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By the way, not a current share holder but have held in the past but still look in. I feel my view is as a neutral but Marstons has to evolve in order to survive. To block any JV will not be good for the sector. All it will do is give a bigger market share to companies like GK.
just my opinion of course.
FairD
Lots of micro pubs opening in Lancashire. All seem to be busy and popular. If and only if your scenario occurs then it would be the JVs that will suffer increasing footfall in the startup pubs with low operating costs.
In this Country we all have free voice as far as our own interests are concerned. Maybe Marstons should conduct a survey and see how many CAMRA drinkers are affected. I am sure the number will be a minority? Perhaps Carlsberg are commercially aware that in the past 30years more and more people have moved over to premium larger - who knows? I understand that in fact Marstons will keep the pubs seperate and the JV is only for distribution rights in anycase. However going forward Marstons have already made statements that they are not intending to cut any beers - so keep buying them and they will brew them - simple. They is no point at all producing a beer that is only drink occasionally by a few cyclists and hikers and when it goes off the majority has to be thrown away. if Marstons stop producing a beer perhaps they can sell the recipe to camra and they can make it themselves.
Leas and roll that dice. It is good to see some support here -I have been trying to promote us here and now the so called shorters down talking the share being Unfairtrader and Barchildren have an opportunity to sell (if they even own any shares).
The Marstons web refers to two instances of a new beers coming out soon and if CAMRA feel less will be sold they are mistaken. As I have said previously a whole lot less will be served if the unthinkable happens and Marstons do not survive. So perhaps if they want more Beers rather than moaning they should actually buy a large number of shares in support? Have any less beers been sold since Marstons has taken over so many other brewers? I don't think so. If Camra keep buying the beers then Marstons will keep brewing them. Simple - just keep buying the beers. Use it or lose it. IMHO.
My understanding as inferred in CAMRA representation is many independant and craft Brewers are concerned about their access to Marstons pubs will be limited even denied as Carlsberg will likely shut them out,.They ( Carlsberg) want control of Marston's pubs . The JV makes specific reference and possibly something the CMA will be looking at.
My understanding is the P1 stage of the CMA investigation will be concluded BY the 21st. So any announcement may come at anytime before then. I also understand from research that they cannot block the JV but delay it until a P2 investigation is conducted.
It is CAMRA that has stuck it's oar in with the following statement 'However, consumer group CAMRA (the Campaign for Real Ale) said today it harbours “serious concerns” about anti-competitive effects of the JV, including “market foreclosure for small brewers, which will reduce choice for beer drinkers and pub-goers”.
“This is why the CMA must make sure that any merger does not stifle fair competition, access to market for brewers,?and ensure decent consumer choice of beer in pubs up and down the country,” CAMRA chief executive Tom Stainer said.'
Surely the CMA will look at this but competition will be stifled anyway with this pandemic and the only way of keeping pubs open and brewers profitable is by cutting costs.
This is one of my best investments - easy 100% uplift coming soon
If the press office stick to their word in that the firm were concentrating on getting the JV through first, then if they are not going to mislead shareholders, we should know of the outcome by then, or at least of some progress?
Keep watching!
@yoyoma
You play a fine tune on that Cello !
This is slightly later in October than the last few years and as the lady said it likely would be delayed due to CMA this year so no "inside knowledge" was needed, as you rightly point out.
@ Fairdealer
An astute response to the predicted 80p SP.
I am awaiting the first one to forecast triple figures, it can't be too long as the permabulls can never await the declared figures they always seem to know everything in advance....
I agree and reading a post by a lady on here she also stated that this would be the area it would be released. Looking more into the JV deal I see that they (CARS-B) have probably the best layers in the UK to manage their venture. Excellent win rate looking at drinks sector. Lets hope the CMA make that decision soon to reduce the nerves of some. If the RNS is planned for the 21 Oct then the CMA would have to notify MARS the day before surely this would be done via good old fashion letter not just an email so perhaps the 20th Oct is the very latest they would make a decision meaning it could come before then?
I am watching this from a previous post.
https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/carlsberg-uk-holdings-limited-marston-s-plc-merger-inquiry#history
CARS JV deal:
https://www.freeths.co.uk/2020/06/03/freeths-llp-advises-carlsberg-on-780m-jv-with-marstons-plc/
I guess Telsa rocket man will be up soon so it'll be good to hear his side from his "contact" lol
sparster, best fill your boots now and almost double your money!!!
I think we’ll be up at 80p by then ;)
Trading update to 3 October due out on 21 October according to rns.
A date for our diaries !
We are not far off a vaccine being made available - most scientists are already testing at stage 3 - before full release.
Marstons appear to have looked to the future with the Carlsberg suggested JV -which will help distribution -Post Brexit.
Recent sales figures from rivals all show an increase over the 1st Qtr as Pubs have since come out of lockdown.
Marstons also unlike rivals sell large quantities of beer from the supermarkets and are not reliant on one form of income.
The current share price is already reflecting the market and over 50% down on pre-epidemic levels.
One just has to wait. I as well as anyone else cannot say when the pandemic leaves us -but it will and when it does this share is one of the best for future potential gains. I am sure fund trackers will come in here once we all know more regarding the vaccine situation. GLA
Lot's of bickering on this thread lol...
I still 'like' the share at this price (i did actually buy higher so at that time liked it then...) I have always said and brought as a LT investment. If ( and it is a big if for a majority of the hospitality sector) Marstons get through COVID in relatively good shape they should have a good platform to capitalize and push on the other side...
