We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
For discussion. Pubs for Marstons show less reliance on total sales as more and more move to home drinking. The key is distribution (not just to the pubs) but to the off licenses and supermarkets and other retailers. However as has already been said by RF if other businesses fail the JV with Carlsberg allows the Management of the PUbs to be concentrated and benefit from the Marstons increased market share. I can see them taking on more staff not less. In fact perhaps the 800 Green King staff if that is what is being said should send their Cv's in to Marstons c/o RF post JV. Marstons pubs business is to be run post JV as a completely separate business to the JV which has already stated its new management structure. The venture will actually benefit the pubs (who will also sell Carlsberg products) and in time more staff will employed as more beers are served.
YoYoMa, considering your synopsis, Marstons are faced with a huge conundrum. Once the JV is completed,possibly within the next 2 months, hands are tied in respect of the condition where they must retain at least 50 % of PUBs.
The SP is already being effected by what could be a contagion within the Hospitality sector, so the probablity of closures will be factored into the SP.
Very much doubt Martsons would make such a fundamental error as announcing something like redundancies so close to an approval date and release of Q3 figures. If jobs had to go then this would be put off till after the 2 big announcements as not to absorb the depression in the current value.
To close Pubs with over 800 job going. Will Marstons follow suit?
Interesting discussion points for those who like a discussion :-
https://www.marstons.co.uk/docs/reports/2019/on-trade-beer-report-2019.pdf
Pretty sure the Scots who like their pint of heavy -know where the supermarkets are. I wouldn't worry about that too much.
Looks like cask ales were removed from Scotland some time ago (May 2019 pre-pandemic)moving over to keg, but all there beers are freely available in the supermarkets. I didn't realize they had over 5,000 CAMRA members there however who were upset. Maybe they should last year and prior have been buying more beer to have kept it alive than writing letters of complaint? Use it or lose it. .
See link:-
https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Article/2019/05/30/Marston-s-pulls-cask-ale-from-Scotland-pubs
D Telegraph is running a speculative story this afternoon to the effect that Sturgeon is to make an announcement Wednesday pm to tighten restrictions and likely close pubs.
The good news is that Marston's website shows they only have 22 premises in Scotland, so little effect there.
Unsure how active they are in sales from their breweries north of the border but my gut is not very, so that is hopefully a bullet we dodge.
To be honest, I first bought Marston's at 53p, which was an absolute bargain, but ended up selling as pubs weren't even open then. I bought back in at 41.5p, this really is just a waiting game. CMA can't really rule against the JV - wouldn't make sense to. Even without the JV, prices are going to go back up eventually. If you're after a quick buck, I suggest you get out now. For those of us that are willing to wait mid-long term, this is going to be a very prudent investment.
Finally some share chat and good info...
I first bought marstons during pandemic as a LT hold as i saw an option for some cheapish buys... However one of the things that attracted me to this over other similar 'risk' hospitality shares was their relatively minimal inner city trade (esp in London). IMO the location and way people work has been changed forever in this pandemic... Lot's of marstons pubs are in towns and city commuter belts which should be able to attract more customers if we assume people will still wish to frequent pubs in the future (just instead of with work colleagues with friends in their locals pubs).
It will be a rocky road but locations of pubs that Marstons has was a bit positive for me long term.
All IMO and I could be very wrong.
@Kahuna
I am also keen to converse re MARS, I recall you posted recently about how bad trade was for pubs in the square mile.
The only MARS property there which I am aware of is Pitcher Piano Cornhill, which is a great location and nicely furnished but always, I felt, let down by its food offer. However I see that between now and next Thursday they have 3 "special nights", 2 are speed dating evenings and the other is a "paint London" night. Also they are now rather optimistically offering food via deliveroo. Now I am delighted to see a pro active stance by management in trying to put bums on seats, but 3 special nights in the next 6 is probably indicative of just how bad trade actually is at present.
