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Diamonds are sold in US dollars accoring to report 16/4/22.
While we wait for a trading update (looking back 1 yr, updates have been haphazard and as and when so there's no specific date to expect this) on throughput, and progress with the Great Lakes (REE) acquisition, I was curious to look at whether commodity prices had moved since my base assumptions. The short answer is no, not really. That's a positive by the way, that the prices are supported despite many other commodities dropping during 2022 (e.g. gold, copper, tin)
Lithium 515000 CNY/Tonne - up 290%
Diamonds - up 5%
HMS - Flat 0%
Tantalum - up 5%
REE (Neodymium) - up 13%
I wrote some analysis on the 2022 outturn a couple of months back. Revisiting that and prices I can still see how KZG could be valued at £15m-£20m based on a PE of 10-13 based on a $2m forecast profit. Which translates to a share price of 1.7p-2.2p or 100%-160% upside from here - based on conservative assumptions. Just because KZG has got caught up in the general sell off the fact is the facts haven't changed. The upside percentages have got bigger.
The analogy I'd draw is that the current market price is like a field of Russian military equipment left abandoned. You can be brave and advance (buy/average down) and increase your arsenal or you can stand your ground in which case the opportunity will eventually recede as the Russians sneak back to their tanks, or you can retreat based on market panic.
GLA
Bow wow! Quantity at the mid this PM just too tempting!
Having recently bought in, I am perhaps blissfully ignorant of the history and any disappointments up to this point. My introduction was listening to the Dig Deep episode with Dennis, and I came away with the impression of significant activity across this portfolio, with specific plans to turn cash flow positive in the next few months. Collaborations on lithium and diamond processing, success against HMS appeal etc. With assets close to going into production, I see a lot to be excited about here, more so than eg a drill story. I am giving this a few months - build it and they will come.
All well and good having yummy sweets on display in the sweet shop, wrapped in pretty packets and all.
But they have to enough to sell, and customers popping in to buy them.
Never seem to get the second, most essential part, actually ringing the till buzzer.
Promise may well be there, but delivery certainly isnt, is it.
Okay, here's my theory.
There have been a lot of 1M share sells since the July, and this may well have been depressing the share price. It could be one or two long term investors, whose shares were bought at a much lower price and therefore in profit, have been liquidating. As long as they are not directors and below the 3% threshold, such trades would not be notifiable. I note that when two directors resigned in July they were each below the 3% threshold. Just a theory. If there is some truth in it, the sells may be coming to an end.
I am a great supporter of this company, I have a great deal invested in it myself. So of course I think is doing well and getting better all the time. Tantalum, Lithium, Diamonds, Mineral Sands, Rare Earths. "At least 5x and a cult following within 6 months"? Yes!
Boring isn't what comes to mind when considering the portfolio of bizarre eclectica behind this stock. There is no grid-drilling for gold around some old mine or whatever here. At least 5x and a cult following within 6 months imho.
Don't be fooled by this silly low vol slide
Try the RSP for 5m - its been 0.77 / 1.35 for months - thats your real book
on here, very quiet.
Appreciate the sp has been a tad flat and the newsflow typically quiet, but i did expect to see a few posts from the usual suspects.
Proper boring stock this one.
2016-2017 Kennedy ventures. SP goes from 1p to 15p based on low grades tantalum / lithium.
2022 KZG has multiple revenue streams and the outlook looks brilliant. SP less than 1p.
It shows u how (can’t say the word) our previous board were by ramping the SP to get multiple placings away. It also shows u how rigged AIM is.
But it also shows u we have much better outlook now than any time before
Good luck all
FB
Agree, mac.
Kenya REE is a strategic opportunity with an eye to continuance of strong future growth as and when the current crop of companies properly mature and either need less management time or become subject to tempting offers. On which subject, in the questions of the Investor Meet link below, DE is particularly open about his preference to return money to shareholders in future in the event of a disposal - but always with the proviso that they must still be left with a company or companies in their portfolio that are generating free cash flow.
Oh ok, fair enough. Well, at least it's all progressing, that's the main thing.
HMS and the Lithium is company changing in any case, anything they add in top is simply even better from the current MCAP position.
Once multiple revenue streams are online the company growth becomes far easier due to the new funds.
GLA
Beg to differ mac, they have indeed signed the Heads of Terms but due diligence has not been announced as completed and nor has the deal completed because the first part of the payment is in shares @ 1.5p on completion which has not yet happened.
In his Investor Meet presentation at the end of July he refers to not having been to Kenya yet and it being part of his DD and in the questions at the end, he answers specifically that it closes when they complete DD and gives further info about what they still have to progress.
