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I was not suggesting those trades had anything to do with Delek but who knows? I believe, but do not know for sure, that the whole Delek deal we are talking about is the process that has to happen when a shareholder tries to go above 20%. They could possibly be going from 19.7% to 19.99% but that would only be a million and a half. However in the circumstance we are now in could anyone buy the shares in order to tender them to Delek to then get the deal nearer the 50% required - what rules are there for that? For using a proxy or 3rd party to buy shares in order to swing the "vote". This is what I have thought about before and referred to as "shenanigans" - would it actually be illegal. How could it be discovered if it was happening? Again I am not inferring that this is happening but the long run in time where we are now in limbo would make this sort of thing very possible as investors decide they don't want to hang around. It would be very much like buying up on the open market - but on a market that has been changed by the presence of the deal! I repeat I am not saying this is happening just asking how we would know if it were.
Are Delek allowed to mop up shares in the open market? Or because of thier bid does this stop them?
Why has £5.3Million worth of trades from 24th February only come up on the trades list on here last night or this morning?
Agree 100%. Devious or what!!!!
Just noticed there was some pretty chunky trading going off yesterday including about a million pounds in half an hour mid afternoon. Quite a bit of volume today as well.
Trust has completely gone but our shares have not yet! It is difficult to make a case for anyone to be tendering their shares at this level apart from individual time issues and for the larger shareholders possibly convenience - but still however convenient it is does anyone really want to lose out big style? My guess is that Delek and the board are putting together the worst report they can legally get away with in order to make C1.95 look great whilst at the same time working out to the last cent what bid would get them home. We have to hope that the market in general and the shareholders in particular don't fall for it. My real concern is that if the deal is rejected what happens to the board and what happens after that? I don't have anywhere near such concerns for the share price being on an unfettered true open market again - bring that on!
It will soon be a month since the verbal offer from Delek. Given the length of time they have had to prepare the work to be comfortable to make the verbal, surely they do not need another month to get the paperwork in place to make the formal offer? And they are an insider so privy to all the data. Would you not want to get everything lined up and minimise the time between the verbal and the formal? Maybe they rushed the verbal through and now need all the legal stuff to take place. But why did they rush? Maybe to get it out before first oil announcement? But why do that? Maybe to beat any re-rating on the share price? So why would the BoD have acceded to that tactic as it is not in shareholders best interest if the share price would have gone up some more? So odd timing for the announcement and now an odd length of time to get the formal proposal. It just gets more opaque and messy. And do not be surprised that the results out later this month are down playing the assets as they can not now come out saying anything positive -they have to justify that £1.20 is a great deal for shareholders because its such a risky business - as if we did not know that having spent 2 years supporting them through the oil price and endless delays... I just do not feel I can trust anything now.
But I dint think I will have to wait that long to realiseca higher price.
1.95 equals roughly 118p per share, so that is why I think 118p has been our ceiling. Not really a fair deal imo, I hope the other major investors go with cavendish on this. I'd take 140p, but I can see why a lot of peeps that bought sub 50p have bailed. I'm going to hold, because as a minor investor, even if delek get the majority, if they remain listed I think the sp will rise. If iae gets delisted, I would still be entitled to any divi, which they will pay out within a couple of years (as is thier stated intention) but it would be harder to sell my shares. However even private company shares can be sold, so I dont see much down side on 118p apart from time value of money. Ive waited a couple years already, whats another year!
If they try to get C1.95 through unaltered I think it will be out BoD who are reading what is on the wall. "Mene Mene Tekel Upharsin" was the biblical original writing on the wall. With the translation roughly as follows; Mene: God has numbered the days of your reign and brought it to an end. Tekel: You have been weighed on the scales and found wanting. Upharsin: Your kingdom is divided and given to the Medes and Persians” Whilst I am not a religious person I find this "subject" (hopefully) more apt for our BoD than us at the moment. This offer has certainly been found wanting when weighed on the scale! I also question all these delays.
Kejoglo, it's all good to me. At point 3, shares continue to trade for those who decided to keep and delek has to make additional offers at different prices over time in order to reach to 90% that will force the last rebels to surrender their shares, and that will include me... stocksluut, in the other hand, delek may have wait to have risky issues cleared out before going ahead... all just my opinion
Stock**** . Nail on the head . IMO also . Someone should pull the BOD up at the next meeting and put them on the spot . For many the delays due to junction boxes may now appear to be a work of fiction . They never did give out specific details.
The powers to be were instructed to hold this SP back and that's exactly what they did as they all knew well in advance this deal was going down. My guess is more than a year back this has been managed. I would guess even the delays were apart of the grand scheme!! its unacceptable but they do what they want and get away with it.