I fully realise the P&P's are not the typical Marstons boozer but they were up for sale last year in the debt reduction attempt and failed to achieve an acceptable price. If trade is this poor what is their value now I wonder, WFH seems to have hit city centres more than we suspected it would.
KJ-The links previously supplied are to the official web site. Worth a look and good luck at :-
https://www.marstons.co.uk/news/
You can scroll through the latest Beer news, and corporate news. Also for the other side of the JV look at the carlsberg site :-
https://www.carlsberggroup.com/newsroom/carlsberg-forms-joint-venture-with-marston-s-plc-in-the-uk/
this squabble is of no interest to anyone else and has sucked all of the oxygen out of the board. You have made some interesting points but are now going nowhere.
I'd really like to get some constructive insight into the company I'm invested in please.
Unfair trade - No one reads yours words carefully. You have shown your cards as a shorter or someone who never sees upside. The agreement is in place for five years (if approved) and the exit rights are actually there to protect those signed in to the agreement should something change like Carlsberg have a change of ownership. You always look for the slightest snippet of anything negative and are on to it like a rash. I do not see the exit strategy applying in any case as if approved the JV will be a complete success.
I actually said Marstons supply over 2,000 pubs they own 1400 but they actually have over 11,000 customers in fact I down played the number of pubs as it is insignificant when they also unlike most other brewers do not just supply their own pubs but many other retail outlets (not just supermarkets). With the Carlsberg deal the numbers are likely to double and that is why collectively both companies see tremendous upside. It is a shake you cannot see this too. Harping back to small points no one is interested in. You need to look at the bigger picture.
@Fairdealer
This was a great single by the Stones but we are here to discuss Marstons, not Mick, and our rather erratic & probably disturbed midnight rambles by Tesla man are possibly induced by excess consumption after curfew ?
Sadly it seems he is incapable of sensible discourse, nor keeping to the subject and the constant carpings re Royal Dutch Shell are a good example. I am sure there are others on this board that are also wanting sensible discussion, not recycled fake facts and hearing about his "exclusive" access to info from Wolverhampton HQ ?
Hopefully he is filling his Tesla boot with cheap shares today to keep the price up for us all ?
read my words and the JV very carefully and please don't invent.
Business Plan, Deadlock and Exit section of JV states:-
" there are additional exit rights which apply in respect of certain trigger events. These include : (i) aCarlsberg UK call option in the event of change of control, insolvency, Material Breach of the Supply Agreement, a Sale of more than half of Marston's existing pub estate ( a "Major Disposal") or a default by Marston's; (ii) a Marston's put option in the event of change of control or default by Carlsberg UK ; and (iii) a Marston's call option in the event of Carlsberg UK insolvency."
Appreciate as you are unable to understand the difference between 1400 and 2000 and recently 1st and 6th, figures are a challenge, and to help "half " ( as expressed in the JV) is 50%
Facts are always better than fiction !
This is going to be the new portfolio under the JV -Enough beers for CAMRA? Or even Fairtrader?
The Carlsberg Marston’s Brewing Company will have a strong portfolio of international, national and regional beer brands. Carlsberg’s brands include Carlsberg Danish Pilsner, Carlsberg Expørt, Poretti, Tetley’s, Somersby cider and the London Fields Brewery craft portfolio, as well as the UK licence for San Miguel, Mahou and the Brooklyn Brewery craft beer portfolio. The Marston’s portfolio includes Hobgoblin, Wainwright, Marston’s Pedigree and 61 Deep, and the company also owns the Banks’s, Jennings, Ringwood and Eagle beer brands. It also has the UK licence for global brands Estrella Damm, Shipyard, Erdinger, Warsteiner and Kirin. - Think of the Christmas variety box one could buy this Christmas from the "super" markets!!