The interview is probably worth a re-watch in any case in the light of today's news:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kD5rcQead7w - Investor Meet
Likewise this Dig Deep one which is very relaxed and has lots of info, not least his view of the next 6 months:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqU2Rhx8Ic0 - Dig Deep
Due diligence is done, they've signed the heads of terms as per the released RNS. JORC by year end, DFS 24-30 months from the June RNS.
If played right, Kazera could transform into quite a large company tbh, these next 6 month are crucial to the entire thing. The more that positive news arrives the more they're on their way tbh.
I picked up on the Nickel in that shareholder presentation he put on after the Lithium deal announcement, he certainly appears to know exactly what he's doing as things are currently progressing very well.
A production update on the diamond operation with pan plant in place would still be very welcome, it's now been running a good amount of time, so, they'll know exactly what the output is by now!
GLA
mac, I think what must come first is confirmation of completion of due diligence and the deal having been finalised but, thereafter, they expected they could get a JORC out by late year/early next, around the same time that lithium and tantalum should have worked up to production/full speed respectively.
Now we also have a similar timeline to HMS production, perhaps including striking the Build Own Operate deal to enhance production x 6 and also to an exploration permit being granted for the huge adjacent beach with similar HMS characteristics, now that the principle of concurrent diamond/HMS production has been established. This principle being established is, in itself, a massive, unappreciated step forward for future opportunity for the ONLY company licensed to do this across the whole Richtersveld area.
Talk of a possible nickel deal being discussed too which, like the lithium deal, could come out of the blue. Not forgetting the MoU on other licence areas in Namibia and what progress that might see once other things begin to take up less management time.
All-in-all a lot of solid stuff likely to emerge over the next 6 months, all likely to help set a strong future course. DYOR
I've found it, by year end for the REE aspect as was in June RNS -
"· JORC Compliant Resource and Scoping Study expected within 6 months"
There's a hell of a lot going on at Kazera right now if i'm honest.
The MCAP seems laughable when you look at what is happening across the wider company assets portfolio.
GLA
Getting the news out and about is always the hardest part when a company like Kazera is proceeding through a pivotal moment in its growth.
The more it does the rounds the more eyes will run the figures and see the bargain to be had here.
Isn't the JORC for the REE asset also due in the short term as well?
GLA
Agree with this. This tends to be a rather iliquid share so traders (who we dont normally like) tend to avoid !
Yep. It needs volume as very low comparatively speaking. Looking back at trades, 1139 two fair sized buys pushed the bid - one minute later two sells and back it went.
Low vol and a few will trade for 3%. Nothing wrong with it apart from being a bit boring- but investing is boring most of the time ! Esp in this climate.
In AIM the most fantastic of news doesnt always produce an explosion, especially as this is such a backwater share and also the market in in a slump too. In KDNC we waited over 2 years for news of a deal which theoretically made the share worth many multiples of its current price and all we got was a wimper and now a further slide. This should be twice what it is now but it will take a major investment by an II or a very well structured marketing campaign to get the rusty wheels moving I think..
Sadly, displaying some of the lack of understanding of TTAU/KZG that they accuse the market of in their morning mining chat but possibly worth the listen all the same. Main thing right now is getting it out there. It's right at the start, first topic beyond the idle chit chat:
https://soundcloud.com/user-596578261/microsoftteams-video?
Just to add 2 things:
1. This is the reference to MineralCommodities:
"There may also be the potential of natural replenishment of beach sands. Mining south of Kazera’s licence application area is Mineral Commodities which has one of the highestgrade HMS operations in the world. Interestingly enough, it has a unique deposit due to the process and speed of which mineral sands are replenished by the sea. Since production started in 2014, Mineral Commodities has apparently mined over 9.7Mt so far which is vastly more than its original resource (2.7Mt) due to significant natural replenishment."
2. To add also that when comparing their actual profit levels (on much higher production) to KZG that they (and this is a crucial point) DO NOT MINE MARINE DIAMONDS. As KZG plan to.
GLA
...last few bob in here because it now seems anything but a binary bet. Hope the good news is only just beginning but there are so many opportunities now for one or other of their schemes to start making profits that it would be imprudent not to. But please DYOR!
with this excellent news, I’m rather surprised we’re still sub 1p... it’s quite mad really
@mcqueen... I didn’t take your frustrations as negative at all. It IS frustrating to see us still below 1p. I do think however, in time you be selling yourself short at 1.5p though although I do get why and I do note you weren’t implying all of it.
@steven.... I agree with dvh, this shouldn’t be a spike.... it’s a deservedly so rise...I just hope it remains northbound with so much to offer.
As with numerous mining shares, we are currently so so cheap on the sp....and perhaps some is quite simply market sentiment.
What I don’t get though, is that we are one of merely a very small handful that currently have so much in place and so much to offer.