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Is a really interesting take.
Not surprised shell and other companies are looking to move from the London market
Wow, 25% drop.
That drop is bonkers based on a very positive RNS.
Lots to be positive about here (japex funding, malaysia, statfjord 600 boepd, kveijke).
Looks to me like a single large seller has moved the share price?
No doubt your perspective here depends on when you bought in.
Those who got in early at IPO (£1) will rightly be furious with the 5 year performance.
Those who go in more recently should be very optimistic about future growth now the ducks are now finally lined up.
FWIW: I lost money on the way down here. But was lucky enough to get back when it dropped back to 10p as it looked massively oversold at that point. Good luck all! Now is not a time to be spooked into selling.
Well said Haggis....just bought in. If it good enough for Japan Exploration, it is good enough for me.
The other important point if this is £10m junior oiler with access to a 5 year - $100m acquisition facility.
How often do you see that ? Future value is here, no question.
Got my top up. My Average has come down nicely
Well I am one of those who first bought in at £1 all those years ago, and currently have an average of 32p. I would love to average down but I think I will pass for now as this could be a long road. I'm sure all will come good for HH et al in the next 3-5 years, but I have had my fair share of stress with HUR recently which I did okay in as it happens, but at the time I said to myself never again with AIM oilers. lol
Like Deeko I have taken this opportunity to average down. I was hoping to get a good chunk of the latest annual isa allowance in here under 20p, and feel pretty lucky to have done so. Fingers crossed, but I'm here for a long haul.
1st Feb RNS 'The acquisition of the Statfjord Satellites has been funded by a combination of the investment by JAPEX into Longboat JAPEX announced last year and a drawing of approximately US$15 million on the Acquisition Bridge Facility provided by JAPEX to the Joint Venture. The drawing is greater than originally forecast due to negative working capital movements related to delays in bringing new wells on-stream during 2023.'
Today, they said 17m - does that mean 2m extra has been drawn? If so this drop is ridiculous.
So are we happy with that presentation ?
Same old fluff to me. Doesn't fill me with confidence that we're close to any material production deal
They’ve explicitly said that the are actively participating in a couple of deals which is a step in the right direction.
They also mentioned it would be good to buy more of Statfjord ost if the opportunity comes up.
It wasn’t thrilling I’ll give you that but I did like how James mentioned that they had been engaged with the Malaysian government regarding shallow water discoveries! A nice new snippet
They’ve been “actively participating” in deal processes for 5 years now - they just can’t get anything significant over the line. Everything they’ve touched has gone bad so far.
Only Longboat could deliver a 25% share price drop from an end of year results RNS. I will repeat. They are inept.
Paul "They’ve been “actively participating” in deal processes for 5 years now".
This is my very point and concern, particularly those of us who invested from the outset! We've seen all sorts of oil price cycles fly past without delivery on the organisation's strategy to invest in production.
Ash, why not sell up and move on? I’ve done it serval times before and made multiples back. Tullow being a good example. Bought at 7p sold at 45/50, bought back in at 37 sold at 27 and moved on to I3E at 10p to sell at 28p.
Why wait around if you don’t have any faith they can deliver? Let’s be honest too, they changed strat when Japex came in and have only had 100 million financing for less than 9months.
You can’t say it’s been 5 years for a production deal because they were buying into exploration wells initially and Did so successfully. Unfortunately nothing major came in but they’ve refocused to the Kveikja area now which I think is a wise decision.
In short, would I buy I3E at 100p? Absolutely not, is there major value at 17, 20,25,30,35,40? absolutely
I really can't face losing so much by selling at this stage.
I also appreciate the disconnect in the current sp.
Fair enough. Been there too!
I invested at the outset, but you have to bear in mind it was an out and out exploration play back then (as for that matter UPL is now).
For all that, LBE have still made a number of discoveries from that early strategy which the partners are saying you mightn't have heard much about them but they are of importance and will hear of them as development plans for them grow.
I also bought in on the new strategy.
The ridiculous comments about everything they've touched has gone bad beggars belief.
The Japex JV $100m financing deal with the possibility of doubling that via debt rbl financing.
The Initial acquisition of 300 boepd which we were waiting on reaching 600 boepd. The delay was outside our control when we are minority partners. I don't hear many picking up on the expectation that it should now reach circa 1,000 boepd which would be 66% upside to our initial conditioning. The Operator has said there is potential to increase the RF = reserves increase but i'm sure this is all lost amongst the moaning and those who don't see what has been put together.
