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It seems to be cyclical - after the Special Dividend is announced there's a rise in the SP, and then the SP slowly drops off to a year low around June/July, before starting to climb again (presumably on anticipation of the next Special Dividend). The turning point is usually the issue half-year statement/figures. The SP dropped below the 50-day MA on 27March, and if it drops below the 200-day MA (which is at about 650) some people say that's a sign to sell-off; but when the SP drops below the 200-day MA I take that as a buying opportunity. While insurance margins are always getting tighter, this company makes so much cash it's hard to understand why it isn't rated higher.
Why the recent dip ?????
Great set of full year results. Yes, a tiny bit down on last year but there are plenty out there finally realising what a cash-cow this business is. See Bearbull in Investors Chronicle.
Hi Kejoglo. The drop is the divi. being paid. The company is worth .61 pence a share less because its being paid to shareholders. Quite normal. Wait for further drop, then I will start re-investing before the rise to the next Divi. IMO.
Looks like this share has been dumped a bit now we have hit ex dividend date. However I think people may be overdoing it a bit! Expect a bit of a bounce back later.
super!
Great news today, special divi again (I just love this share!!) at $0.75c (about 61p today, who knows when paid may be worth 75p at this rate!) Strong business well run + new Non-Exec joins All good here GLTALTH's
I was only thinking about that yesterday - so here's hoping!
With half-year figures looking better than expected, and 2nd-half likely to be improved, we should see another "Special Dividend" announcement in the 3rd-quarter report.
Actually I think it's totally here or there ... being one holding means it's one brain/head behind it ... and that means one man's take on things compared to a market weighted average ... plus this person has held this short position for the last 2-4 years! During that time the LRE price has been all over the place relative to where it is now. OAM areeither doing in/out trading no the short position, exploiting the volatility, or using it as insurance for the rest of their portfolio. The recent price moves seem to be more due to the normal long-term volatility of the share in the presence/absence of special dividends etc than to the effect of shorting. I suspect that you may get a bite at the 5.00 cherry before the next dividend season comes around! Mike
Before we get excited about Mr Odey being short in LRE, or anybody else for that matter, we need to remember a few things. The first thing is there's only one fund that is short to any great extent and that is Odey Asset Management which is in for about 6.12% ... there's Blackrock at 0.71% but that's really small by comparison. The second thing is that OAM have been short in the stock since about 2013/14 ... and in January 2015 were short by 4% ... so this is not a new stance for them. Far from gambling on a sudden crash it would appear that OAM are just trading the peaks and troughs to be honest. In short (terrible pun I know) I don't see any need for concern about OAM's current position. Mike
Am I correct in thinking Woodford and Invesco own 30% of the company? As the trend is down what is in store for the share apart from the special divi? I am a shareholder but have not looked at them in ages.
The market makers have the right to delay the posting of large trades ... I suspect they have done so with this one. You may need to wait until the close of trade tomorrow to see it posted :( Mike
Any idea why CEOs purchase today isn't shown as a top 5 transaction when given the number of shares he is supposed to have bought isn't on there?
Nice over reaction today gave me a chance for a further cheeky top up - I see our CEO thinks so to!! I got a better price on mine, albeit he got a lot more than me lol!! To those unfamiliar with this one take a look at the history of special divi's - any time this gets around 550 its a buy for me - DYOR!! GLTALTH :-)
That link sounds about right. I have just topped up @ £6.035. At the very least I will get the extra bonus by staying in until 26th Feb. I have also considered this to be undervalued personally I think SP of £6.40 more realistic. Trading in this share has always turned a profit for me.
thanks for that link - shame they are down again today....but tomorrow may be better!
