Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Latest news from Core Lithium, Finnish lithium project, Northern Territories, Australia.
Core Lithium has entered into an "OPTION AGREEMENT TO ACQUIRE 6 MINERAL LEASES
A D J A C E N T [MLS]" to their Finnis project.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416237-lithium-junior-miner-news-for-month-of-march-2021
As I have posted before Core Lithium*s Finnis lithium project, Northern Territories is "CONTIGUOUS" to KDNC*s Litchfield licence. Link: https://www.cadenceminerals.com/projects/it-Is/
This is from KDNC*s website and in the 2nd last interview, Kiran Mozaria , CEO mentioned that Litchfield and Core Lithium Finnis lithium project will be Australia*s next lithium producer. By the way, Finnis is the lowest cost and high grade lithium in Australia.
@MikeBikewell on the main KDNC forum posted here and on the main forum that he doesnt want KDNC to have their attention on anything except Amapa iron ore project.
Hence, as I said , Core Lithium is looking to buy any adjacent licence near Finnis lithium project.
This is confirmation that a SALE [or potential sale upon final agreement say] would not involve any time to be spent on Litchfield.
News,
Sun, 11 Apr 2021
2ND DAY AFTER VOX LIVE Q & A WITH KDNC.
KDNC shares fell further to 25.5-26.5p as showing on the main KDNC forum with a mkt cap of £39m.
PREDICTIONS OF KDNC FORUM FOLKS
£1-£1.50 IMMEDIATE RE-RATING ON SHIPPING OF KDNC AMAPA IRON ORE HAS NOT MATERIALISED.
After the flurry of predictions of KNDC going to £5-£10 also has NOT been CONFIRMED by
Kiran Mozaria, CEO, KDNC in the said VOX Q & A, two days ago. This was put on OPEN TWITTER to KDNC prior to the Q & A in order that the co can respond if they wished.
The only thing that Kiran Mozaria mentioned per others is the VALUE OF AMAPA IS US$600 MILLION and not US$1billion per posters own predictions ETC. Alan Green said that KDNC has taken out a NEW VALUATION ON AMAPA. So, KDNC has played it right and safe ie that only official valuations are of any validity in the market.
As for all the toing and froing on this forum, Mr Mozaria is said to have told shareholders at the Q & A that SHIPPING WILL BE 24 MTHS & RE-COMMISSIONING OF AMAPA WILL ALSO BE 24 MTHS although this is an ambitious target.
I did not registered for the Q & A as the question was put on open twitter.
So, in conclusion, all the going to and fro on this forum has come to an end -KDNC has conducted a formal Q & A for KDNC shareholders. This means that if anyone choses to take any figure other than what has been professional and officially valued will have to take the RISK on their own account.
As for SONORA, KDNC did NOT discuss SONORA Lithium JV with BCN and now by extension Ganfeng who is now a 50% partner with BCN.
BCN appears to have been talking to Mexican press etc. On the BCN forum, the folks there have NOW caught up what I posted earlier ie in 10 YEARS TIME , SONORA WILL SPEND US$10 BILLION plus $400m now etc. However, the BCN folks have not discussed what these FIGURES MEAN.
It is of importance to REM-KDNC as that appears to be in the window of what Kiran Mozaria said about FROM YEAR 8.
The SONORA Lithium project is RANKED NO 1 IN THE WORLD per all the stats coming out.
BCN is aware of what is happening in Mexico and as such the co is releasing FIGURES which they might otherwise not have done so. Why? This is so that there is CLARITY to Mexico what Sonora will entail in terms of $$$ and TECH needed to deliver on the project.
So, this is very USEFUL to know as it gives an idea how much the project is in $$$ terms.
However, no one is prepared to discuss this so one has to leave this subject to one side.
So, all the toing & froing has ended on this forum.
All the Q & A*s have been answered by KDNC or rather NOT answered ie forecasts by folks.
With all the excitement, the share price of KDNC hit some 30p region but has now fallen back in 2 days.
Sat, 10 Apr 2021
DAY AFTER KDNC INVESTORS Q & A ON VOX.
