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I would rather they kept the extra cash in reserve (dividend as it stands is already sufficient IMO), rather than announce further buy backs. If the numbers are at the top end, or ahead of expectations, with forward guidance equally positive, then a special dividend would be sensible as an alternative. I am not against buy backs as a rule, but look at the weak SP performance during the recent buy back period - better value for shareholders can be found without them IMO. But they are often a tool used for (artificially?) boosting EPS....which almost always translates into big remuneration uplifts for the BOD. Which a cynic might suggest is the sole reason buy backs are launched. Anyway, looking forward to the update tomorrow as well. Ready to buy back in, if the news is satisfactory. FWIW, I think Tourist has probably got a good feel for things here, but let's see. Especially of interest to me is the TT update and forward guidance. GLA.
Thanks for sharing tourist
Very interesting post, I’ve been awaiting these results patiently and ama looking forward to reading them in the morning
Good morning folks, new here and over from ADFN where this share is not much discussed. FWIW I repost my thoughts on what we can expect tomorrow and in particular progress (or not) with TT. GLA
"TT numbers will be particularly interesting to see. They should have had enough time to make that acquisition satisfactory by now IMO.."
TT will be sweet and sour in my view. Based on Q1 I expect client revenue to be approaching 20% down YoY, BUT this will be compensated by USD/GBP strength (up to 15%) and interest on client balances in TT of around GBP 17 million, which is not small change.
With Client Revenues of 500m + Interest of 17m and a PBT margin of 43% we can expect around 45p per share for the six months. On a steady state 2nd half this translates to around 95p per share for the full year before taking into account further buybacks. I think they will do all they can to achieve EPS growth, however small, so I expect an extended/increased buyback to be announced, taking advantage of their 500m of excess capital.
What all this will do around the announcement date is anyone`s guess but I am still confident in my 920p per share conservative fair value once the dust settles.
FWIW and DYOR and GLA :)
Here's wishing for a good, more peaceful, honest and happier year.
Seems a bit odd the US regulators fined firms for their employees violations relating to the use of WhatsApp and other platforms but none here. Might be worth keeping this in mind folks just in case.
Something or somebody needs to expose the corruption and relationships between companies, market makers, accountants to name but a few.
As for IG their employees have access to such privileged information never mind level 2, imagine if you could see a whole load of customer portfolios in leveraged positions in particular shares and the close out levels, how much would that be worth to a shorter, priceless.
I have been a holder here until fairly recently. I like this company a lot, but I am still to be convinced about the wisdom (and cost) of the TT deal. The SP action has been fairly weak for a little while now, especially given the buy backs. Inside selling back in August (was it?) started to make me consider my own IG holding, although I did not start selling immediately. Not that inside selling always signifies bad news brewing of course, but nevertheless. I have a repurchase price in mind, but am also wondering if it may be better to wait for those results now. I may regret such a decision, but these are my views, FWIW.
Interim results on January 26th. Buybacks are going steady right now but share price performance has been miserable and can't hold £8. Any views on the results? Just seems to be listless.
What on earth are you on about I’ve never touched iCap ever.
Ace of clubs hasn't got a clue.
He said to icap was doomed at 119p.
Tp icap is now 173p...says it all.
Just like the clown eighteen who shorted to icap from 119pdi he is down 50% lol
Not a fan of buybacks, I would prefer the dividend, then I can decide what to do with the cash.
What are you guys hoping for in the next earnings? Personally I would rather see the buyback expanded vs dividend increased, although with considerable shares destroyed we should in theory get a dividend increase just by staying still.
TastyTrade is only worth what a buyer is prepared to pay for it today, and whether $'s of £'s; that's a lot less than "Generous June" paid for it with shareholders cash.
The share valuation reflects the market's disdain for management competence.
AceofClubs
It's not 'dangerous', but they might have over paid. That said, given the rise in the dollar versus the pound means the acquisition is worth 30% more than it was in sterling terms when the acquisition was made, so that should certainly give comfort to sterling-based investors (which I assume all of us here are!). However, ignore all that and just look at the share's current valuations - I think it would be cheap even if you took TT's contribution to zero, so I think this is a free option. Time will tell.
I have to agree that Tastytrade might be a very dangerous acquisition. The poor figures are just a taste of prospects should a severe recession be just around the corner. Not only will the amateur punters disappear, but if fast market conditions on the downside occur (as in 1987) then there will be no time for margin calls and the long punters left holding the bag will be wiped out. The problem will be if those caught out will need to seek bankruptcy protection, thus stiffing IG with the loss.
Our motor traders motto used to be "Fill it up with pug and sell it to a mug". Judging by the history of UK companies buying in America, the yanks motto could well be "Fill it up with s**t and sell it to a Brit". I think they sold at the top.
