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Apologies, that article IS behind the paywall ...
There's an orange button at the bottom of the page "Create Free Account" ...
It wants me to subscribe with cash. How about pasting the article here.
“Fastmarkets’ weekly chrome ore, South Africa UG2/MG concentrates index, cif China was $286 per tonne on Tuesday August 1, up by $1 per tonne (0.35%) from a week earlier.
“I’ve heard that the latest offer in the seaborne market is no less than $290 per tonne after the stimulus was announced,” a Chinese chrome ore buyer source said on Tuesday.”
Thanks Jonah,
My take from those graphs is that the value put on Jubilee's current PGM / Chrome operations is about 5-6p, with only 1-2p attributed to copper and cobalt. We already know that Roan & Sable are producing at least 520 tonnes / month of copper, which should mean total earnings of approximately double PGM / chrome alone. That's before factoring in the increased chrome earnings (at a much higher margin) and increased PGM ounces from the recently announced contract.
For those reasons I think a fair value in the near term should be closer to 10-12 pence. That's before the new chrome plant on the Eastern Limb which will have the dual benefits of increased PGM / chrome production and also reduced transport costs which will improve the PGM margin significantly. If they get this Northern Refinery deal in Zambia over the line then I can see the share price increasing significantly from there. That's before factoring in anything for cobalt which hopefully will come into play by next year if not sooner.
If you're in it for the long term then for my money it's a strong buy at these kind of levels. All in my opinion of course.
Thanks, made my buy easier
7.0p accepted for 20K.
If that's not forward selling, I'll eat my cat.
IE
Thanks Dorf and Seis. Two helpful and insightful posts. With regard to Seis' chart, the correlations are very obvious and cannot be denied. It is worth pointing out that even with the currently depressed PGM basket price we are still operating profitably in that arena. Indee, with our production costs in the lowest quartile for PGMs the basket price will have to drop below the level where most other producers operate at a profit before we start to suffer. I can't see this happeneing so I'm sanguine about the current fluctuations in SP.
What I would like to hear is news of the eastern limb development, which by my reconning should be making progress. More PGMs, lower transport costs and more chrome should increase the gap between the two lines on Seis' graph!
Like the rest of the market, I suspect, I am not attributing a load of value to copper until we have more information on production and time schedules from Roan and updates on the Norther strategy.
Stargate
I live in South Africa and I don't think you do.You are correct that the government has done it's best to turn SA into a failed state with rampant corruption with the load shedding a prime example when Zuma and his cronies ruled.We also have an anti white party (the EFF) BUT there is hope which I see & you don't.Zambia where Jubilee invests has turned pro business and there are parties in South Africa that are pro business the Action party which speaking to my black friends will dramatically improve their votes ,mainly taking votes from the ruling ANC party who have been pathetic at improving the lives of their fellow blacks and the Democratic party.
Having seen what has just happened in Zambia,there is a strong possibility of the same happening in SA which votes for a new government next year.
The main assets of Zambia and SA are it's metals and any reasonable government must realize that their future is tied to the mining industry of which I was a part.
You can note I am not as pessimistic as you
I thought it might be useful to compare the share price performance of SLP, a pure PGM / Chrome producer, with that of JLP:
https://tinyurl.com/yvwb9vv4
I've overlayed the estimated JLP PGM basket price on both. You can see that with SLP the share price tracks the PGM basket very closely up until the end of 2022, when they had some positive news which lifted the share price. I've extrapolated what the share price would likely have looked like without that news and you can see it continues to follow the PGM basket.
Looking at the same graph for JLP, the share price started to drop following the PGM peak but then recovered somewhat when the Mopani MoU was announced. It then continued to drop with the PGM basket but maintaining a small positive offset of 1-2 pence. I think this is probably the contribution of copper and cobalt to the share price.
Bushy,
I have told you before that you know nothing about JLP. Equally you know nothing about HUM.
BB2
At least Ramaphosa showed up at the St Petersburg last month. Zambia just sent their foreign minister.
Can't see them getting much help from the Wagner group if global political trends progress as envisaged by some.
Just saying
IE
I have got bushbaby in filter but I automatically report every post just to annoy him and because I assume he is telling porkies
Bushyfailed-how is producing approx 3000 tons of copper upto 30/06/2023 not producing ?
