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Two swallows now. Does anyone kwow any news?
Shhhh. One swallow does not a summer make. They are nice though arent they ?
Finally, beginning to move in the right direction?
Well, I set a limit order to buy more at 146, which was triggered today. I cannot see why this continues to slide when I can find no negative news that was not priced in a long while ago. Housing is looking strong at the moment - so I hope Ibstock has finally found it's bottom. But then I thought that when averaging down to 159!
I too have quite unwittingly purchased enough in brick to build my own prison. It appears i may be here long term.
What a rebound - Certainly looks like a V shaped recovery in terms of bricks and concrete sales. This SP still looks a bargain to me. Perhaps the market is just too busy elsewhere to have noticed? I see a major correction coming soon.
The latest Building Material Stats for July published by the ONS yesterday.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/913160/20-cs9_-_Construction_Building_Materials_-_Commentary_August_2020.pdf
Bricks
-There was an 11.6% decrease in brick deliveries in July 2020 compared to July 2019, according to the seasonally adjusted figures.
• This followed a 37.8% decrease in June 2020, on the same basis.
• The month-on-month change shows a 32.5% increase in July 2020.
• This followed a 45.9% increase in June 2020, on the same basis.
• Deliveries of bricks declined during the recession of 2008 to 2009. They have recovered slowly since 2013, until the recent drop due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Ibstock - the bane of my life :(
Thank you, Freshwest, v helpful.
These are for June; I'll be interested to see how the July and August figures recover, assuming they do. Depending on your perspective, the forecasts don't appear as bad as they could be going into 2021, but that depends on Covid staying in its box:
Key points:
• Output is expected to fall by 24.4% in 2020, due to the impact of Covid-19. It will then grow
by 13.9% in 2021 and 8.6% in 2022 to around the level seen in 2016.
• The worst hit sectors are private and public new housing, which are expected to fall by 35%
and 38% respectively in 2020. However, both are expected to recover by 25% in 2021 and
10% in 2022. Private commercial new work is forecast to fall by 30% in 2020, with growth of
14% in 2021 and 8% in 2022 only taking the sector back to 2013 levels, due in particular to
declines in the retail sector. Private industrial new work is forecast to fall by 16% in 2020,
but growth of 13% in 2021 and 5% in 2022 sees the sector returning to 2019 levels.
• Infrastructure new construction is forecast to fall by 14% in 2020, before recovering with
growth of 7% in 2021 and 15% in 2022. The strongest driver of growth through the period
from 2019 to 2022 is the HS2 project in the rail sector. Public non-housing new work is
expected to fall by 19% in 2020, followed by growth of 1% and 6% in 2021 and 2022
respectively, still below the 2019 level.
Sharp rise in debt will be an issue. Suggest you look at the ONS Building material stats, which are published each month. Usually published the first few days of the months. These were last months.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/906251/20-cs8_-_Construction_Building_Materials_-_Commentary_July_2020.pdf
Can anyone explain why this continues to slip - whilst housing is generally seeing positive news? Is there some news I'm missing? Or is it that just that bricks and concrete are seen as boring when other shares, which seem far higher risk, such as cruise liners are on the up.
FORT generates more with less capital employed. Alot more
can see this retesting lows (like FORT did...and FORT had raised more capital at substantially higher price)
totally agree - this looks a real bargain at this price. Even with second wave I cannot see builders downing tools again (possibly only locally to a specific site ) this won't effect Ibstock. There is only upside form hereon in. Have added another 20k at just under 160 to my holding. GLA. DYOR
Considering it includes the restructuring costs, the loss doesn't seem that bad.
I was hoping the announcement from the government simplifying the planning process was going to have a knock on affect raising Ibstock price but alas that didn't happen!
Going to buy some more at the current prices though, should lower my average nicely.
I made that mistake as well....Many of the building sites around me seemed to work all the way through (although at a reduced pace) and have been flat out more recently. I also thought that they would benefit from low energy prices without thinking it through that they would fully hedge this (which was a bit daft really as I realised this would be an issue for other companies such as nex).
They did say at the very end of the Q&A that things were picking up further at the end of the month/ start of August so their forecast may turn out to be conservative. I would however rather they adopt this approach and surprise to the upside than the converse.
*covid
Got to hold my hands up I called this one wrong I thought we would be much higher by now with all the builders being back at work for some time but I didn't look hard enough at the debt and that cover has hit much harder than I thought....now I have no idea which way this will go....probably higher over time....question is how much time....there are better opportunities else where for now ...GLA....on a side note this is a well run company caught up in an unavoidable situation....
In the Q &A, going forward they are talking about production possibly 10-20% below 2019 for the next year - Although not directly comparable, looking at past share prices cica 200p would seem a reasonable target.
Loss reflects non-underlying costs and reststucturing
Call at 9am with CEO if interested
To register for the webcast, please see: https://brrmedia.news/rgr27
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Confirmation code:
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yes not great but not unexpected
Dont forget net debt is up 66% 103m -> 62m
As expected I guess but I particularly like the statement that 'free cashflow was positive'. Always a good sign within any business and a strong Balance Sheet too. Trading volumes still below pre covid levels (again expected) but demand is high.
Also like the statement that they have cut costs by £20m ongoing for 2021.
So interims in summary:
- H1 revenue down 35%, EBITDA down 84% which is to be expected. Loss before tax £52m - ouch.
- July: Majority of manufacturing sites now safely re-opened, Continued recovery in demand patterns in July: Clay sales volumes at around 80% and Concrete sales volumes at around 85% of prior year levels
... what will they have to say?