They've landed one of the biggest undrilled blocks (52.5%/2A) with a whopping 50% 3D coverage that would cost $millions with multiple large prospects. Just one having 1.5 billion boe recoverable estimate with the rest potentailly adding up to a multiple of that imo. There's about $500m - $1b of possible value (ie c $3/boe on 150 - 300 mmboe on a remaining 10-20% post farm out for Kertang alone if that size discovery is found, with other structures as a future follow on.
Upland languished at .2 then .4 of a penny for 5 years and now with it's Sarawak block, half the size of ours, still not awarded but expected, no 3D, no recoverable estimates and no known net perecentage share to them - yet now at 4.3p today and 4.7p recently on 1.211 b shares = £53-£57m m/cap and about another 150m cheap warrants still to dilute, little cash and crucially not enjoying any income whatsoever.
As for us picking up a a so called small interest. Aet picked up a similar sized producing interest from Ina of barely 150 boepd but it's what you do with them. They languished at under 10p or £22m m/cap and have picked up 3 debt funded interests under a new strategy that took time to execute and are not far of £100m m/cap at 47p today.
At current prices and short ramp up timescale there should be $25m - $28m JV revenue on that 1,000 boepd.
If they can add the right deal on the financing available they could be a 10,000+ boepd producer in Norway. That has to be passed by Japex too what they want to approve not just LBEs management.
A mention that they could land some Sarawak fallow offshore shallow water existing discoveries for development at no cost which imo could add considerable 2C and reclassified to 2P on a dev plan so that's a major one to watch as that team/region has to justify it's formation and growth over an above just block 2A - which will be a second growth arm.
Great summary ZENGAS. Also, oil at $91.
Said this time and time again but this is another Serica. I was in at Serica when Erskine was producing 2000 boepd yet the market just didn’t recognise the value. Easiest 200/300% I ever made, then the big acquisition came and suddenly everyone wanted in.
IMO you capitalise on times like this when the share price is on sale.
Zengas it was never supposed to be an exploration play - that was not the original strategy but they bottled doing a deal during the pandemic and then energy prices spiked leaving them nowhere to go.
You say it beggars belief but £1 to 16p tells you all you need to know.
Stop and think about this;
Longboat will produce 1000 barrels every day by June. Not only that but, 80+% of the capex we have paid out for the gas lift project will be paid back to us next year by the Norwegian government.
Paul yes, but like it or not in the absence of deals (13/3/20) this ended up an exploration play at the time despite its full cycle strategy.
13/3/20 - ie 1 year after listing -
"Longboat will focus on 'near field' exploration with access to infrastructure and de-risking through nearby discoveries".
From admission to this statement and into April 2021 the share price was in the 100p range so on this strategy if it wasn't what anyone had planned for there was ample time to change ones own investment strategy/risk.
What proof do you have with a comment that' they bottled it' on assets - What potential good deals were on the table and access to cash for financing ? None of us KNOW what competition was faced in or around any deals and if they were ultimately good or not in the long or short term re pricing and if the goal posats were moved mid deal.
The farm in process (75p) to the exploration drilling was 1 June 21 - 2 years after the company was set up.
We had 6 discoveries out of the initial exploration wells some of which have opened major plays. While some on the back burner they may yet be tied in re Satellite developments in the future. Kveikje one of the biggest discoveries in that period - so to me it demonstrates that they get in on the right prospects with partners for discoveries and i expect more farm ins of that type.
It was in Feb 2023 that it then broadened its remit and likely in talks long before this with potential partners on a JV.
In the last 12 months it has put in place the
1) Japex deal $100m and possibly doubling with RBL.
2) Acquired the initial production assets now expected at circa 1,000 boepd v 300 at the SPA with a 600 boepd guidance post drill by the operator.
3) The largest undrilled giant structure Malaysia/Sarawak with 1.5 billion boe recoverable potential and a range of very large follow on structures in the block that is now in a world hot spot surrounded by majors like Shell, Total, Connoco etc.
That all didn't fall into their lap. Time, negotiation and effort.
Likewise why i expect the next deals will build the company much bigger in both jurisdictions.
Lbe is one for the bottom drawer open the drawer when lbe is 1 pound .There partner see valued so do i
The problem for lots of us though, Scoreagain, is that opening the bottom draw when/if they are £1 will still leave us in the negative. That's how poor the company has performed.
I invested on that original strategy so I'm still hoping for a decent material production purchase.
I'm not opening the bottom drawer for a measly quid. I'm aiming for at least a fiver.