But we are ALREADY producing! He is one of the most highly skilled chemical engineers in the world. Why do you tell these blatant lies??
The only thing JLP does in Zambia is spend the money the company makes in South Africa.
If Leon can't produce in Zambia by now then he needs to get JORC in to grade the dumps because the market doesn't believe the grade is there
I’m wondering if Stargate is a BOT account that harvests data from the internet, I’ve seen similar before on this site. The account is just page after page of similar chartist stuff. I’ve reported the account anyway.
What a pile of rubbish. Talking out of Uranus Stargate.
Stargate,
South Africa speaks highly of you too!
Your post is another classic contribution from a technical analyst ('chartist'). Here in the UK, we are constantly reminded that "past performance is not a guide to the future" on every advertisement for financial services. This is only one of many reasons why I don't set ANY store by chartism.
Briefly, charts do not begin to tell the whole story:
1) Worldwide disruption to economic activity due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Do you expect this to be repeated?
2 ) Knock-on effects to global supply chains (aka 'Globalism'). Is there evidence that this is continuing?
3) An almost 50% fall in the selling price of PGMs, which used to make up the bulk of Jubilee's profits. If you read the last few posts, the production of Copper and (eventually) Cobalt will address this. They're from Zaambia, by the way. Not to mention Chrome, but perhaps you discount that as it's also from South Africa?
4} The power problems in South Africa are not confined to Jubilee, obviously. My South African friends on this board are better placed to comment on this, but I am reassured by the company announcing 60% of the chrome oprations having back-up supplies in place and that the PGM operation is within a high priorty grouping for electricity supplies.
Is that enough to be going on with?
If you don't want to buy JLP shares, that's fair enough. If I contributed to every BB for shares that I didn't want to buy, it would be a full-time job!
On the other hand, LTHs like me are FORWARD looking and therefore I don't think your comment is an accurate picture of the situaation at all.
CG.
Stargate-the business does not solely operate in South Africa -it also operates in Zambia where if things go to plan will generate more income than South Africa in the medium term.
Many companies also operate successfully in corrupt surroundings -the lower shareprice is more likely to be caused be current weak PGM prices
Chart position, the directors bought at 9, in February 2023, which shows with the subsequent sp, fall , that directors buys are not always timeous. The equity has been in large secular decline for more than 2 years, and rarely rather than a normal double bottom , the equity is in the vicinity of a triple bottom. The sp, is slightly lower than the first March 2023 bottom, so there is nothing to signal a bullish pivot. The business is unfortunately situated in South Africa, which is rapidly becoming a failed state, like Somalia, because the electricity outages, does not reflect the South Africa, when it first became independent. Corruption is rampant in South Africa, and business do not do well , in that corrupt environment .
The last few posts have been absolutely on the mark . I also have been holding for many years and have no intension to sell for at least 7 years . Judging by the silly volume they have successfully shaken out all the weak holders .
I should say Mopani also has the capacity to refine cobalt but Chambishi Metals was the only refinery registered with the LME producing ‘A grade’ cobalt metal.
We certainly have Frog, ive been invested for about 8/9 years, not as long as some of you, but a considerable time none the less. The last few years have seen a macro marred with problems, but we got through that and have been been profitable all the time. This is a concept i strongly believe in and i believe whilst the macro is against us now, this will change soon and change fast. When it does the 7p will disappear, but not only will the 7p dissapear, the reliance on PGM's will dissapear simultaneously giving us a double/ tripple/quadruple whammy. As copper, cobalt and chrome come into play much more significantly, with copper and cobalt very likely becoming the mainstay of the future. This is an opportunity i know you are taking advantage of and i have added a few too, i am convinced we are very close, to 25k tonne of copper per year. This is when everything changes. After 8/9 years a few more weeks/months is neither here nor there, especially when we are preparing Roan, its not like we are wasting time and at least spreading the cost. I dont think it will take them long to retro fit the new plant when they get the go ahead. The plan is clearly set, just lots of polictics with ZCCM. If this ultimately leeds to 40/50k tonne of copper and 5-10k tonne of cobalt in 2 years, a few weeks now is neither here nor there. At least i keep convincing myself! I do often wonder though, at that stage how quick future growth could be, with the wealth that would be being generated.