Today, Thur, 8 Apr 2021, the share price of Cadence Minerals has fallen 12.5% to 26p to sell and 26.5p to buy [advertised price, NOT live price]. Yesterday, Wed 7 Apr 2021 @5.30pm, there was a live Q & A as said.
Hope that KDNC can give further clarity to all the points that are needed by the market to determine the direction ie evaluation. Also, how much will the Amapa project need to re-start the mine post shipping stockpile period.
Thur, 8 Apr 2021.
Hi News
Thanks for updates
Much appreciated.
So calm here
Stay safe
Rich
P.s Carnage on other side. OMG !!
From the main KDNC forum:
1] KDNC will remain an investment co.
2] Amapa value is $600m.
3] KDNC can take the stake to 49% of Amapa -think they have to sell assets?
4] Sold on LIVE cost basis - 1st shipment out.
5] Profitable
6] Dividend
7] AA invested $1bn ?
---
My comment:
So, the above is as known - Kiran Mozaria would not give forward guidance as to
GROSS profit, NET profit %*s or IRON ORE PRICE for the next 24 mths of shipping, 24 mths of prep time or the next 14 years of mining. He would not be drawn on definitives of profitablity as he would have to get %*s as above.
Mr Mozaria was asked about £5-£10 share price for KDNC as postulated but he would NOT answer nor back-up this postulation nor the NPV of $3bn as postulated for Amapa.
So, yup, a good interview as everything got covered.
Wed, 7 Apr 2021.
@Observer842 et al
FOR THE AVOIDANCE OF DOUBT:
Today, Kiran Mozaria will answer Questions on Vox Webnair for those registered. From what I understand from the main forum, the session could last 1 and 1/2 hrs.
Since NO ONE said they registered for the above, I am not sure if folks are not interested or ?
In real life, one works at X or Y and therefore, our social media user names may not be known but in reality, it can be known by the hosting site.
So, whether real life or not, one would practice the same criteria.
Whilst many forecasts have been made, it does NOT mean that the MM*S WILL FOLLOW UP WITH THESE and accordingly MARK THE SHARES UP.
EVIDENCE? One can see that for a long number of years, the share price of Cadence had gone nowhere but south due to the negative sentiment alone ie 5p or slightly less?
So, I think that to be able to EVALUATE A REAL SHARE PRICE IS IMPORTANT both PROFESSIONALLY and even on share forums.
As such, it provide a FAIR VALUATION and this must EVENTUALLY EVENTUATE IN THE REAL SHARE PRICE.
The X report cited REM*s share price to be £5+ when it was 2.25p [Mkt Cap £95m] at its height.
Unfortunately, the share price NEVER went further than 2.25p in old money.
So, given that today Mr Mozaria will or may talk about Amapa, it would be helpful to all if he gave some enlightenment.
After all, we shareholders want an honest, open and value with integrity rather than
what one may dream about that may NOT eventuate?
I trust this explains matters ie that all genuine shareholders of KDNC, past REM*ers will want to know fair value as presented by the co.
So, everyone should be ALL IN 1 CAMP ie to know fair value per KDNC*s Answers today.
News, 7 Apr 2021 [Wed]
Since no one is interested to post on this forum anymore on FAIR VALUE for KDNC except for forecasts by folks, I have put it to KDNC today PRIOR to the KDNC Webnair [Vox] at 5.30pm, Wed 7 Apr 2021.
That way, the co can respond and confirm or NOT folks forecasts.
Wed, 7 Apr 2021.
Today*s Vox Webnair will settle ALL forecasts for Amapa:
1]£ 5 - £10 share price } NOT MY FORECASTS
2] Other forecasts. } " "
Currently, the share price of KDNC is 29p to sell and 30.5p to buy [advertised price] with a MKT CAP OF £44.13 MILLION. KDNC holds some 10%+ of EMH whilst the Macarthur Minerals stake is very tiny - this forms the mark-to-market portfolio that is available to sell if the co wishes to do so if it needs fund.
EMH*s share price is 85p to sell and 88p to buy with a MKT CAP OF £151.27 MILLION.
On another KDNC FORUM ONE POSTER WANTS TO KNOW THE VALUE OF KDNC.
Obviously, people want to know the fair value.
