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I tried shorting ftse but it won't roll over with the oilies. Now just put a big short on Vod as its sitting at 120, I think when school resumes and traders are back this will be back to 110-112 within a couple of weeks. Anything with debt will get mashed
Cine just about gone, I can not believe VOD is still holding up with all the debt. I can see that going back to £1 quite quickly. Anything with debt in this market will get hammered come October I think
Just added to my short at £5.25. Has anyone noticed gas has spiked 7% today now at highs for the year. Be interesting what happens this week with Ukraine independence day. Good luck all
More deluded nonsense ×Drb83
For the benefit of everyone else Woody is one of your many aliases. Shame you couldn't remind us of some of the positives. One day you'll contribute something.
Who is Woody?
Has WBA given you a iffy prescription.
Spoons tills are ringing day and night.....
You don't sound bitter though Woody.
Can you contribute to why JDW is a good investment case. Maybe analyse the accounts and give us some feedback. Even if it's just the positives. I may have missed some. The fixed price supply contracts are a huge benefit and will be for the next 12 months. Can you share what you see as positives here. I know you had quite a bit invested in here. Not sure if you still do it not.
Steve he is bitter because he didn't sell his novacyt at a tenner.... Now underwater I guess.... Proper smart arse.
No bad smell Steve. I'm not invested here but using JDW as a study case. I'm completely neutral. Have nothing financially to gain from SP going up or down. I say what I see and happy to be challenged on what I say as I may have missed some things. Up to now, no one has highlighted anything to me that makes me think differently about the stormy seas that lie ahead for JDW. The annuals will be out soon and we'll see just how TM has been financing the last 6 months and what the going concern statement will consist of.
drb83- i do believe that you have a bad smell about you.
as i have said before investing is not black and white and you certainly have an agenda .
looking at your previous posts on other stocks makes me go mmm!!!
Thanks bigpunt. Well as I do know what I'm talking about I'll not refrain.
Even discounting the reclassifications annual depreciation on PPE is £20m. How is that immaterial for a loss making company which has a total equity of £270m. Bizarre.
£20m is significant for JDW and as my point was, it closes the £200m gap between net debt and PPE NAV by 10% alone. Which by the way was a gap you eluded to not me. Personally that gap is pretty meaningless on its own.
Just about all companies use their supply chain for 30-60 day financing. TM hasn't pulled a rabbit out of the hat here. The reason I eluded to it was because it needs paying back quickly and when you only have £40m cash in the bank then them loan covenants start to look very precarious indeed.
Profitable trading? You have to appreciate that TM is probably referring to Op profit at best. When Finance charges of £60m are applied then you're back to a loss. Likely to be a £30m loss. Who knows what the exceptionals will be. So yes making money but not enough to repay the loans that are falling due soon.
In the interims they lost £25m off £800m sales. In H2 they must be forecasting a loss of £5m off what £900-£1000m sales. I don't know but that means annual sales of possibly £1.8bn. That's impressive and yet still delivered a 30m loss.
So £2bn sales is the target Zoon to breakeven excluding exceptionals. £2bn in this economic environment. Let's see.
DRB well done for commenting but please refrain if you don't know what you are talking about. "After all depreciation is only going to reduce the NA". Depreciation on freehold/long leasehold buildings is over 50 years. The charge is immaterial so by definition does not require any attention drawn to it.
You do make one good point, perhaps accidentally, and that is it appears they use their supply chain for financing - although this is nothing new. They are leveraging their significant buyer power - I view this as a sign of strong management.
My understanding of announcements is that since trading restrictions were lifted and a little time passed for the dust settle, they are trading profitably. That is good enough for me as I have no issues with the financing of the company whatsoever
Says the bloke who has lost a fortune on novacyt.... The once in a lifetime stock that had its 5 minutes of fame... Now a dud
Bigpunt, in this environment debt and disposable income are really brought to the fore. Yes the value of pubs currently exceed the value of debt but that is a huge false sense of security and something the lenders will be keeping a close eye on I'm sure. How long until those 2 numbers meet. After all depreciation is only going to reduce the NA whilst debt looks to be increasing. If the debt covenants are breached then the debt could be called immediately. Any gap between NBV and current market value gets slashed as a fire sale will begin.
