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PeterS23
I don’t believe they have to announce the culmination of a claim via RNS - it’s money going through the books as any other business - but do expect the interim results to update on the number and value of claims closed as well as those still open.
The company have issued RNS for the more significant funding contracts entered into (such as Carillion). We do not get an update whilst a claim is ongoing as this could influence the case itself (I think other litigation companies have run into this issue).
Thanks Fishcakes - do you know if it is the position that all legal case results, win or lose, have to be the subject of an RNS announcement? TIA, GLA
Hopefully some good results.
Historic ROIC of 135%.
We can also deploy any profits into 3rd party funds which doubles our ROIC
Another buy today by a Non Exc. This is becoming quite compelling given interim results to Dec 21 are due soon.
Recent buys;
Feb 4 J Moulds Non Exc 600,000 shares (total now 1.5m)
Jan 28 M Gangeni CFO 27.500 shares (first purchase)
Jan 4 Collins St Asset Mgr 1.5m shares (total now 13.3m and top holder)
Dec 24 J Moulds Non Exc 725,000 shares
Dec 21 P Molony CEO 50,000 shares (total 10.2m)
In regards the directors, all have been openly bought on the market, not options. This is pretty bullish. The main holder (Collins St) increased their holding by circa 12%, a Non Exc with two purchases so close together, the CFO opens a position. I'm waiting to see if the CEO also adds in the coming days.
This has prompted me to look back at the FY results in June 21 to remind myself where the company was at that time.
The average case time was 27 months (based on 10 years data) with Covid expected to add a delay.
Of the portfolio, 44 cases were ongoing. The number and length of time the cases were open as of June 21 are below with where they would be as of Dec 21 in brackets;
16 cases 13-24 months (19-30 months)
12 cases 25-36 months (31-42 months)
6 cases 37+ months
In the absence of any other data I think it would be safe to assume a number of those cases were now resolved and reported in the interim results, even if we consider only the last two brackets (12 & 6 cases) were to be factored in due to Covid delays, this would suggest a number of the 16 cases will mature this year.
The FY results in June 21 showed a high percentage of the total cases open at that time were for a claim size over 100m.
6x 100-200m
8x 201-500m
5x 501m+
Joining the dots it *may* seem that key shareholders would appear to be very confident. As far as I can see the fundamentals for the business are still good, so this just adds to the conviction which is tempting me to add at the current price.
Another 600k purchase by chairman.
Including his last purchase that is 1million gbp+
Has to be confident. This is not just to make it look like management have cobfidence
https://news.sky.com/story/carillion-liquidators-claim-against-kpmg-to-seek-over-1bn-in-damages-12531256
We are funding this. From interviews we are getting a multiple on invested capital, maybe with a small outperformance %
It looks to be the CFO’s first investment in the company, having been in the role a little under 2 years and I agree, £25k could be a significant sum for her.
Along with the CEO buy in December, Collins St Asset Mgrs (the top shareholder) also increased their holdings by 1.5m shares during January, a 12% increase in their holding.
Good signs.
It is a good sign.
Of course cfo can buy. There might be a block out period around results. If ceo can buy so can CFO :)
They are all looking at same numbers.
The cfo is young so 25k could be significant amount.
Ceo and chairman also purchased in good size.
This is a waiting game for the results.
First I’d like to say I’m no expert at all and in no way am I suggesting anything underhanded.
Directors buys can be a good sign as a show of confidence. A good article below about what is / isn’t insider trading. Includes a great quote by Peter Lynch.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/02/061202.asp
Fishcakes how can a CFO trade when they know what the results are gonna be ? That is inside dealing isn’t it? Even if not formally on the board yet, the CFO has “special” knowledge, that the likes of you and I do not.
Always interesting to see the CFO increase their holdings, being closest to the books every day.
Purely speculating here. Interim results covering to the 31st December are due in a little over a month and I’m sure the CFO will by now know exactly what this set of results will look like.
Shows confidence in the company!
25k worth buy.
These guys have been talking to simon thompson for 5 yrs, if he feels there is no issue and 50pct upside, this is classic tip style for him.
Also what fraud can he have committed on portfolio?
All investments are made by committee.
Amounts spent are controlled by finance.
So far rns said expenses. If there was fraud by law they need to state in RNS. Will lawyers make false legal statements? Especially when ceo is major holder
I would be surprised. Any company fraud, let alone one involving a senior director, will make any self-respecting tipster run a mile.
First week of feb is investors chronicle bargain basement annual tips.
Guven simon thompson, the author has a target price of 150, there is a chance it will be included
Recent sell off now nearly reversed. Think this is now set to climb again quite quickly back to high of 130p and then beyond once the market fully works out that lumpy profits are still profits and over a 3/4/5 year period it’s the total returns made to shareholders that matter, rather than a less lumpy even annual amount. Given the potential here, this board is presently very quiet but I’m expecting that to change in the coming year also given how safe an investment LIT represents. Profitable, cash rich, near guaranteed annual sales pipeline etc. GLA
To buy 725k shares when you previously only held 250k is a big statement of intent, I've added to my holding off the back of it - one of the most notable director buys we've seen on AIM for some time.
Picked up a few towards the end of the day. Following those buys !
Looks completely overdone to me but I am still catching up on all RNS’s
Massive buys to steady the ship today.
Jonathan Moulds picked up 725k shares at 89p and his buddy Patrick Moloney another 50k.
https://www.investegate.co.uk/litigation-cap.-mgmt--lit-/rns/director-pdmr-shareholding/202112291610039780W/
Good to see this correcting some of Fridays overdone reaction.
That's the issue with some of these illiquid stocks, they can easily overshoot the target.
500,000 buy 88p at 09.50.35
Agree.
My main point is that the investments already made should bring the book value nearly to market cap. You can worry about the future profits from reinvwating etc, but at this market cap future profits are valued near to 0.
Bit crazy given one guy leaves
The whole business model and its success did not depend on one director.
I am sure there will be some.clarifications later. But looking at facts.
Market cap 95m
Last reported book value at xost 50m
Announced already 10m gbp profit on only 2 deals.
Probably circa 30to 40 pct of portfolio maturing in 12m from now.
There really is a scenario where current market cap could be close to book.value in 12m.
There is no comment about anything other than expenses, all investments are made by a commite which i believe ceo chairs. There is no reason to doubt investments todate.
Worst case in 12m this company might have 80m gbp in cash vs 95m market cap.
When events are clarified later this will rally.
Orr holding it will be close to book.value ib 12m
Certainly didn't think this was going to end up the loss leader today, or any day for that matter. Wish I would have sold at 130p but was again chasing the dream.
Having said that I cannot believe the loss of one individual could cause the mcap to sink 23% in one day.