In my view, some basic updated data is needed before one can make even a rough estimate. The Q & Answer session by Mr Mozaria, CEO of KDNC today at 5.30pm should be able to answer the questions and provide clarity.
Wed, 7 Apr 2021.
P.S.
16] Whilst forward guidance cannot be given as understood, nevertheless, industry norms can be cited.
So, the GROSS MARGIN, NET MARGIN also is important for Brazilian ore co*s.
The MM*s will also be doing their assumptions etc based on the information provided as in the past. It is said that Kiran Mozaria, CEO of KDNC spoke to the MM*s relating to the co*s investments and accordingly, the MM*s have provided some value to the other investments as well rather than just mark-to-market as in the past.
So, folks may have their back-of-envelope cals but MM*s & the Market does not appear to take in these but rather on industry norms and figures etc.
Hope that provides clarity.
Wed, 7 Apr 2021.
The above will be held today and only to those registered can ask questions from Kiran Mozaria, CEO, Cadence Minerals Plc. From what I understand from the Founder, it will be about AMAPA IRON ORE PROJECT, BRAZIL.
DISCUSSION ON THIS FORUM:
1] Shipping as now advised by the latest info from Mr Mozaria is 24 mths.
Then, 24 mths also for prep work for resuming production. So, that is answered ie not 18 mths re: prior info from recall?
2] Iron Ore price is currently US$170.90 per tonne for 62% Fe according to Benchmark [CFR Qiandao]. https://www.mining.com/iron-ore-price-abov-170-on-robust-chinese-demand/
So, not $200/t as cited on Twitter earlier.
3] $600m Amapa value as mentioned by Kiran Mozaria, CEO, KDNC. Alan Green said that a recent valuation for Amapa was done?
4] No NPV figure cited by Mr Mozaria.
5] Cost? Is it $30/t USD or ?
6] Mine life is 14 years per old info.
So, what will be the longer term iron ore price ie MEAN?
7] 49% potential ownership. How much will it cost for 20%-27% and then 49% ie to reach 49% if so?
8] Who will be the operator of Amapa given Sino, the JV partner has more share in % terms?
9] Will KDNC change operating status to operating co from investment co?
This may affect IHT rules ie positive if operating co?
10] What is the P/E for iron ore co*s operating in Brazil but London-listed?
11] Will the sale of stockpile cover the entirety of the project development?
Per Mr Mozaria*s latest interview, he mentioned D?
12] What is the Brazilian tax rate as EBITDA has to take off tax etc BEFORE it can be paid out to KDNC?
13] What will the JV RETAIN in terms of revenue, EBITDA or post tax $$$ for operational use etc?
14] Does KDNC intend to pay dividends like other iron ore co*s?
15] What are the other projects ie LITHIUM that KDNC will be involved in? SONORA & Litchfield?
How will this sit with Amapa in terms of development?
So, every investor will want to know the skeleton of what is going forward as this will EVENTUATE in EBITDA etc. rather than guesswork?
Hopefully, all will be answered today.
All analysts and the market will want to know in order to assess value/mkt cap going forward?
In the past, KDNC was valued/mkt cap on MARK-TO-MARKET ON ITS INVESTMENTS by the MM*s.
So, now the picture has to be made clear and the market will accordingly evaluate as norm.
Wed, 7 Apr 2021.
DYOR. Kindly check for self.
I note that on Bacanora Lithium, one poster has provided links to BNAmericas article on BCN based on the El Economista article which I posted below. One can READ the original which can be translated into English to match the two.
There is also further news coming out of Mexico from BCN relating to water and more on the SONORA Lithium Ltd [SLL] concession etc.
However, I have had no response on this so I assume that there is NO interest in REM*s 30% JV in Sonora Lithium Ltd [SLL] of which BCN has 35% and Ganfeng 35%.
Strange that on this forum, anything posted meets with further ...but not on BCN.
Despite the link, the sp of BCN is in the red and one poster is asking why?
I think for those interested, they can follow news as it comes in and await BCN*s RNS to update.
News, Wed, 31 Mar 2021.
Just out from Mexico re: Bacanora Lithium
"LITHIUM BATTERY PLANT REQUIRES $ 2 BILLION IN 10 YEARS,
$400 milion in 3 years,
$40 million in Feasibility, Geo Studies etc.