Unfairtrader you are incorrect again and talk utter nonsense. Marstons retain 100% ownership of their own pubs as they are not part of the JV agreement which is as I have said on the brewing and distribution interests of Marstons in partnership with Carlsbergs -Marstons also gain in the "joint venture" additional interests from Carlsberg.. You talk as if Marstons are losing something when they are also gaining something i.e. Interest in Carlsberg Brewing and distribution plus cash whilst still owning all of the Pubs that they own already. You really have missed the point and not Ralph Findlay's comments that the deal enables him to concentrate on running the Marstons Pub estate whilst reducing debt (this is the existing Company) the JV formed from Management from both sides is to run the Brewing and Distribution side separately and the only Aspect of the Pubs that Carlsberg will gain is access to the supply agreements in place but nothing to do with their ownership which belongs to shareholders and the money lenders, etc. The agreement if deemed approved is at first for five years. You talk with no supporting docs to what you feel has been said and f you can supply us with where it says what you feel is said we can correct you. Otherwise we will have to leave you in your dream world or shell but please avoid RD Shell as it was reported today they hit a 25 year low. This is another release which may help you understand :-
Under the terms of the transaction, Carlsberg Marston’s Brewing Company will also have access to
Marston’s pub estate for its beer portfolio which is enshrined through a strategic, long-term supply
and distribution agreement.
Carlsberg UK and Marston’s PLC will be the sole stakeholders in Carlsberg Marston’s Brewing
Company, with Carlsberg UK being the majority shareholder, owning 60% of the equity. Current
Carlsberg UK Managing Director, Tomasz Blawat, will be appointed CEO of Carlsberg Marston’s Company, with current Marston’s PLC CEO, Ralph Findlay, appointed as Non-Executive
Chairman; and Richard Westwood, current Managing Director of Marston’s Beer Company,
appointed as Chief Operating Officer, Integration. The completion statement mentions the ownership which is highlighted below (don't get this confused with the exit strategies for default of change in Carlsberg ownership. "Key terms of the Transaction Financial • On Completion, the Joint Venture will acquire Marston’s Brewing Business for up to £580
million, of which Marston’s Brewing Business will use £312 million to subscribe for a 40 per
cent shareholding in the Joint Venture, meaning that Marston’s will receive gross proceeds of
up to £273 million in cash as the balance in the form of an Equalisation Payment (which is
subject to the “normalised” working capital and debt free / cash free adjustments referred to
above, £5 million of other adjustments and the deferred contingent payment set out below)" -you will note the Brewing business does not include t
Read the JV agreement properly. It specifically states Marstons MUST retain at least 50% of their Pub Outlets. If you are unable to see the fine print suggest you consult an optician.
Let others judge who is fake. A poster who cannot find 600 pubs he claimed Marstons owned. A poster who claims Marstons are the Biggest Brewer in the UK ( actually they are 6th), or a Poster who is consistent in facts facts reported.
Anyone who listens to a blaggard who cannot answer a simple question about the Company he pretends to know all about will be lead the uninformed astray. End of.
For the record unfairtrader you have it wrong again on the JV ownership. This only relates to the Brewing and Distribution assets as Ralph Findley has said on many occasions this will enable Marston's to now concentrate on its Pub.Hotel,wine bar ownership. (Carlsberg at this stage has not requested any part of this). The Carlsberg official web said this, as you have to understand access and ownership are two totally different things. Most of Marstons customers are owned by third parties. :-
Under the terms of the proposal, the joint venture will have access to the Marston’s pub estate for its beer portfolio through a long-term strategic partnership. Marston’s operates around 1,400 pubs. The joint venture will benefit from Marston’s Beer Company’s wide distribution network. Marston’s Beer Company distributes to around 11,000 customers directly, including the independent free trade, other pub companies, the off-trade and export.
Link to the Carlsberg web :-
https://www.carlsberggroup.com/newsroom/carlsberg-forms-joint-venture-with-marston-s-plc-in-the-uk/
CEO Cees ’t Hart says: “The creation of the joint venture is an important step forward for our UK business. The joint venture’s brand portfolio will allow us to offer a significantly stronger beer portfolio to our UK customers, and at the same time extend distribution into the Marston’s pub estate. In addition, the combined business will bring our customers wider choice, greater capacity, product innovation, and marketing and distribution efficiency benefits.”