Having said that I made a nice turn in the summer, in at 657 out at 830, but I will not looking to buy back in anytime soon.
We paid a billion over a year ago you absolute cretin.. inventing profit margins or what?
The growth rate is awful , 15% is way below what we should be expected, so you think it’s worth 6x revenue?…
Anyway I know you are a clown who can’t evaluate anything, I am here despite that awful acquisition and I like checking your profile to see what to short. Since almost everything you have bought is garbage.
Here facts from last rns
TT revenue grew 15% or 1% on constant currency basis to 41.1m this is 164.4m per year.
Say if they had a margin of 50% the profit would be $82m per year. So worth more than 100m as a business.
Only an idiot says it’s worth 100m but then there are loads of clueless people on these boards, like eighteen
- tastytrade total revenue grew by 62%, or 15% on a pro forma basis. On a constant currency basis, pro forma total revenue increased to $41.1 million, up 1%, driven by additional interest income, offset by a reduction in trading revenue reflecting softer market conditions in the period. As part of our ongoing integration programme, a new Chief Marketing Officer for IG North America has been hired, to develop and expand our marketing and branding capabilities in the US market.
Hi Clown Eighteen
Back up with facts?
No I did think so.
How about you learn to read an RNS.
The last rns will help you understand what is going on with IG - making record profits
Something you clearly didn’t know.
Sounds like you have no clue about investing whatsoever.
Clown, if we bought tt now it would be 100mn all in end of…
Valuations have plummeted, nobody is paying a fortune for unprofitable tech anymore, Felix bought at the height of the market and over paid. That is it, it’s not fatal to us but ir sucks, a lot of people said it was a bad deal at the time and that was my feeling but others liked it, it looks a lot worse with hindsight but only with hindsight. It is what it is.
Look at the basket case that UK has become.
Do you really want IG index to only trade in the UK?
You cannot be serious?
The fact that they have diversified to USA now and Japan and EU as well gives IG index a massive currecy hedge.
In the UK - only the properly internationally diversified companies will survive and/or thrive.
SO can we please put a stop to these IDIOTIC comments that IG overpaid for TT?
Or that it was a bad deal?
Really?
Well in fact they have saved $150 USD by now because of the heavy falls in the British currency.
I know it was $300m USD plus shares worth $700m - but this also translates to massive savings in the deal.
If IG bought TT now - it would cost around 150-200m more.
So please stop being so UK focused that you don't see the deals benefit from the currency standpoint.
The deal was well timed- if you can't see this you shouldn't be here on investors board.
I find it funny that soon I’ll be handed £ thousands in dividends…but apparently I’m robbed!
lol you could not make it up
??
Ace of clowns posted on tp icap board at 119p
saying and criticised tpicap
Now it’s around 170p
Listen to clowns on these boards at your own risk
Clueless Ace
Best of luck
Sigh
Certainly looks like IG overpaid for TT (1% local currency growth is certainly disappointing) but actually $1bn is only a couple of years FCF, and time will tell whether this acquisition which gave them immediate scale in the largest OTC derivative market in the world, will work out. Whilst initial hopes on TT were too optimistic, I suspect that what is currently built into the IGG price is now overly cautious. Meanwhile, we are left with a company on a 7x PE and a >5% yield which is a cash generating monster which is still showing good overall growth. For me, the stock remains extremely cheap and you get a nice fat divvy whilst you wait for the market to wake up. In addition, market Vol is actually your friend which is a nice hedge.
So the IGG directors paid $1 billion (30% of IGG's market capitalisation) for a business (tastytrade) that struggles to generate $41m of revenue a quarter - no mention of any profitability. Less than a year later this business is going backwards.
On 28 June 2021 June Felix commented: "This innovative, high growth, high margin business gives us immediate scale in the largest listed options and futures market in the world."
You were mugged June, and shareholders were robbed.
No wonder the market assigns a P/E of less than 7 to IGG.
AceofClubs
sorry regarding TT I quoted a wrong figure. This is what it says:
"tastytrade total revenue grew by 62%, or 15% on a pro forma basis. On a constant currency basis, pro forma total revenue increased to $41.1 million, up 1%, driven by additional interest income, offset by a reduction in trading revenue reflecting softer market conditions in the period."
The Q3 update is solid. I'm happy with the numbers.
I think the market was expecting a slowdown in revenue - not sure?
However, revenue increased by 11% once again - a very solid performance which reflects the quality of IG client base, there are many professional traders on the platform. TT is doing well with 7% increase (constant currecy basis this was only 1% but still growth regardless). They have hired someone to increase their marketing efforts in the USA.
So it's all looking good to me. Best of luck all, Cheap