Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Deutsche Bank analysts have upgraded Royal Mail owner International Distributions Services PLC (LSE:IDS) after news broke on Wednesday of a potential takeover.
IDS was bumped up from a ‘sell’ to ‘hold’ and Deutsche also lifted the delivery firm
’s share price target from 160p to 268p.
Irrelevant what the analyst say now, it's all about Mr K now...
Https://www.retail-week.com/supply-chain/evri-parcelled-up-for-2bn-sale/7045572.article
If this pile of trash is 2bn and is about 15 per cent of ids
You gotta be talking 6bn for ids
Get the deal done lads and ladies
Simx - Yes, I think Seidenberg is the real deal. You only have to look at what he’s done with GLS to see that he’s a very competent CEO and he knows how to run a successful business, especially in this sector. I think you’re right that IDS will go from strength to strength under his leadership.
There are alot of ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ at the moment…..I agree that IDS could go onto be a very good business under the new structure but we may not get a choice of holding if Kretinsky buys out the shares an delists…..
Which is why I think he’s going to have to rethink and come back in with an offer closer to 400p if we wants to get the majority of holders to part with their shares.
Money, in some ways a buyout and a fat cheque in a single payment would be nice, but I also believe that IDS is on the cusp of achieving its potential and delivering consistent dividends year on year, which, depending on your average share price (particularly long term holders) could easily be 10%+ p.a. The sp will follow and 320p achieved in the next couple of years. I also have a feeling that Seidenberg is a cut above, and capable of doing something special with RM. His plan for the USO was researched, simple, and compliant. I think £4.50 mark would do it for me, but nonetheless the future of IDS is beginning to look more interesting than it has for many rears.
Simx - Good post.
It’s good to see that the economy is turning a corner….but the geopolitical tensions around the world is concerning at the moment. Russia/Ukraine is ongoing and the situation in the Middle East is not looking good.
I think as inflationary pressures start to ease it could be replaced by geopolitical concerns……but I’m hoping some of the situations will start to curtail over the next 12 months.
I agree that this is the perfect time for DK to step in…..’buy when there is blood in the streets’ as the old saying goes.
IDS has got the best delivery structure in the country, especially after the investment in the new sorting/ distribution hubs.
The USO will be updated and restructured along the lines defined by Seidenberg because any other course would be suicidal, and the regulator are fully aware of this. Final results released May 22ndish(?) will be good; The timing of Kretenskis bid is no coincidence, and as the largest shareholder he know things we don't.
Macro economic data has turned a corner. Inflation is due another large drop next month when the reduction in energy costs feed in. The consumer is going to feel a lot wealthier, particularly with interest rate cuts looming in less than 4 months. There could not be a better time to buy IDS, especially at the currently absurdly low sp, as it limps towards a startling recovery on the back of an existential conflict with the union, after which even Dave Ward had an anvil on the toe moment and recognised that blinkered socialist ideology and dogma will kill the business.
I don't think there is any doubt that competitors will be looking at IDS. Kretensky has the edge because he only needs to fund the purchase of 72.5% of IDS. If he were to increase what he is willing to pay from 2.2 billion to 3 billion, the offer per share would be £4.36. Kretinsky knows IDS is a cash cow, and Seidenberg will certainly bring RMG to profit.
The potential for IDS at this point in time, the bottom of the economic curve, is absolutely huge. A renewed offer of circa £4.50 would be closer to the ballpark, and will have been considered by Kretensky.
Polishcap - ‘What is kretinsky average’
We don’t know. We could try to guess but the point is he’s been buying these shares for a good number of years now and he clearly has an interest in this sector….
He isn’t like the rest of us sat on a laptop looking at his interactive investor account hoping to make a few grand lol.
450p wouldn’t be worth him getting out of bed in the morning. He’d be much happier holding his shares for another 10 years and growing his empire.
What is kretinsky average
He bought loads at 180 when right at the start of Covid and it crashed pre surge
Schwee - ‘What he paid is not relevant. It is what he would accept that is relevant.’
What he paid isn’t relevant? Lol.
Kretinsky isn’t going to accept 450p for his shares and I highly doubt any other bidders will enter this race.
What he paid is not relevant. It is what he would accept that is relevant.
From Evil's blog:
However, late in he afternoon it emerged that the Czech Mr Daniel Kretinsky had been turned down on 11th April by the board of IDS when he had sought an agreed bid of 320p. Indeed the board considers that 320p is below a reasonable offer. My guess remains about 400p. Clearly some punter or punters elected to jump the gun when buying on Wednesday morning. Why the election?
Anyway, IDS remains a stonking buy at under 300p.
Polishcap - There isn’t a chance in hell that Kretinsky would see his shares for 450p given he was buying them at over 500p. Lol.
I think you were accurate at 700p for another bidder to enter this race. Which isn’t going to happen.
Really over the odds is 7 quid
450 is nothing
This business was floated 11 years ago at 330 and now it’s rejected a 320 bid
Gls has trebled in size and is a monster we all know that’s what the Czech lad wants
Royal Mail looks like the posties are doomed
Polishcap - It’s not impossible but I can’t see any other bidders entering the race with Kretinsky having 27% ownership….
Other bidders would have to REALLY pay over the odds to even entertain the idea of Kretinsky parting with his 27%.
I can’t see it personally.
Definitely another bidder in waiting here
You watch
Look at all the logistics assets grabbed recently wincanton clipper tnt etc
This is a once in a lifetime deal
The Americans will want it pocket change for ups
Ups FedEx and dhl to run the rule over IDS at this stinking price