Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
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I just thought I'd pop in to see how everyone was doing. Hope all is well.
All pubs were reviewed based on their performance over the past 5 years and worse performing pubs put up for sale.
I know for a fact some of the pubs up for sale were or had started to turn things around I.e. new management etc but as the performance was based over a 5 year period there up for sale.
Barchid, social media has changed the way the younger generation socialise in my view. Gone are the days when you used to pop down to the pub to catch up with friends, it’s all posted over Facebook etc these days.
Quickdip
A very interesting link you posted and is certainly something I have mentioned many times on this board, living in London it is truly astonishing how few pubs are really busy and also how many have closed for good.
One thing Skynews probably deliberately avoided mentioning is how so few younger people go to pubs these days so why is this ?
My guess is that with recreational drugs affording that age group the opportunity of getting hammered for much less than putting down a large number of pints would cost them is very likely the reason.
A culture change which can only hurt pubs long term.
In March 20 the SP fell off a cliff to low 20's as did all stocks when the Covid Lockdown had impact. The SP gradually recovered to stand at a high in March 21. The began a slow consistent decline to where it is now. The factors you mention have had an effect as for most stocks. The remaining issue for MARS, is and will remain for a good time, Debt.
Sales are up when compared against lockdown and not forgetting the inclusion of sales from the Brain's estate which only had it first years inclusion in the accounts to 30th September last. So Brain's figures have inflated overall sales .
Sales must be judged against the net profit they produce.
Selling anything under duress is never good, but lets take your view. justaquickone, the pubs are not performing. OK, that being the case in the current climate, who will wish to buy at the values suggested?
Not sure all the 61 pubs are not performing, for instance the Mitre Oak at Stourport, is in good location have a reputation, well patronised and so on.
When your back is against the wall you liquidate assets that should readily sell, profitability and location can only help the sale.
Any bottom fishers have the opportunity now, to take a gamble, but always remember never invest more than you are prepared to lose.
AIMO
Meant to say -
Sales are up, non performing pubs are being sold, strategy to reduce debt and assuming WW3 doesnt kick off I see Mars as a good recovery play.
'Keep topping up and hoping, but just remember the SP has been on a constant downward trend since March 2021 when at 130p'
With respect the share price wasnt £1.30 March 21, maybe 2020 and the reason for the decline in SP is due to fact pubs were shut , closely followed by russia / Ukraine war, increased overheads and looming fear of a recession.
Sales are up, non performing pubs are being sold, strategy ito reduce and assuming WW3 doesnt kick off I see Mars as a good recovery play.
You can't argue with the delusional...........your only weapons are facts, reason and logic!
Understand the firm are expecting a very good weekend for family get togethers, the next sales figures will be very good. We have seen the sector recovering strongly now post pandemic. Seen Wetherspoon and Whitbread figs and we should be near the top of the tree, as the last release showed more sales profit per share here than even M&B.
We can see the small town shorts starting to panic here now, who appear to write a lot, no doubt becoming even more negative with every post, it is nice for them to think of me, but I do not need their help and to be honest they are quite boring. They obviously are starting to lose bad money -I don't even bother to read their comments which are at complete odds with the CEO and BOD of Marston's. Maybe they are on the wrong Company page? GLA with good not bad money lets make the shorts pay! Although the govt is also giving us incentives on draft ale now which will help boost home sales than ever before on reduced prices!
Oh Dear SC, you cannot see the wood for the trees or are so under water in danger of .......
"Sales overtaking Loans", really, Sales are ok providing profit margins are good. Loans do'nt just disappear they are an obligation which Company's must meet otherwise Funders(Banks) will fore-close. The mood music here should alert any astute investor.
The prices in Supermarkets is just a reflection of Tesco's and co preserving market share by exerting pressure on Beverage producers. The margin on bottled/canned beers in supermarkets is miniscule after raw material costs, production, transportation, packaging and excise duty, the profit, if at all, is pence..
Look at the fundamentals. If sales have been so resilient why have loans payments been missed and now further reviews of loan conditions? Conditions yet to be fully publicised.
Keep topping up and hoping, but just remember the SP has been on a constant downward trend since March 2021 when at 130p.
The portents are not good.
Rates still very cheap I remember when they were 10 to 14%. Most Companies interested in this type of take over will have no problems, in fact more than likely it will be from a source over the pond where the dollar is so high investing in sterling comps looks very attractive. One needs to looks at the whole picture here in my opinion not just be isolated to the Uk! i.e. Whitbread are expanding fast into Garman with 60 new Hotels in the Last year, but many American comps will see this as a very cheap buy. Even the Marstons Management might decide to buy back shares and buy in for a Management takeover but first they will have to reduce the size of the Company ....errrh that's what they are doing now isn't it? Again one needs to think to a wider range of options? here we go again -enough said back to my Gold mining shares that are making a fortune at the moment. Not sure if I should sell them today and buy more Marstons or not. Keep watching!
Spot on......we are in the early stages of a credit crunch. Banks will not be as lenient as they used to be and funding a buyout will be difficult with current interest rates.