Ganfeng Tech." Etc
httpsS://twitter.com/eleconomista/status/1376715805916733440 dated Tues, 30 Mar 2021
[Verified Blue Badge]
--
My Comment: As I said, news is coming out of Mexico from Bacanora@?
The above is also widely circulated by other press sources.
REM-KDNC & Bacanora : JV 30% in SONORA LITHIUM LTD [SLL], GREATER SONORA LANDS.
See what folks make of it. I have an idea.
Tues, 30 Mar 2021 @11:50 noon.
FOR THE AVOIDANCE OF DOUBT:
---SONORA LITHIUM LTD - EL SAUZ - FLEUR [Greater Sonora Lands, Mexico]--
Over this Sat and Sun, the above has been discussed & is as follows:
1] Sonora 250 years potential as in the Bacanora Lithium presentation and stated as "250 years."
NO details given on this aspect of the greater potential.
2] Sonora Lithium Ltd [SLL] El Sauz - Fleur : 30% REM JV
REM Scoping Study 2014 - REM RNS issued 22.12.14
I have now checked that SRK was the firm via a tweet from DL:
"Top shelf SRK have extensive lithium experience and it is great they are now working on ALL of Sonora. Cant wait to see what they calculated." 17.5.15
REM commissioned and funded this said Scoping Study [ref: Seeking Alpha article I quoted from with links]. Seeking Alpha also said that BCN did NOT issue their own commissioned Scoping Study. As yet, I have not seen this study in full except for the outline per the said REM RNS.
3] There is NO broker report on BCN except from VSA with a short summary and target price issued some time ago.
4] There is NO broker report on REM - KDNC that is current. Otherwise, broker reports on BCN and REM-KDNC would have set sight on the detailed Scoping Study etc. Usually, the full DETAILED broker reports would cover many aspects of Sonora.
Conclusion:
So, the aspect of the 250 year potential of Sonora is NOT elucidated by BCN.
For this reason, one has to conclude that there is NO VALUATION that one can see.
As said, Degsie on the main KDNC board spoke to Kiran Mozaria, CEO, KDNC to also ask about Sonora. Mr Mozaria pointed out a figure from the accounts from years ago of a total figure that included the stake in BCN.
One therefore has to wait until one can set sight on reports that will clarify the above points?
News, Mon, 20 Mar 2021 [Before the market opens at 8am]
DYOR. Kindly do due diigence. Kindly check.
@observer842
Mexican press now shining spotlight on Mexican lithium in particular and in general now.
So, one may learn a lot more now:
What was reported today PRIOR to the hoo ha about speculation and selling of concessions:
1] Who approved all these Mexican lithium permits? Names now given.
2] Bacanora has applied for 2 MORE PERMITS out of the 16? Not aware there were 16?
Or have more been applied for than known?
MORE IMPORTANTLY, ARE THESE UNDER SONORA LITHIUM LTD [SLL] THE JV WITH REM OR ARE THEY GOING THEIR OWN WAY? ANY RNS FROM BCN ON THIS?
3] ROYALITY
Case was said to have been started. NO UPDATE or RNS as no record one can find that a case has been lodged. REM 2014 Scoping Study mentioned taxes and royalty to be paid - this is norm. So, is there or is there NO ROYALTY TO BE PAID? This is price sensitive news, one would have thought?
4] Re: Tesla and Sonora lithium. 2 articles out on that? Will there be an RNS from the JV Partner/s?
5] Stage 2 is coming onstream in 2024 at 35,000 production figures?
Any update on that? Ventana*s production 2023.
6] MEXICAN NATIONAL DEBT- Per Feb 2021, the latest figure is for 2019.
Mexican debt is 645.45 BILLION.
As I said, per old REM @AGM, Value in the Ground at Sonora @$50bn.
Said its not possible for the whole 250 year potential mine life at $50bn, so not just Ventana [88% mine feed], 50 yr JV area only but the whole acreage marked in RED STROKES on the Sonora map per BCN presentation.
SONORA 4 x national debt?
Oh, that needs to be resolved or to ask Kiran Morzaria, CEO , KDNC as that is what any REM*er will WANT TO KNOW OR NEED TO KNOW. Otherwise, how can one know what one is actually holding on to?