Shares in Lloyd's insurer Lancashire Holdings (LRE) fell sharply on Monday after reports that two executives, Peter Scales and John Lynch, had left the company's Lloyd's managing agent, Cathedral Capital. Trading so far this year has remained a challenge, with a benign claims environment putting downward pressure on premiums. Overcapacity is expected to continue, and gross premiums written in the third quarter were down by more than a fifth, bringing a contraction in the first nine months of the year of nearly a third. Much of this reflects the fact that a number of multi-year deals written in the property and energy segments in 2014 are not yet due for renewal. Without these 'non-annual deals' gross premiums written were down a more bearable 10 per cent. The good news is that with an excess of capital, the group has continued to reward shareholders with special dividend payments, the latest of 61p a share due for payment on 18 December. IC VIEW: Lloyd's underwriting is a people business, and when key managers leave they tend to take business with them. We tipped Lancashire Holdings as a potential takeover target in a sector that has seen considerable consolidation following successful bids for rivals Amlin, Brit and Catlin. However, at 599p, Lancashire shares have fallen sharply from an earlier peak of 758p, and we downgrade our earlier advice (Buy, 557p 15 January 2015), although given the attractive dividend, the shares are worth holding on to. Hold.
Topped up at 615. Lets hope that this gets back to where it should be .
Thanks LordAdam for posting that link. I agree with your summary and topped up a bit sub £6. This is Christmas come early, can`t wait for the divi. to get some more. I think we will see a strong upward trend in the new year.
Found this in the online FT for 7 December ... http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4f97a60e-9d08-11e5-8ce1-f6219b685d74.html?ftcamp=traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev The gist of the piece is the following: "Chief executive Peter Scales and John Lynch, the finance director, are founding partners of Cathedral, which Lancashire bought in 2013 for £266m to gain access to the Lloyd’s insurance market. People familiar with the situation confirmed the pair had left Cathedral, and that Lancashire was unable to comment for legal reasons. A corporate culture clash was to blame for the dismissals, said one person, who added that Lancashire remained committed to the Lloyd’s market." That might go some way to explaining the relative silence surrounding the situation ... From a personal holding point of view I don't see any cause for undue concern ... In due course they will be replaced and in the mean time the rest of the Cathedral crew will man the ship. #All the important building blocks remain in place. I'm holding and in fact topping up as reserves come available. Mike
John, thanks, you're a star. Interesting isn't it that there is still no indication as to why the CEO+CFO are going? It's a tricky one to call isn't it, but my considered opinion at the moment is to hold and maybe even add for the high yield portfolio if I have cash around to do it. The specials pre-date the Cathedral acquisition and even without Cathedral there should still be a reasonable cash surplus on good low-claim years. Mike
Shares in Lloyd's insurer Lancashire Holdings (LRE) fell sharply on Monday after reports that two executives, Peter Scales and John Lynch, had left the company's Lloyd's managing agent, Cathedral Capital. Trading so far this year has remained a challenge, with a benign claims environment putting downward pressure on premiums. Overcapacity is expected to continue, and gross premiums written in the third quarter were down by more than a fifth, bringing a contraction in the first nine months of the year of nearly a third. Much of this reflects the fact that a number of multi-year deals written in the property and energy segments in 2014 are not yet due for renewal. Without these 'non-annual deals' gross premiums written were down a more bearable 10 per cent. The good news is that with an excess of capital, the group has continued to reward shareholders with special dividend payments, the latest of 61p a share due for payment on 18 December. IC VIEW: Lloyd's underwriting is a people business, and when key managers leave they tend to take business with them. We tipped Lancashire Holdings as a potential takeover target in a sector that has seen considerable consolidation following successful bids for rivals Amlin, Brit and Catlin. However, at 599p, Lancashire shares have fallen sharply from an earlier peak of 758p, and we downgrade our earlier advice (Buy, 557p 15 January 2015), although given the attractive dividend, the shares are worth holding on to. Hold.
Does any good fellow have a subscription to Investors Chronicle ... ... and if so could they take a look at this article and let us know what the gist of it is? http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2015/12/08/tips-and-ideas/share-tips/management-exits-at-lancashire-holdings-GFQZOHxp8nse0GXovwMDaN/article.html Thanks. Mike