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JHOLDER.I do not know the answer to your question, but it would be nice if they did.A good solid Rns with no strings attached would be a excellent fillup from the Company and give a positive outlook that we want and need.Fingers crossed.
Dr Chris Ryan did a blog a while ago that looked at numbers being used by peers and there were higher numbers up to 800 still being used despite the bad market sentiment .... 800 was the number used by BA when the JORC was announced and related to a price already 300 off the peak. Downstream demand is picking up like a freight train so I have no problem picking this number for 2023..... also... keeps coming up.... but quality is king..... very low levels of impurities in the lab tests so a margin with be paid.... same as any commodity.
The cost of mining was again the post JORC number from BA. (Btw The good Dr Ryan has also produced a table on costs of mining of peers and 400 seems a conservative middle) He has said savings are being made but nothing firm on that..... but the key thing is margin..... I've gone for 200/te initially rising to 400/te as the demand ticks up
.... anyone not believing in the bulls on lithium demand should pick a different commodity to invest in, because at today's prices the profits will be small.
I am guessing on this but I think the 45 days for ESIA is working days. So 45 working days from the 3rd Oct is 5th Dec?
Doubt it very much.....
Do we think the BOD are going to pull it out of a hat on Monday?
See I left out a "no" before interest yesterday for which I Apologise JOEMAN.
Good luck to all those doing Capex projections,for me the first step was reached sometime ago when I realised the possibly of any financier outside SC was a very limited possibility.When I look forward I only see a cheap buyout for the Chinese,they seem to have the patience to wait 5 or 10 years with their forward planning and the money to do so.I also believe currently they can get all the Lithium they want a lot closer to home and therefore more viable.
I could of course be entirely wrong but do they really want to be tied to a BoD with a litany of broken promises and failed time targets.Hardly a supplier to be depending on imho.
Sorry Daz, that was almost worthy of a Bridgen award. I agree with the prevailing consensus that we have (at the moment) limited sources for finance and the full plant is expensive, so it is better to get into production via the lower CAPEX route, but the business case will need to include financing of the full plant.
We will see from the FS, but the first three years appear to pay for themselves, but dont provide a good enough business case on their own.
I believe its dollars.. .its the value BA used last (70 that is) and since the margins are quoted in dollars it should be consistent.
I will double check. .....
....or should I just wait for the FS to be released lol.
That is true Mr Cautious, we are waiting for a lot of news to drop and I am only sharing the analysis I have done myself, based upon number mostly given out by BA over the months and therefore not subject to the same rigor as the numbers i hope the FS will have.
You have to make your own assessment of the project though, surely.... otherwise what would you use to justify your investment in a junior miner? A tip from a bloke down the pub?
Its funny just read this --- AIM junior miner boards are chock full of great and informative asset valuations like this one, however if the market doesn't want the shares no maths in the world will make any difference !
I dont have the spreadsheet at work, but from memory the basis I used was:
Initial CAPEX - £70 million
Flotation CAPEX - £100million end of year 3.
Production rate - (yr 1-3) 1.2Mtpa
Production rate - (yr 4-9) 1.5Mtpa
Life of Mine - 9 Years
Margin - (yr 1-3) 200/te 6%spod
Margin - (yr4-9) 400/te 6%spod
Discounting Rate - 10% (fairly conservative)
If I can qualify some of my numbers - the early margin is my understanding of current prices and based upon a cost of mining of 400/te ..... Stab at longer term commodity price (average) at 800/te
9 years LOM - from BA in a recent interview
Inital Cost - (from BA)
Follow on Cost - educated guess from looking at a variety of other examples.
Im sure any of you could poke holes in this but 1. More accurate numbers should be in the FS and 2. In balance I am happy with the assessment.
Joeman,love your positivety and I have interest in dampening it,BUT does "expecting" mean awaiting long overdue.
I hope your belief is justified.
I know you are sceptical BiB, but we are expecting the following,
ESIA,
Results of Sample Trial (from downstream within our anticipated supply chain)
FS,
Permit Application.
What we have that others may not have had (and maybe explains the lack of share price movement on their FS), is we are already heavily in the supply chain with SC owning 27% and therefore likely to be in a position to arrange contracts to sell our lithium based upon this news. And with this comes the ability to arrange finance (conventional, forward selling ...whatever routes....they all become easier).
If the FS shows a LOM of 8-10 years with our currently investigated areas, with the flotation circuit added after 2 to 3 years, I actually think that this makes your fear of a Chinese smash and grab less likely. Ive run some numbers based upon what we have been told so far in terms of expected plant costs and cost to mine and I get an NPV of just north of 120million for the project (10% discounted rate). We wont get 1p share price on that, but we will all make a profit.
If im close enough to the mark, (and there are a lot of variable to be confirmed in the FS), the additional value remains in expanding the existing areas (imo a good bet for some expansion of value) and investigation of the remaining 7 -10 areas (still highly speculative).
imo there is too little proven value yet to make it worthwhile for SC to make a hostile bid to buy us out.... the additional value might be dust......
all in my speculative and unprofessional opinion. GLA
That’s what I’m waiting on Daz, at least we’ll have some figures to go on.
Roll on next Monday.
or
Esia, Esia Esia, Esia
the more Esia,s you get
The better for the planet
an Esia in the had
will show you a positive trend
by shekh zubeir
Shakespeare by the Roo.
Esia esia ,where for art thou esia.Lol.
Keep smiling Lads.
Thanks for the timeline JOEMAN,and although some say a paper certificate of Ministry Approval is not necessary I for peace of mind would prefer it.Imho confirmation in writing is nice it dispels any ambiquity.
it took me a minute to remember who bgs were.....
so 17th November then, unless there is a problem communicated, Kodal could issue an RNS ... even if paper certificate not issued.
To be honest, I think there should be enough reasons mid november to release RNS's it is a no brainer.....we should be kept abreast
Thought it worthwhile laying out the timeline so far on the ESIA
2nd August - original submission
18th September - Review of original submission with government officials
Addendum to original submission prepared to answer questions raised by government officials
3rd October - Addendum submitted
17th November - expected latest response date (hopefully application approved).
I dont think Mali Lithium had any problems with their addendum and the same consultant has been used (as far as I understand).
When is this now due?
Or is it a case of it’s ready when it’s ready?
I`m still waiting surely this could not be screwed also.
It's out of BAs hands, he's submitted the application and now we wait on Mali. If it's late that isn't BAs fault.
Although he hasn't helped telling anyone who'd listen that it'll be early!
I suggest hoping for 17th Nov based on 45 day turnaround and not before. Disappointment if later and unbridled joy if earlier. Key to a stress free life.
Esia is not about jumping the gun it is about heading in the correct direction towards the starting pistol.I don`t want it to go the way of the "sample" an never ending promise.The Esia will not change our fortune or bump the sp up,what it will do is show we have successfully transversed another hurdle.The benefit of that I thought would have been obvious,failure of the application would be a very problematic matter.This BoD requires to have its nose pressed to the ground on all occasions.
Asking where art thou in October is somewhat jumping the gun was the delicate point I was trying to make.
.....are we nearly there yet?