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Just to counteract the speculation and the listening to rumour and vague recommendations ... Cathedral constitutes less than a third of the LRE groups size etc ... in addition there are really rather strict rules regarding the viability and sustainability of the insurance/underwriting business ... at worst case if there is some irregularity what can its affect on the whole groups position be? Overall this is one of those cases where I suspect the rumour is rather worse than the reality. LRE's dividend policy tends to lead to large swings in share price, particularly at about this time of year, so what we see today/yesterday is not actually unusual from a numerical point of view. In addition much of the recent 700p price tag was the result of M&A speculation following the Amlin deal ... my own feeling is that, if anything, LRE is a more likely candidate for take over once this debacle is cleared up than before ... but now the froth has been blown off the top and the odds of a bid are increased. Net conclusion ... hold, or in my case buy (as I'm underweight in my HYP on this one). Mike
Brokers ... love 'em or hate 'em ... Hargreaves Lansdown lists 7 brokers ratings for LRE ... 1 strong buy, 1 buy, 4 neutral, 1 sell. The sell is from Barclays Capital who have had it in place since before May and have held a target price of about 430 throughout that period ... as ArtMan said, if you wait long enough then they are always right. I can't see Cannacord Genuity having any better information or track record ... the link that cj101 posts is to a largely computer generated article that just lists statistics ... the only thing that isn't is the brokers target of 550 and we more or less saw that yesterday. Nope ... for me the whole bunch of them, unless they publish their analysis, are just waving wet fingers in the air. I'm waiting to see what the company has to announce about the situation. Mike
So GT is saying sell LRE, well ha, I would not listen to this broker, even if they were the only brokers, what do they know about anything, almost every prediction made by them is plain wrong, however if you listen to them and then wait long enough, they will eventually be right, just not in this decade.
Bargain top-up? Well good question that one, as in all things investment wise we shall have to see. Traditionally, looking at the annual charts for LRE there's a fall back in the price at this time of year, and interestingly, not so much different in terms of size to this one. Of course *this* is different with the Cathedral issues still to come out in full. What surprises me greatly is that, from what I can see, there's been no announcement from the company as to what is happening, *and more importantly, why it is happening!* Having said all that, I did do a bit of selling in the ISA this morning to release funds to top up our holding of LRE. Even with half the special dividends the yield is very attractive and I'm into High Yield Portfolio things in the ISA. Good luck all ... now I wonder when the board are going to publish something to reduce the uncertainty that surrounds this at the moment? Mike
.... Bargain top up for me!! I dont trade this, just reinvest c divi level between ex divi date and divi, was hoping for 550, today close enough for me. Been in 2 happy years, safest share in my portfolio, off the top of my head Special Divi in 8 of the 9 last years - a great under the radar share :-)
Cathedral Capital CEO, CFO dismissed Here is the source http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-07/lancashire-slumps-on-report-cathedral-capital-ceo-cfo-dismissed?cmpid=yhoo.headline Probably financial irregularities?
? floods in Lake district
OK so what's going on? 10% sort of fall in the sp in the space of a couple of hours and despite scouring the news, forums and RNS streams I can't find any explanation for the reason why. Does anyone have any idea(s)? Mike
I think it was ex-div on 28th and you would need to be registered on 27th ?
Didn't it go ex div today which means if you bought today you don't get the next special div?
To an early Christmas prezzie. Doubled my holding at 673. Chuffed to bits cos I'm retiring soon. I am obviously missing something otherwise they wouldn't be trading at this low level, however..... ITS THE DIVI I NEED ! And now got.
Sorry, meant closer to 11%
The SD I see of 95c gives a total dividend of around 9.5/10%! Crikey. **this stays on watchlist to see if it goes even lower over the next day or two and then move funds here... Think you can all thank the weather system for the payment!! Haha
@moorhey Thank you so much for that amazing insight! I'm very much still trying to get my head around LRE and your observation helps me tremendously -- I'm sure it will help others too. LRE just isn't your average company as regards its dividend policies etc and as I'm trying to put it into a high yield portfolio (HYP) it's taking me a while to crack this particular nut. But my instinct tells me that there's the potential for a very nice future income stream here and I'm certainly watching it very carefully (although I do have at least one or two toes in the water!) Mike
The size of the Special Div seems to be "loosely" linked (in my opinion - I'm no expert) to the Net Operating Profit (NOP). In the 9-month (before the 3rd-quarter) of 2014, NOP was US$142.50 million resulting in Special Div of $1.20 (two payments). This year, the NOP for 9-months is US$127.60 million, and the Special Div is $0.95. It's not an exact ration, but it is in the ball-park. Being a "disaster" insurance company, it will all depend if there is a disaster in the year as to whether there is a Special Dividend payout or not.