It is a risk ... yes. But LT gains to be had IMO.
That said i can see this going lower again before it goes up as the Covid bad news isn't going away anytime soon!
Amazing how the shorters come out now of their holes all together isn't it after we have had such a great time recently-safety in numbers I presume? However I agree with Unfairtrader on one thing his "push me back bike" would be far more reliable if he even had any shares. Never mind.
I see Diageo and Whitbread announced increased recent sales so keep watching and you might be able to afford your first Skoda! Ha,ha. Mind you I see your RDShell are now well under £10 which is what I said would happen. Keep on charging!!
The big bird emerges with sand in his ears!
Oh dear should read Which....Tesla is the 2 nd least reliable brand on the market. He knows how to pick them!!!
Relax and don't fret there are a few on this board who feel this is a short term creamer whilst the majority know this is long term. if you want quick returns look at education providers and mineral sector. DYOR
I am sitting quiet with the majority - waiting for the JV to be confirmed and also watching that unlike the other Brewers Marstons gain pleasure in re-opening such as The Roebuck Harborough that sold so much beer it caught fire!! Just like all those Ferrari and Lamborghini drivers trying to keep up with my Tesla - happy days will be here very soon!!
“Nanu nanu,” “This is Mork calling SuperCharger, come in SuperCharger,
You are quiet...… Hope to heavens you're not out there joy riding your Tesla whilst under the influence of Pedigree. Little birds tell me that watching the Marstons official website is like waiting for this to shoot up to 73p.
This is simple all have to follow their own gut instincts and not those who always bleat negative comments in the hope the share price falls and then they suddenly buy back in and talk this share up. The so called in and outers who will say anything negative to get you on their side, even miss reading RNS messages to get you on their side. Well I am sorry but everyone can see the shorters from the trees. Sow the seeds today and longer term you will have a Mighty Oak -rather than living off others infortune. Think about it if the so called experts held shares (& voting rights) then they would express their comments through the official channels and certainly would not be promoting negativity which would affect their own holding. Everyone can see who they are a mile off.
As said before even Boris has tried to stop the shorts being served after 10.pm. However on a serious note I just wished he stopped the shorts on the share trading business in its entirety. Only that I actually feed off them as if they have shorted it means they will have to buy back in and therefore the share price itself is artificially low and in my book time to buy. Not long to go to have a proven vaccine and then think about it are beer drinkers ever going to go away? Will the largest premium beer/ ale brewer in the Uk with four world beer awards fail. I would rather be in here than most other Beer producers as they do not rely on just one source of income. However if you want to reduce your risks a great time to buy a tracker.
Notoriously keep their head buried, not a bad idea considering the miniscule brain.
The whole Hospitality sector is in seige mode. Hyper ramping is not going to disguise the serious economic pressures on the vast majority of Companys.
We hear nothing about the huge debt pile here (£1.4 billion at the last count) here just a "canny move to get a JV with Carlsberg". Does our astute correspondent regard selling a collection of Pubs to Admiral last Autumn as " a canny move".?
The JV was refered to the CMA by the European Union, any guesses why? It is foolhardy to 2nd guess the outcome...no one knows. The Breedon /Cemex takover was thought straightforward however CMA had other ideas and have required changes to that merger.
Unless I am missing something can see no reason why a Trading Update has to wait until December. Hell we could be in quite a pickle by Christmas.
In these challenging and unprecidented time s, Long term Investors should consider underlying Asset values which with company failures looming will give a degree of comfort. Of course short-termers ( traders) will be making hay so long as the sun shines, providing they keep their eye on the ball. One senses we have at least one wolf in sheep@s clothing, here.
AIMO and please do our own research.
Rick to me in the charts they are already no1 but certainly before the market were "singing their praises" and they liked the news for the price to shoot up almost over night as you will remember.
I see the additional benefit of the JV being what I call a canny move by senior Management to help Marstons get around Brexit and having a deal with a Major European Brewer could be a blessing and certainly an advantage over many other Uk comps if the Brexit negotiations continue with the way if appears to be going at them moment for a no deal. However in the pre-pandemic market they were doing quite well anyway and so even if the deal does not get approved by the CMA (which I feel is unlikely as it could still be agreed with conditions to satisfy those with concerns like a builders planning proposal) then once a vaccine or five is released to the public the share like most of the market will come back fast anyway!
I believe in my opinion once the CMA dealing has been signed off there will be another spike, however whether the ‘spike’ remains just that and falls off again is the million dollar question, all hanging on COVID at present
For transparency: I originally brought in here at 30.1p back in May with view of holding for a few years and got a pleasant surprise towards the end of the month causing me to sell at 65.5p... However, when the share price dipped below 60p I started to buy back in and am now calmly sitting on a loss.
My question: We saw a huge rise when the JV was announced in May but since then the SP has slid massively as time has passed (as have most in the UK markets), so, once the JV completes do we expect another rise or do we think the JV is already entirely priced in and the share price has been driven down purely by factors not relating to the JV?
Investingnewb - I heard from the press office (an official source) that the Carlsberg merger deal is being worked on flat out and as such there has not been any date given for results (just keep watching their official web site for any news.) I understand any results may not be this year until December. As I have said before Marstons do not feel they are under any pressure to release results (which is frustrating to us) they believe the business is sound and only see pressure in getting the merger through and satisfying the CMA. I hope this helps and this is an honest account before anyone says I have insider information it is after an open approach to the official web site. Give it a try and come back to the board!