro Matad needing to RNS physical document signing - will be nice but they do NOT have to if Market already notified of AGREEMENT.
If anyone disagree no problem - disagree.
Point about local guvornor I answered many time thru reference of Land Law which governor cannot override. This give AUTHORITY to Local Mata Sum in this decision. This is what I mean by lot of posters here who do not really understand this points.
Do not know how they calculate there 'chance of good RNS' figures lol.
My view is this comment about staying vigilant is because local governor is against Petro Matad BUT being research in issues is understanding he have no legal way.
This is why Company are already preparing for Operations and which RNS will set out.
Again if you do not think so please do not Buy if this is what you Really think. 😏
Rest of us - Countdown to header!
🦉
Roxy2020 ; That sounds like a realistic kind of assessment. I tend to agree. I think that notions of 30p to 40p on issuance of the permit are a mixture of wishful thinking and overt ramping. There will definitely be a sharp pullback after the spike - it may happen on the same day, or over several days, but it will happen.
Possibly the price might be supported at the top of the spike for a day or two whilst the MM distribution phase happens. I think they keep buying near the top so as to support the price so that the high mark up retail price stays elevated for as long as possible. Once the distribution phase ends they let it drop.
Right now I assume that the MMs are accumulating in the same way that traders stock a warehouse at wholesale prices, ready to mark it up to retail price levels once a rally starts. During the sharp rally with very heavy demand, people will pay the big mark ups on the wholesale prices that the MMs bought at.
I also found this from a 2018 Reuter's article ;
"The country is challenging because of its extreme weather and a legal system and young democracy that have caused problems for international investors, including tax wrangles and contractual disputes.
Petro Matad's CEO Mike Buck said in an interview Mongolia was offering favourable terms for oil exploration and had untapped potential because, during the era of Soviet control over Mongolia, Russia had plenty of oil of its own, while China explored its reserves just over the border. "
I'm sure there'll be pullback too but the first RNS will effectively lead to a number of other significant RNSs in sort order.
Petro Matad should have been working on contracts, funding etc to make a fast start on the Heron makeover, this followed shortly thereafter by flow rates and news of other planned wells for the Heron Field will keep ratcheting up the SP and Investor expectations.
This IMHO will shoot up to 8-9p as soon as RNS lands but it will go south a bit in the following days until there are actual boots on the ground in Mongolia.
So the ride is good and productive but its a long and much slower than some anticipated
Supersport ; I agree that if we get the permit signed that it will spike quite dramatically. Then it will definitely do a sharp pullback as trading bots take profits and LTHs who were locked in exit with a decent profit.
I see this everyday with small cap Nasdaq stocks in real time - a huge spike up on a positive news catalyst with several hundred % the usual volume, followed by a very sharp retracement, which can often be something like 50% of the spike.
The danger is to get over excited and buy in at the top of the spike whilst the likes of Hamm are bouncing around saying ' buy, buy, buy guys - you will never see these kind of prices ever again. ' People who know what they are doing will play it right if there is a big spike.
@Investor .
Yes I agree and the point i am simply making is that this is a very good ride and it will bear fruit. A
On the other hand dealing with obstacles and foreign underdeveloped countries can have obstacles and hurdles to overcome as we have already seen.
Supersport - I think we all just want to see 10p+ now. Maybe with the exception of Prof who wants to short!
Fairenough Doc you've been here much longer than I .however things are much more positive now. yet Sp is languishing because the past mainly.
IMHO this will spike on positive news then retrace probably to 10p where we should be.
Doc 83 - ok - sorry, I see what you mean now.
Roxy2020 ; I agree with what you say. I think the problem is that some people aren't mentally detached enough to know when they are just indulging in wishful thinking, rather than sticking strictly to facts.
I guess with speculative Aim shares you do tend to get people who just think that they can get rich quick, without fully understanding exactly what they are getting involved with. I can't believe that some a few on this board have mocked anybody analysing charts for example - even though the price action in the last few years has clearly revolved around technical indicators such as support and resistance levels. And the trading bots which the city uses extensively now are all programmed to work with technical indicators.
A positive RNS would be more than good this will rocket on news .
Mms want your shares that much I do know ..
