Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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0.80 p ?
No idea but SP rise more probable than SP drop; already up 50% since the Placing; still a few unknowns but if favourable to the Co, then the SP should definitely rise. For example, we need to see if more funds will be raised, when (before or after EPC's conclusion) and for how much; will the SP be much higher then, thus making dilution much smaller? Will the EPC be released, with no hiccups, on time (by end of Jan)? What will the EPC new cost numbers be? Lower or higher than the previous one?
All in all, if things go well, the SP should rise substantially - IF!
What are folks thoughts on where the sp could go here short term ?
I guess the SP action is not due to the CFO's change.
"Andrey is a Chartered Certified Accountant, with over 25 years' experience in the mining industry including as CFO at Petropavlovsk Plc, "
Petropavlovsk went bust.
Its not me buying into KP2.
Although I own both KP2 and ZIOC (my shares in ZIOC are worth 3 times my KP2).
Similar story in both positions. Quality and size of the asset. Involvement of serious players (Glencore in ZIOC and PowerChina in KP2). What can go wrong !!
It could be a coincidence but I admire anyone who would invest their entire ISA allowance in KP2! I would've thought ZIOC was a better bet but WTFDIK?
Someone building a position pre-EPC locking? Expect 2-3 good RNSs in the next 6-8 weeks, should get the SP heading towards or over 1p (at least); last optimisation study had 40 months' building-time and USD1.8BLN cost (if I recall correctly); this means that now, with a lot of FEED work taking place in H2 2023 (at a 10mln cost), build-time should be lower (36 months?) and cost dropping too (in addition to USD bond rates, oil price and metal prices dropping in the past few months).
For sure, expect an interesting January; GLA
Looks like someone's ISA money for 23/24, but interesting its all going into KP2.
It's 'only' £20k. A £2m buy would have been better news
Interesting trade late in the day 3,076,923 shares at 0.65 (I assume a buy).
Interesting, thanks LTB
Mkt cap 22mln, cash now around 3-3.5mln (?), we probably owe to the Chinese 4mln minus the amount supposed to have been paid after 25 oct. (1st of 3 tranches -- 1mln?); assuming we have to pay the balance (3mln?) in 2 tranches (when EPC is signed - January end) and then 1 year after, one could say (IMO) that, even if the Co has to raise another 4-5 mln to kickstart the mine construction (just guessing), this fund raising will be done only after the EPC will have been signed and hence the SP will be higher (2x-3x?); thus, this future dilution would not be so significant.
In any case, the Chinese should confirm by Xmas that their job in-situ is done; 2-3 weeks left.
Looks like a bottom has been found for now.
Nice technical bounce from mid .3s
Thanks LTB.
And don't forget - soon probably - a possible dilution from further fund raising; Co mentioned giving investors on all 3 Exchanges, the ability to participate.
First, let's get the EPC in late Jan (latest, as per RNS), the financing by early March (as per RNSs), and the mine digging started (H1 24); then we worry about jackpots et al. When (if?) production starts in 5 years or so, the SP will depend on what potash prices will be then, who wants to buy it (how far to ship) and the profit from selling it.
Over the (very) long term, maybe anything is possible....
Let's hope so! But where's the jackpot?
Thanks for some great posts here.
Great that LTB is still with us since his input is so measured - and hopefully prophetic. Let's see...
Mitch,
Looks like the Board is taking a more hands on approach, and trying to push things forward; the Chairman has a lot of his own money at stake so at least he's aligned with the PIs. Brad had not invested 1 penny in the stock of KP, so inertia might have been better for his pocket. Not long to wait for developments (good or bad, we will see).
Excellent post LTbeliever, which I fully agree with.
And it is good to read too someone else saying - as I have always felt - that Brad was sacked! Should have happened months before it eventually did.
@Howardzz, 31 Oct RNS (Brad's sacking):
"The Company does not intend to appoint a new CEO until after the receipt of the financing proposal for the construction of the Kola Potash Project. The Chairman will assume the role of CEO in the interim. The process to reach agreement on Engineering, Procurement and Construction contract terms, and to receive a financing proposal for the full construction cost of the Kola Potash Project, is now near completion and is expected to be finalised during the first quarter of 2024 with construction contractors scheduled to be mobilised during the first half of 2024."
By 7 December we have more news coming. The Chairman recently sunk more hard cash, via Trusts, into the fund raising. My take? whatever happens, it will happen in the next 2 months; IMO, good things and even if another fund raise is required for the mine to take off, the SP will be higher in a year's time.
The SP shot up last year, after the invasion in Feb 22, as the price of potash tripled; over the following months, the SP tracked the potash price deflating down (plus, the ups and downs with the delays in the EPC, cash running out etc); just because a lot of bad news dragged the SP down, doesn't mean that it will not recover;
I was writing here in the past, mostly to dispel - based only on logic and public info - ALB's deramping eg that the Minister would revoke the license, that the Chinese will pull out, that cash will run out and massive dilution and bankruptcy would ensue.
Guess what? KP2 is still here and IMO, there is light at the end of a very long tunnel; I repeat, all will be revealed in the next 2-5 weeks (further dilution the main short term risk IMO) but the trend is positive. In the long run, Africa will need to eat and the West will move away from Russian/Belarusian potash. All IMO.
Good luck and here's to a great 2024!
Not sure what difference LTbeliever's thoughts make! He's been wrong as often as ALB1 has been right! In short, nothing voiced here makes the slightest difference to the eventual outcome. I've lost faith in any jackpot here - simply emerging with a profit is all I'm hoping for. Lesson learned. Just think of all those other AIM companies I won't be investing in! Seriously, investor fatigue could have a lot to do with all these 52 week lows.
This SP is a real lottery. But maybe the old dog will bark. I wonder what LTBeliever thinks right now. I hope he will come back to this site....