To me the Sales figs are the key. Sales will be overtaking any loans. Most Comps in the Uk have them by the way, the advantage now is the support we are getting on Draft beer sales (See last budget). Hence the cheaper price in Supermarkets, etc, plus new investment in plant/machinery, etc fully tax deductible, not sure if all of their Elec. Lorrys are paid for yet? We hear sales are now above pre-pandemic levels (I am not surprised by this). Most would rather be in a Marston's pub than queuing for days at Dover for what? A holiday abroad? Erh? Most are enjoying life post lock down in the Uk to be honest with better Beer, and a good Marston's pub for a good carvery (fair value too) for the family. This pub chain is strengthening in my opinion and next sales figs/updates will be very interesting (surely due out soon for the 1st qtr of the yr?). Then we should soon get warmer weather to help further. All recent Comp. releases not as the doomsters would have liked either. DYOR - worth a read of the past reports Company moving in the right direction, and I have been topping up and will hold my shares for a few years to make the most of the rising value.
I've topped up prior to the New tax year, why? It's looking too cheap for me and I expect and influx of buys in the new tax year.
GLA, DYOR, AIMHO etc...
On your 2nd point, If by some miracle someone does pay £675,000, I dare say you wouldn’t be the only one caught with your trousers down!
Having fixed energy prices the company was unable to meet it's obligations on Loan agreements, consequently breached previously agreed waivers. Those waivers have recently been renegotiated. BNB Paribas are not so generous as the previous Bond Holder, HSBC, 2 new Banks have come in with Loan facilities. Not sure how these new banks can be regarded as a vote of confidence as infered here. More of a worry the existing Funders, having already approved previous waivers, did not feel comfortable with the liabilties Marstons have built. The company are yet to explain the additional £40m loan debt just agreed. We are yet to hear details of the revised Loan agreements in terms of interest rates. We know some are floating, this indicates others are fixed. Those rates are fundamental to the financial health of MARS and how debt will be reduced below £1Billion. The existing sales (61) if completed at values held within the accounts, will help although why many 1000's have just been spent on The Crooked House and now for sale, does raise questions. desparation???
Talk of buy-out, predators would have been circling along time ago. The SP may look cheap to some but lingers in the 30;s The Platinum opportunity (107p) was denied to Shareholders, we were not told until the 3rd offer and then as an after-thought, RF was busily agrreeing a deal with his mate at Brains, who were in dire trouble, almost bankrupt.
In so far as Goodwill value, forget it, it is an intangible asset where Brands have value, however Carlsberg will have a say in that.
Apart from the current asset sales, Marstons must retain at least 650 pubs as agreed in the JV with Carlsberg. This does not include the 100 or so Brains Pubs which are only Leased. Marstons room for maneuvre is limited. The 40% share of the Brewery may need to go.
If the current share price is so attractive PI's can pile in, but be aware of the risks.
Gentlemen , for all you Pedigree drinkers out there , get yourselves down to Morrisons in Kidderminster , bottled Pedigree at £1.00 a bottle less a 4 for 3 offer - amazing value !!!! Yes I know it is not the same as a draught pint but come on look at the price!!! On a more salutary note, it in my opinion, just highlights the dire straits that Marstons are in - cash flow is everything especially when one has serious debts to service ! As a long term shareholder I will go to the wire but it will not stop me taking a view on my invested money . Finally , two points to get clear 1) I am not a Morrisons shareholder and 2) If they sell The Crooked House for £675.000 I will show my rear end in Burtons window !!!
Hi Jed, gas prices are coming down sharply now and marstons are stuck with 2022 prices until 2025. Perhaps they think they can get round it by selling the pubs off? dyor
Sharprite
I’m rather perplexed by your logic that it would be a red flag if these shares drop another 10% into the twenties. Surely it’s best to sell at 33 than panic sell if the price drops to the 20’s.
The NAV is very attractive and is what drew me to invest here BUT it’s approx 80% debt so there’s not much room for error in the valuations. They’ve valued the crooked house at £675k, not so sure about that to say the least. A fire sale would reduce the equity value to nothing. GLA DYOR
As I read it there are large institutional holders of this stock, and recently the Welcome Trust has declared. The borrowing is secured with two new banks joining the provision, and I'm sure yhey would have done some form of due diligence. So, I find it strange to keep seeing this price drift. I still have my modest holding and sitting on a large loss at the moment.
Hope for better things later this year
Hi Quick, you say it's the management that's the problem and then rant on about Fixing gas at it's high, but you don't know that you don't know they haven't fixed the gas and electric at a very competitive price because in the trading up-date in Jan they said.
The Group's electricity costs are now hedged for the entirety of FY2023 until the end of September 2023, with no change to earnings guidance. The Group's gas price is fixed until the end of March 2025 with no additional incremental spend anticipated.
So that looks to me like they have everything planned in and under control. Maybe todays price is a very good buy in .
Agreed, cannot believe what those "clowns" have done to this company..
Rate this as a strong buy at this price. As someone said if an offer of £1 was refused why not come back again for an even better deal. This Company has been going for over 189 years since 1834 I cannot see anything to suggest it will not be trading for another 189 years. The doomsters who are short tail shorters need to look at the goodwill of the business which alone must be worth more than a quid. Down today for the last day of this years trading and some are profit taking or offsetting their losses from other gains. Good time to buy some more in my opinion!
The management is the problem here. They turned down a take over above £1 per share not long ago. Fixed the gas when prices were sky high. Now selling off the assets to pay the debt down even though rates are reducing. Not one for me, glad I got out when I did. GLA DYOR