Wigster - thanks, took the words right out of my mouth. There have been many instances of large falls following RNS's that have been about delays.
Supersport, just cast you eyes back to May 22nd last year. RNS wasn't actually that bad, but it was further delays. SP fell from 6p+ to I think mid 4's on the day, then continuing to fall into the 3's within a month.
Investor33 - I'm not saying that. I'm saying (IMO) I think it is now less than a 50% chance that MB will announce at the AGM that we are about to start producing oil, and that instead we are still facing delays.
There is a tendency here by some to assume that a RNS would definitely be the start of a long climb northwards.
There are yet a few more hurdles to jump before the race is won as always mentioned at Aintree.
I suggest that an RNS would be good but a few more hurdles would need to be overcome before this becomes a 5x bagger.
GLA
Wos ; the' intel ' in the last RNS also stated that the governor might try to block the issue of the land access permit, and that the company would remain ' vigilant ' about this possibility. You and Hamm never mention this for some reason.
Does anybody know roughly when the drilling season tends to start on average ? It it sometime in May ?
Doc - there are still 18 days until the AGM - so I'm not sure how you calculate < 50% chance of an RNS before then.
Funny - I just found an article from Dec 2010 which read as follows ;
"Petro Matad also updated investors on its analysis of the highly successful 2010 drilling programme, which found oil in three successive exploration holes (DT-1 to DT-3).
The success of these three wells propelled the company to become one of the most followed AIM-listed explorers in the second half of 2010.
Its shares experienced a massive rally from 45 pence at the start of drilling to a new high at 199 pence back in October. "
I don't think people actually understand what they read here, land access already given approved, just land use required even plan B will even get done soon by passing the dornod guvnor if he doesn't play soon,
It's all approved by main government so its happening so to state this will drop 50% on a delay meaning of no RNS by AGM is just very very silly,
I believe we will get something by then as buck knows exactly where this is and when it will need signatures, I'm sure his got a date to fly out there already,
And this is the game buy shares and wait for it to happen, matd are I. A very good place now once go ahead given it will transform
Master 82/wos keep us updated on any info from the meeting yesterday if you find any please, just a basic land use agreement once drafted up and signed and most likely had something to do with both meetings that have taken place this month aswell, here's hoping we get something next week but with the time elapsed on already we are closer then ever , good luck all
Supersport. On 19th Jan the SP was 4.2p, on the 29th Feb it was 2.75p...or a drop of 35%. And yes, it has of course climbed back up again, but swings of 30% + or - aren't unheard of here. IMO if there are more delays announced at the AGM, then it could very well see a similar drop over the course of a month or so. If its positive news, can I see the SP being 40p+ in that timescale? Nope. But I would dearly love to be wrong :-)
ATB
Sell test is amazing. Can sell 1m+.
Buy very limited.
Big boys will own majority of shares.
Don't be left behind.
Enjoy the rise guys.
10 bagger no doubt = LP/H production
Doc 30% Drop in your opinion .
Well in my opinion this will actually 10 bag here.
Happy to risk your 30% drop which of course is balderdash.
Agree and to make it clear...
MB HAS to announce material information immediately. So either it is still not done and probably more delays and SP DOWN 50%(my guess) or it isnnot material information and SP will not go up on next rns... simple. Even mr wos should be able to understand logic SiR...
SP could easily drop 50% if there is nothing solid and no permit announced at or before the AGM. If drilling and pimping is delayed in anyway, this will not be well received IMO.
It's OK Manx, Doc and everyone else starting to get concerned...the positive RNS will be here "any day now!!" and it will "10-bag minimum" instantly and it will "BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM" and there will be rockets everywhere and everything!!! 100%...WOS, Hamm et al have told us ad-infinitum for months on end, so it must be true.
I will certainly enjoy my humble pie if it does happen.
GLA
Mid April and still nothing. The AGM has to be very positive, i.e. we are (or about to) start producing oil. Any further delays or excuses whatsoever will IMO mean the SP falling 30%+ on the day. And also very likely a raise. To reiterate for those with a sub par IQ - I do not want this to happen. But I am concerned and IMO now below a 50% chance that we’ll get the unequivocally good news we need at the AGM.
No doubt here or in the SP . Notification will come in time
Just saying !