7] All this is coming out of press, politicians etc who are discussing Mexican lithium and proposing legislation - they must have figures surely to back legislation?
So, many questions for REM*s JV PARTNER/S NOW.
KDNC has been keeping shareholders informed so if they have not been told by the JV partner/s about Tesla [true or not?], then they cant tell us REM*ers can they?
Rushing off. Had a long day and pardon typos.
The page freezes so often so I just type and not about to correct or edit. Sorry.
News, Sun 28 Mar 2021.
Hello @news. As far as I know the largest JV area "Megalit" (which is currently not a part of the Sonora Lithium project) is still only approved for title. Search for megalit in these documents for more information:
https://www.bacanoralithium.com/cms/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/BCN-Annual-Report-2020.pdf
https://www.bacanoralithium.com/pdfs/Bacanora-FS-Technical-Report-25-01-2018.pdf
@Dallas & @tomcat will know if this is not the case.
Ob.
"Foreign miners target MEXICAN Lithium."- La Jornada, 3 hrs ago, Sun 28 Mar 2021.
Quote:
"1st in line Organamix [Canadan], then BACANORA LITHIUM, owner
of the LARGEST DEPOSIT of this mineral in Mexico,
16 permits but 2 MORE in process equivalent to 87 thousand & 87 hectares."
https://twitter.com/lajoradaonline/status/1376186004281905154 [Verified a/c]
---
Interesting whether THIS IS UNDER SONORA LITHIUM LTD [SLL] which will include REM plc - REM MEXICO or not?
I have NOT seen any RNS from BCN re: above?
So, as I said, the ACREAGE IS THE THING THAT IS OF IMPORTANCE as that means that the deposit can be expanded and that means $$$. Acreage as in LITHIUM MINERALISATION via strike and depth.
So, one wonders if KDNC are going to be informed or know otherwise, one is just reading the Mexican press to know what*s going on?
Suffice to say that it is now COMMON KNOWLEDGE THAT SONORA HOLDS THE LARGEST LITHIUM DEPOSIT in Mexico and widely known in Mexico in many circles.
Nws, Sun 28 Mar 2021.
More on Yangibana but that is Barksy1*s job to post on that.
Conclusion:
HISTORY NOW RECORDS THAT EMH WAS FAR MORE ASTUTE AND COMMERCIALLY MINDED.
How? CEO of EMH was aware of what the Head of State, Czech Rep, govt, officials, politicians, press and ultimately people said. Given the Head of State, Czech Rep is a business man, the solution was acceptable to all. In the end, politicians were told in their discussions that
were it to go to arbitration [international], then it would involve time and legal fees etc.
So, in the end, a MEGA CZECH UTILITY took 50% of CINOVEC at double EMH*S MKT CAP. That was acceptable to all parties including people etc. SO, A HAPPY ENDING and today, EMH has a mkt cap of £175m the last time I checked despite the fact that 50% of Cinovec has gone to a Czech org.
However, EMH was astute NOT to attempt to JV Cinovec with any 3RD PARTIES. Hence, the situation could be saved.
However, in the case of BCN*s much discussed sale of SONARA SLL, from 22.5% to 50%, this is NOT the case. It has already COMPLETED ie deal in Feb 2021 so they can GO BACKWARDS IN TIME.
In Mexico, this is not something new and if the above did NOT happen, it may well be that the Mexican govt could have taken a stake which would have helped matters.
Right now , no one yet knows what will transpire or NOT? One can only wait and that is FACT now.
BCN CEO says he hope that the Mexican govt will keep to their contract signed 10 years ago [para phrased] which I read in a Mexican publication but translated into English. So, everyone is cognisant that SONORA has drawn ATTENTION so to speak from this said sale to 3rd parties.
REM IS NOT INVOLVED AND NEVER SOLD ANY CONCESSION IE 30% JV AND THEREFORE REMER*S HOPE THAT THE 30% SHARE WILL REMAIN INTACT etc?
Obs, let me say this : whatever plan we think is good X join with Y part, that is NOT what is at hand as our views are not relevant given we are not CEO*s of either co.