Unfairtrader you really need to read the "official release on the Marstons official web site" and not your comic papers. There is nothing fake at all as I have simply copied across from the public document the paragraphs to which show your reporting to be as unreliable as your share choices.
To make your life easier here is the link to the "official doc" you need to read 2nd paragraph down of page 4, the rest you will find later in the doc. Sorry but the only fake here is what you say to clear this up see Link attached :-
https://www.marstons.co.uk/docs/jv/2020/Marstons_PLC_forms_JV_Partnership_with_Carlsberg_UK_220520.pdf
Lord help us , CMBC will have sole rights to external distribution, not Marstons who will remain a Pub/Motel entity and are bound by the JV agreement too retain at least 50% of Pub /Beer Outlets owned/Managed at the time of Agreement Completion.
Marstons will have a 40% share of CMBC
More tosh and fake news. Anyone who knows anything about the "Beer Order" knows even tied Pubs are allowed to obtain and sell at least One beer from an outside Brewery. The concern is Carlsberg will close down this provision by claiming there beers (imported) are "Guest Beers". The CMA will adjudicate.
Incidentally Supermouth I have NO shares in Shell sold at £25 some time ago, but if you are interested at current levels they are paying a handsome dividend ( over 14%) . get some quick it will top up your meagre Pension.
As far as predicting the SP here it will have difficulty climbing above the Mid 50's whilst there is so much uncertainty within not just the Economy but the sector as a whole. At the moment MARS SP is under pinned by the last reported NAV so any talk of £1 in the near future is complete nonsense. As Warren Buffett often says " price is what you pay value is what get".
The market clearly believes the SP here is fairly priced and can only move once a number of factors are clarified. JV approval, Debt reduction plan, future trajectory for the Company after the Brewing Arm has been hived off.
At present the market does not know where Marstons are headed, much like many other companys.
Supertramp are you still pondering over the number of Pubs manged by Carlsberg in the UK., or don't you know much like the phantom Hostelries owned/managed by Marstons that you continued to publish and not validate.
Lets have your account of the number of Pubs owned/Managed by Carlsberg in the UK. If you do'nt know just keep quiet.
The announcement from Marstons refers to the JV agreement for exclusive supply only to Marstons retained Pubs :-
"A long term supply and distribution agreement will be put in place as part of the Transaction, pursuant
to which the Joint Venture will exclusively supply and distribute drinks and related services to
Marston’s retained pub business on a third party arm’s length basis (the “Supply Agreement”). CMBC
will have multiple sites across the country and is intended to be headquartered in Wolverhampton." HOWEVER Marstons also refers to " Currently, Marston’s distributes to c.11,000 customers directly including the
independent free trade, other pub companies, the off-trade and export" and so the agreement does not have to have any affect at all on the non -retained business. I also see Marstons being able to open up sales across Europe through Carlsberg European connections later and this will help the Company tremendously "post" Brexit with this reciprocal agreement giving the combined group an advantage to both Companies. A "super" fully charged agreement.
I understand and agree to some extent but these
Pop up Pubs need suppliers and the microbrewers fit nicely into that market.
I travel quite often to the U.K from France and every time I go to my home town there is a new pub in an old shop premises. I bet if I spoke to the landlord of the large Yates pub then he would have more concerns about how that is impacting his footfall rather than the JV of two major brewers.
I suppose your opinion and mine are very similar to the discussions the CMA are having.
Quite recently the CMA blocked a partnership between Asda and Sainsbury’s. Now we have Lidl and Aldi taking up market share and Asda gets sold iff to EG that give store space to exclusive bakers, fast food chain and coffee retailers.
Sainsbury’s a U.K. business is left out in the cold and losing ground to the likes of the co op and Aldi.