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Well they have downgraded their "recurring" profit forecast for the year by over 15% and signalled one-off hit of at least 150 million so hard to see this opening over 4.50 ... but we shall soon see!

Thank you for your thread and for sharing your financial analysis, which is clearly sound.

You have used the figures for 2023, whilst 2024 is already over. My own estimated figures for 2024 are as follows (based on closely following publicly available information):

Revenue - $164m

Cost of Sales - $85m (Depreciation won´t increase markedly unless on the back of an impairment writeback)

Admin & General Expenses - $20m (assuming 2nd half is same as first)

Finance Costs - $24m

Profit before tax - $35m

Tax - $5m (I estimate a 15% underlying tax rate based upon a sales-weighted average across the jurisdictions they operate in.

So, Profit after tax of around $30m for 2024 is my number - comparable to your $14,8m.

BTW. I am confident that there WILL be impairment writebacks on 2024 AND 2025 due to the falling cost of capital for GMS. You are right, that doesn´t pay bills but it does affect the SP as a $ of Book Value which in an tangible asset based company, is far from irrelevant.

Just sharing, I am long.

Thank you for posting some text from the Broker Report.

I have always hoped that GMS would actively seek to expand in the offshore wind sector even though as recently as the last annual results they were giving it little importance saying it was not an area of focus. The fact that they now have two vessels operating in this sector gives them more credibility (client references) to seek additional contracts. This is excellent news.

Talking of cyber security, I have tried several times this afternoon to access the Darktrace website only to be met with "General Error" message .... maybe they have been hacked :)

EasiWynns: thanks for your reply.

The other thing I can´t get my head around is why a BOD of a growth company in a rapidly changing technology environment is choosing to buy back shares at an EPS of 30-40 times rather than investing in research and development. It just doesn´t make any sense whichever way you look at it and suggests to me dysfunctional management.

Shortwhacker: selling short is essentially the same investment decision that all the folks selling on Friday took. Just a different mechanism. As of course you know every market requires a buyer and a seller .... each of whom have formed their opinion. It may be incorrect, but it´s rarely "laughable".

Good balanced post, thank you.

As you rightly say, EY will be reporting on the current state of internal controls. In my view, they will not be reporting on any financial information already presented.

Whilst you are right that investors are more interested in the future than the past, there is still a lot of "Recurring Revenue" that was originated pre-IPO and the big question is whether this was/is genuine or whether it may wither away.

Just for those who assume "short squeeze", I increased my short position on Friday. Of course I may be wrong, but it costs me nothing to hold the short position and I believe that time will prove some QCM´s points. Why would they take on considerable litigation and reputational risk if they are just spreading rumours?

Good luck to all!

Hi AceofClubs, good summary and I agree with your final two points.

However, I think TT is even worse than you say (8% PF constant currency growth). I have it at negative 16% - my estimate, but based on the company`s statements and publically available info on X-rates. As follows:

- IG reported TT revenue of 52.8 million pounds H1 22 - 5 months only
- The average USD/GBP X-rate for the 6 months was $1,37
- Therefore H1 22 TT Revenue in USD can be estimated as 52,8 * 6/5 * 1,39 = $86,8 million

IG now report TT revenue of 61,2 million pounds H1 23
- the average USD/GBP X-rate for the 6 months was $1,19
- Therefore the H1 23 TT Revenue in USD can be estimated as 61,2 * 1,19 = $72,8 million

That represents and estimated drop in proforma TT USD Trading Revenue of around 16%. Actually a bit better than I was expecting, but clearly the TT acquisition is not living up to the Board`s expectations.

I also wonder for how long IG can earn significant amounts of interest on client money`s without starting to pay interest to clients for the cash balances they hold with IG - doesn`t look sustainable long term to me,

I`m long and still think this is cheap, but we need to exercise critical judgement. Good luck to all,

Well that was pretty much as expected, positive operating performance. Going forward they need to manage costs more tightly, it shouldn`t take more employees to serve fewer customers and especially when they are investing heavily in IT and systems.

The 50 million extension to the buyback programme is underwhelming to say the least - as a shareholder I see no reason for them to sit on 500 million of excess capital and would rather have some of it in my own account! I am sure they will be pressed on this at the presentation.

Lets see what the market thinks, but I suspect a blue open and then depends on how they handle the analysts presentation. TT is going backwards on client trading revenue, saved by interest income and FX gains, as I anticipaed.

LWHL, agree with you re buybacks. 500 million of excess capital would give a juicy 1 pound per share Special Divi and no way would the share price drop by anything like that amount if they did it. Unfortunately, they have stated that, if they get to the point of returning surplus cash, buybacks is the preferred route so as small shareholders we just have to suck it up, or invest elsewhere.

Good morning folks, new here and over from ADFN where this share is not much discussed. FWIW I repost my thoughts on what we can expect tomorrow and in particular progress (or not) with TT. GLA

"TT numbers will be particularly interesting to see. They should have had enough time to make that acquisition satisfactory by now IMO.."

TT will be sweet and sour in my view. Based on Q1 I expect client revenue to be approaching 20% down YoY, BUT this will be compensated by USD/GBP strength (up to 15%) and interest on client balances in TT of around GBP 17 million, which is not small change.

With Client Revenues of 500m + Interest of 17m and a PBT margin of 43% we can expect around 45p per share for the six months. On a steady state 2nd half this translates to around 95p per share for the full year before taking into account further buybacks. I think they will do all they can to achieve EPS growth, however small, so I expect an extended/increased buyback to be announced, taking advantage of their 500m of excess capital.

What all this will do around the announcement date is anyone`s guess but I am still confident in my 920p per share conservative fair value once the dust settles.

FWIW and DYOR and GLA :)