Hindsight is always 20/20! ... I'm new to LRE so I don't have a big holding here ... I've been waiting to see how the special/normal dividend cycle works in practice before committing further. Funnily enough I had 60p penciled in as my best estimate of the special if there was to be one. My major concern was that there might *not* be a special dividend at all ... in which case I would have been seriously out of pocket. But we're not home and dry yet by any means. Looking at the charts for previous years its not at all easy to say what will happen between now and the ex-div date and then from there until next spring. I really do wish my foresight was 20/20 on this one -- it would certainly make things a lot easier! Mike
We should have marked the date in the calendar as this morning the Special Dividend was announced and the SP jumped to 750 on the news. Thru' the morning, the SP has "settled-down" and now (noon UK 5th Nov) sits at 730. Could have made a quick margin by selling on the news this morning, and buying back before the Special ex-Div date of 27th Nov. However, if I knew what was going to happen to the SP in advance, I wouldn't be on here writing about it but taking advantage of it instead!
Thanks Graham for the updated URL to DividendMax ... certainly looks interesting, I'll be stopping by there over the next couple of days. It's a small world ... I was/still am into Amlin, was holding about 6K worth and was waiting for a good opportunity to increase to about the 18K level when the bid was announced. The profit is nice (looking at 43%+) but now I have to decide what to do with the money again as its a cash only bid. I liked the look of LRE, and pre-emptively have put £10K here ... the charts though are rather strange because of the enormous dividends and returns. The specials are the ones that do your head in and make predicting what is going to happen difficult. Watch out though for your idea of selling after the big Dividend in December ... the issue here is that the entitlement for the dividend will be if you hold the shares at the start of trading on the ex-dividend date (I'm guessing it will be 26 November its usually a Thursday). You can sell them on the 26th itself, but you must hold them at the start of trading on that day. If you look at the price charts you'll see a really big drop on that Thursday in 2014 to allow for the 76p dividend. The interesting thing is that the drop was *bigger* than the dividend entitlement itself, which prompts me to consider selling at the peak in October when the dividend is still included in the price. Anyway, good to be here ... we'll talk about the mechanics and the tactics as we get a bit closer. Mike
Hi Mike. sorry I was thinking of their logo. DividendMax.co.uk. You will get a free month and no chase up. Loads of information about the top divi. co`s. About 10 days ago a co. named Amlin had a take over offer, and before the market opened the LRE price had increased 58p. This was in sympathy, as the Co`s are similar. Personally I would not like this, as I imagine the Divi would get cut and I do intend trading LRE next year, because it is so dynamic. I will wait till after the next big divi in December. Graham.
I think in general not so many folk make themselves aware of the finer details regarding the in-and-outs of share dealing etc. The subtleties regarding AIM and the implications for IHT and SDRT for example spring to mind. Whilst I don't pursue these thing religiously when I come across something that I don't understand or didn't expect then I make it my business to find out the details -- if only for the 'next' time. So a case in point, a quick google on Divi-Max doesn't yield anything promising and prompts the question ... do you have a link? Your talk of a take over is interesting ... I've only put a small 'toe' in the water with a view to possibly trading in/out between now and the end of October. Long term I'd like to be in here for the yield but I'm not too sure as to how it will work out through this set of interims. Once I've seen the cycle through once I'll have a better feel for how things run. Mike
I can`t understand why more people don`t seem to know about this share. No stamp duty, out of country. I am just completing my first cycle of Divi`s. I heard about them on Divi-max website, where you can get a free months trial, and they have them in their portfolio. great share to deal, but not at the moment, as there is talk of a takeover.
Here's an answer to my own question ... there is *no* SDRT levied on the sale of LRE shares. This is because it is a foreign registered company and it doesn't have a UK registrar (the registrar is the Jersey office of CAPITA). So it falls outside of SDRT. It may well be the same for the PTM levy as well -- although I haven't checked the details on that one. What this does mean, is that with a low-cost dealing service and the narrow spread it's possible to get in and out of this share for very little cost, making short term trading very attractive. Basically I can get in and out for a total of £10 regardless of size of deal and some of you folk can do it for less I'm sure. That means a few pence on the day will generate a profit. I'm not normally a trading type, but it's an interesting idea. Mike
Just bought a pile of LRE ... and was very surprised on closing the deal that I wasn't charged stamp duty (SDRT more properly) ... neither was I charged the £1 PTM levy on a deal over £10,000. I know there's no SDRT on AIM shares but LRE is FTSE-250 ... is there something I don't know or have forgotten? Do other folk pay SDRT/PTM on deals with this share? Mike
If you look at the bottom of what anaylsts expect to be fy eps, it shows a drop of at least 25% and for fy div to equate around 7.8%. Could this be based on possible losses in US...? http://tools.morningstar.co.uk/uk/stockreport/default.aspx?SecurityToken=0P00007YX8]3]0]E0WWE$$ALL