As for what you and Tom have discussed before, that is good and fine.
I go my way as said and this is how I manage cals.
I wait for further research when I have time or if I can ask DL but this is no longer possible as he cannot say anything more on this given the sensitivity involved now and also he is no longer Chairman wherein we can ask at an AGM etc.
So, I leave it there and UP TO EACH ONE NOW to do research, due diligence.
Let*s hope REM is NOT CAUGHT IN THIS and that would be a GOOD OUTCOME. Hopefully, Kiran Mozaria, CEO of KDNC will make representation prior to any Mexican govt decision as is norm.
CAVEAT: As it appears. One only has perception as no one is privy to discussions etc or agreements etc to view.
News, Sun 25 Mar 2021
This subject matter is closed now from me as I await further developments via press or official RNS*S OR Mexican govt announcements. Pardon typos as I am trying to type fast and cannot change down and up as the page freezes so often.
Also may I recommend using the search function in reports like this. e.g. I mentioned 75% and 100% in my previous message - searching for these in the 261 page report is much more efficient than hunting for them by hand! LoL. ;-)
Thanks @news. Incidentally these life of mines are a little disingenuous as (is common practice) they are based on resources and reserve recovery factors of 100% when in practice they are 75% for this project, meaning they should be more like 200 and 35 years. If you have time it's work looking at the tables and figures in the feasibility report: https://www.bacanoralithium.com/pdfs/Bacanora-FS-Technical-Report-25-01-2018.pdf @tomcat and I have been through this several times and are quite familiar with it. You might realise there is opportunity to start a second pit to the South which is wholly on the JV lands with the two pits merging in later years. That could possibly be the most efficient way to scale this project to 100ktpa :-)))
Fair enough. I have just come in and ready for high tea, hence I will be brief.
DIFFERING PERSPECTIVE
So, from my perspective, I have taken the REM 2014 SCOPING STUDY [brief]
that was issued via RNS of 22.12.14. D.Lenigas, Chairman pointed out that thus far the 4km+ strike [open and at depth] is vs 250,000 acres [or he used 1/4 million acres].
This is of the greater interest in Mexico that is being discussed as a hot topic. So much so, the Head of Bolivia has been to meet the Head of Mexico [ I have seen the video]. Then, in the Reuters article of a few days ago, the statements about Bolivia also came out from their Head oaf State and what he told Mexico*s Head of State relating to LITHIUM that everyone now wants.
In Canada, Australia etc, one cannot just acquire property if not a citizen. In Australia, all sales etc have to pass the Overseas Investment Board [see details of threshold].
So, in the case of the 50% sale of SONORA SLL [from 22.5% to 50%] of Ventana & EL Sauz-Fleur Greater Sonora Lands, this is where the SPOTLIGHT IS COMING FROM relating NOT to REM plc as there is NO mention anywhere of DL-REM re: SONORA 30% JV.
So, Mexico does NOT appear to have had such a dept to deal with this transaction.
It is beyond our remit at this time to know what is going to happen although SP Angel has commented on this in late 2020 and its implications re:SONORA [lithium].
For us, at REM [that is the official name on the agreement etc], we hope and pray that our position is looked upon favourably by the Head of Mexico and govt + politicians who are discussing this at the highest levels including their press.
Unfortunately, the former Chairman & Founder of REM is not on the board currently at KDNC so one cant ask him as that is not his remit now.
As for the JV 50% sale that is of hot discussion as said, it is NOT up to us and we have NO interest given it is NOT our man that is being asked anything.
So, we leave it there.
Many people are not interested in NPV etc. However, the market attributes MKT CAP to say NPV. Eg Vulcan Energy, Oz who have a NPV of some $2bn and they have a mkt cap of some $900m from the last time I checked. Their lithium project is in Germany so its a more favourable location for Europe. It appears they are trading via MKT CAP of 45% to NPV. They own 100% of their lithium and not as far advanced as Ventana.
I have also done some cals for BCN trading at % to NPV - that others can do as this forum is not about their mkt cap but rather REM and what the future holds and the VALUE TO OUT as and when ? That is qualified by POST MEXICAN GOVT announcement once their analysts have done their sums.
So, thank you, Obs.
News, Sun 28 Mar 2021.