Throw into that a current ratio of 1:3 in favour of liabilities and things can become messy really quickly.
Disposable income may bring in some new customers for jdw but it's probably jdw's current customers who are going to be stung the most over the next 12 months so not convinced that the disposable income decline is a good thing for JDW.
You could be forgiven for looking 12 months out and seeing a better future but with a whole host of fixed low cost contracts expiring in 2023 and the £100m covid loan falling due and wages continuing to rise then cash flow starts to feel very tight indeed.
Debt is still cheap but probably because it comes with a ball and chain. The current economics have left jdw swaying dangerously close to the edge of the cliff. Not a great place to be especially with a ball and chain.
Not sure I'd be delighted with the position.
Interesting that those with a sell view are only quoting debt and less money in people's pockets.
The truth is that folk need hospitality in some guise or you are effectively in a lockdown, and we know the consequences of that lifestyle. I see declining disposable income as a big benefit for JDW vs the pub and general hospitality sector. They are the champions of no frills and their app-based ordering is market leading and cannot be copied because of their scale in making staff productive.
Debt is high at £900m but is backed by £1.1bn of freehold/long leasehold pubs (at cost less dep'n rather than valuation)
and debt is still significantly cheaper than equity.
I'm delighted with the position and the prospects of JDW.
Have a look at BGEO I averaged in back in March and April. In May director buys £250k. Tim last sold a chunk at £9 why is he not reinvesting to show some confidence in the business?
DRB that's exactly what I'm thinking, thankfully I hit the sell button on Cine a few years back at £2.30 when they took on so much debt for expansion. Personally I'm short JDW and long MAB as a pair trade. I think the directors here need to make a meaningful purchase for people to invest. The price looks "too cheap" if it is why are the directors not buying?
Agreed, the jdw business model of being constantly highly leveraged was working under normal circumstances. No one saw a 2 year pandemic followed by European war. The balance sheet is Uber weak and the economic issues will for sure put significant strain on both the top line and the costs. The next set of results are critical and shareholders need to be reassured that jdw can navigate the next 12-24 months without triggering the loan covenants or requiring a placing. For now, the market is very nervous about jdw. What's happened to Cineworld won't have helped.
I see Cineworld is just about dead now with the debt, over 7% of the shares were short. Will keep a close eye on positions here, hedge funds might start attacking soon ?
It will and soon I hope.
Not sure Clark. I'm vaguely aware of some bizzare rule where they could overrule their earlier postal vote by voting online, or vice versa; unsure if current.
I guess if they've thought it through, instead of their own favourite, they should elect someone the rest of us would vote for.
Tell you one thing though going on old Liz's comments a few years ago I wouldn't wanna ring in sick of I was working for her.... The papers will come up with something next week. Someone I think did mention just before old Boris Pinocchio went that she was always away from work?
Miln, what's the latest with the voting can they change their minds at the last minute now or not?
It's amazing how "democracy" in this country works
Poker, rather than chickens, I see tory party members as swivel-eyed loonies and such pensioners as have not expired since voting for BrexitMcBrexitface.
Clark et al, my local Spoons prices have risen 10% in the last 2-3m. In 2 stages, steady as she goes, need to monitor effect on turnover.
I believe the main issue here is the cost of energy. JDWs energy is still fixed at pre Ukraine prices and is fixed till next year. The only way they can generate more income is to increase prices and close the gap between them and other operators. Whether enough of the punters will swallow the increase is the big question. I believe JDW will be forced to, the city will like it definitely in the short term and the shares will rally. At the moment the management are not doing anything regarding pricing. Smart move with the revamps though as it will only cost more next year. Unfortunately I think the hospitality sector is in for a really bad winter. After the summer we have had it should be flying, sods law says we are in for a bad winter weather wise and this will not help