KDNC is about Amapa iron ore.
KDNC .pl is about lithium - SONORA -legacy of REM days.
So, about everything covered.
DYOR. Please do due diligence.
My understanding from what I have read and heard is that the 250 and 50 year life of mine estimates relate to the JORC defined total resources (measured + indicated + inferred) and proven mineral reserves outlined in the Feasibility study. These are 8.8Mt and 1.666Mt respectively:
https://www.cadenceminerals.com/projects/sonora-lithium-project/
Observer842
It would be now of interest to everyone to see Observer842%s hypothesis of why Sonora is subject to Mexican interest from the Head of State, govt, press, publication, elites and to a greater extent the people?
What is your idea/hypothesis of the 250 years of potential mine life as put out by BCN in their presentation? This is of IMPORTANCE as this is now subject to Mexican govt interest and their analysts are working on it ie presumably Tier 1 global investment banks.
So, how much is YOUR ESTIMATE HYPOTHESIS FOR THE 250 YEARS and WHY THE MEXICAN GOVT HAS GONE REALLY HO HO HA ABOUT 50% SOLD [Speculation: Sale of Concessions per Reuters article - REM NOT NAMED AT ALL]?
It does appear that for 50% = $50 MILLION+, the new JV partner to SLL [SONORA LITHIUM LTD IE EL SAUZ -FLEUR ETC] got 250 years of potential mine life, NOT just Ventana 19 years mine life which was 100% owned by BCN previously. Now, the JV partner owns 50% of Ventana and 35% of SLL, 35% BCN [from 70% cut down 50% to 35% due to the JV updated Feb 2021 sale] &
REM 30%.
So, lets see Observer842*s hypothesis. Then, we wait for the Mexican govt, Head of State to inform further once their analysts have done their sums etc?
After all , this is WHAT IS OF IMPORTANCE TO THE MEXICAN GOVT, not just Ventana BUT SONORA , THEIR PRIDE?
Thank you.
News, Sun 28.3.21
Will look later.
contd:
Head of State , Mexico & Govt per Reuters article a few days ago said that the govt has commissioned ANALYSTS to work on it.
Perhaps, if as norm, the REM 2014 SCOPING STUDY - SONORA [SLL] HAS BEEN LODGED IN THE MEXICAN MINING DEPT, then the govt would have take also in hand.
I have only used the $50bn value in the ground @REM AGM per 1 poster which is yonks ago but have NOT used the updated 25.3.21 Fastmarkets LCE price @$13k mid-point.
That already has worked out to be some $ 6 9 8 BILLION for the hypothesis for 250 years?
From what I could gather, from the Reuters article, the point was made by Mexican press that the SLL sale was increased FROM 22.5% TO 50%.
In many projects like the giant Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia, the govt has a % share.
So, one awaits the Mexican govt report etc.
Suffice to say the 50% sale @$50bn value-in-the ground at old prices @0.1% or 0.2% grossed up @$50m + has not met with favour with the Mex Head of Govt, Govt etc? I am NOT PRIVY to Mexican discussions going on so one can only read what is in the press report.
Before anyone has anything to say, that is my hypothesis - ACTUAL FIGURES WILL COME FROM WHAT IS IN THE REM 2014 SCOPING STUDY ETC WHICH DL SAID IS 4KM+ VS 1/4 MILLION ACRES AND IT IS BCN THEMSELVES WHO STATED 250 YEARS IN THEIR PRESENTATION. In some press reports in Mexico, it was said 300 years??
So, if anyone has another view/hypothesis, NO NEED TO JUMP but just prepare one*s own hypothesis and signed Obs etc. Then, when the Mexican govt , press report further one can see it more clearly. One can only see what is published.
Thank you. That is from me, JUST AS OTHERS POST HYPOTHESIS.
As said, always Do Your Own Research and DUE DILIGENCE. CAVEAT: Check for yourselves and do ask if not sure at wherever one wants?
News, Sun, 28 Mar 2021
[Sat & Sun posts refers]
Hello @news. I thought you might be interested to know how much of the JV contributes to the 4.5Mt LCE of Mineral Reserves. It can be determined as follows:
https://www.cadenceminerals.com/projects/sonora-lithium-project/
===[
MINERAL RESERVES (Cut-off grade if 1,500 ppm Li)
Category Tonnes Ore (000t) Li (ppm) K (%) LCE (000t) LCE attributable to Cadence (000t)
Proven 80,146 3,905 1.64 1,666 116
Probable 163,662 3,271 1.36 2,849 723
Total 243,808 3,480 1.45 4,515 839
]===
The last two figures are the relevant ones. If 839kt LCE is attributable to KDNC this means of the 4.5Mt of reserves 2.8Mt are in the JV area (839 / 30%), which means 1.715Mt are in the LV area.
Put another way 38% is the LV (50% BCN, 50% Ganfeng) and 62% is the JV (30% KDNC, 35% BCN, 35% Ganfeng)
Ob.
**HEAD OF STATE, MEXICO, GOVT, PRESS, PUBLICATIONS, ELITES ETC****
The Reuters article of a few days ago mentioned that the Mexican govt wants a greater participation in their lithium industry and "speculation" via selling of concessions?
Mexican press pointed to the BCN 50% sale of SLL, SONORA? Kindly check the article.
REM plc NOT mentioned at all given REM has NOT sold their 30% concession in SLL.
SONORA IS THE HOT TOP IN MEXICAN LITHIUM AS T H E ?
So much so, one Director of a publication in Mexico has been to Sonora [SLL] and produced a video of SONORA , Ventana Ranch clear up etc. SONORA IS THE HOT TOPIC IN MEXICO re: lithium.
So, from what is given re: 4.5Mt of lithium carbonate equivalent, that is NOT THE ONLY STORY?
As said, this is only for VENTANA [BCN 50%-GANFENG 50%]
NPV -$1bn+ & 19 MINE LIFE.
***EL SAUZ- FLEUR , SONORA****
REM*S 2014 scoping study = NPV $2 BILLION+
50 YEAR MINE LIFE [BCN Presentation]
**************250 YEAR SONORA MINE LIFE*************
Per BCN*s presentation, then, if Ventana*s 19 year mine life = $50bn value-in-ground @REM AGM or $55.9 billion @25.3.21 Fastmarkets $13,000 price [mid-price], then to give an IDEA ONLY means that it [COULD] via [HYPOTHESIS] = some $ 6 9 8 B I L L I O N ?? [check]
WHY?
It has been reported in the Mexican press that Sonora ? is 4x sovereign debt of Mexico?
Or that is being eluded to given that the major lithium "pride" is in Sonora?
So, one thinks how can it be? Surely, 4.5Mt x $13,000 [mid-price @25.3.21] = $55.9 Billion cant equal 4x sovereign debt?
Hence, why just to gain an IDEA, one wonders how much would 250 years come to?
Ah, PERHAPS ONLY, the 250 yrs potential of $ 6 9 8 BILLION could [or may] be turning heads?
Hence, why BLOOD PRESSURE must be going up?
CONCLUSION:
REM 2014 SCOPING STUDY FOR SONORA EL-SAUZ -FLEUR
50 YEAR MINE LIFE is going to be useful going forward.
As Seeking Alpha said, it is possible REM [DL as Chairman] commissioned this scoping study to show value to REM shareholders but BCN has not produced any scoping study for this El-Sauz - Fleur per S.Alpha .
Without ANY STUDY DONE, one can forget any possible idea of anything but mere conjecture?
DL would have spoken to the consultancy doing their scoping study and therefore this study in detail would be most enlightening. I have not seen this detailed study. It may give some idea of the further potential re: 250 yr mine life potential of SONORA GREATER LANDS IE SLL??
REM ARE THEREFORE BLESSED TO HAVE THIS SCOPING STUDY @2014 GIVEN ALL THE HOO HA OVER SONORA. This report will come in useful to REM*ers going forward. For that, one has to thank the Chairman & Founder of REM for the foresight on 22.12.2014 [RNS]. The REM Chairman*s [DL] comments has indeed come to pass in 2021 as SONORA is recognised as NO 1 RANKED IN THE WORLD FOR LITHIUM etc. SO, HAS THE MEXICAN HEAD, GOVT reading from press reports in the last few days. Analysts are worki