I think you just hit the nail on the head.
This should all be made clear when the formal documents and offer are issued soon. Which is another thing - why announce this deal before the start up of production but still be a way off being able to issue the actual formal offer? They knew that they were going to make an offer, they could have got the documentation ready and then issued a statement at the same time or just before. It seems that they rushed the announcement out so as to be before first oil and then had to get all the paperwork sorted several weeks later. Therefore, getting this out before the first oil RNS was their tactic and I can only assume that this is because the price would have gone up after the RNS making it more expensive. Fine for Delek, but the board should not have allowed that. I keep coming back to the timing of the announcement - and can't get away from this being a stitch up between BoD and Delek.
Hello KeithR39, I tried to clarify this a few days ago. My conclusion was this (anyone out there see it differently please say); If the shares tendered by those shareholders not including Delek are less than 50% then I think the whole deal is off. This makes sense because if it did not mean this Delek could just repeat the process and slowly mop up shares and creep towards a majority. This process seeks to avoid that (I think). If you think about it the minimum number of shares Delek can hold if successful in gaining a majority is about 59.5% of the entire company. 19% they already hold and half of the remaining 81%. I don't think they can "lose" the share tender "vote" (I know it is not really a vote but in this circumstance it amounts to much the same) but still gain a majority by getting above 50%. If this is wrong please somebody tell me otherwise! Hence 1) Share tender vote less than 50%. No shares change hands. 2) Share tender vote 50% and Delek buy to gain majority and end up with at least 59.5% shareholding. Other shareholders become minority. 3) Share tender vote greater than 50% but less than 90% The Delek shareholding goes up as an example 60 - 40 in favour of selling Delek end up with 67.6% of total shareholding. What happens to minority shareholders I do not know. 4) Share tender vote 90% Delek MUST buy entire company in squeeze out. At an offer of Canadian Dollar 1.95 I personally see option 1 playing out. I don't understand your "politically correct" comment. These people are after the value held in this company! Whether they are after it at 120p a share or at a revised bid they are after getting at your shares for as little as possible. I cannot understand what has happened timing wise unless I come to that conclusion.
"If less than 50% of the shares are tendered, does Delek have the option to acquire these shares, thereby increasing their shareholding beyond 20%?" "Take up and payment for the shares is subject to a minimum tender condition that requires more than 50% of the common shares being deposited pursuant to the Offer" http://www.ithacaenergy.com/media/news/recommended-takeover-delek "50% Minimum Tender Requirement: Take-over bids are subject to a mandatory, non-waivable minimum tender requirement of more than 50% of the outstanding securities of the class that are subject to the bid, excluding those beneficially owned, or over which control or direction is exercised, by the bidder and its joint actors (the Minimum Tender Requirement)." https://www.osler.com/osler/media/Osler/reports/mergers-acquisitions/Canadian-Public-Company-M-A-Guide-2016.pdf Furthermore, people tend to think that the management has already render all their shares, but: "In the event that Delek does not take up its right to match a Superior Proposal (as defined in the Appendix below) and Ithaca terminates the Agreement in accordance with its terms, the lock-up agreements will automatically terminate." I have a feeling that the guys have just been "politically correct" knowing that this bid wouldn't go through...just my opinion.
We are told that the bid premium is low because the shares have performed so well over the last 6 months to a year. But EnQuest, the nearest comparison, has out-performed IAE over 6 months and not much difference over 12 months even with the bid premium. So it is reasonable to think that IAE is perfuming like ENQ and recovering from a sharper than average fall due to oil price and FX. We would need to be above £1.20 to be the same as ENQ over 6 months absent a bid.
spot on Kejoglo - we will never know what might have happened to the share price and that is inexcusable. It was heading up based on oil price, moving to first oil and the exchange rate. It could easily have got to £1.20 on the back of the results in march where we will get an increase in reserves and some positive comments on future business. A bid then would have to be £1.50. Hence Delek went early. A new bid of £1.35 would look good now, so understand their tactics. They are not wanting to pay more than a single cent more. At £1.20 I think the bid fails but we will end up with a lowe price than we should have. And the board has ensured that is the case.
Foresight, londoner7, I think both your comments are generally reasonably. Foresight sums up the situation well and I suppose I cannot help but be cynical of the board because of the timing etc. My only difference is I cannot believe it is simply naivety. I would not be that naïve and I do not understand the minutiae of the process! Londoner7 your comment about what additional information the news should have contained and how worded has made me reassess things. Perhaps having waited such a long time with delays after delays, not just the junction boxes but the time fpf1 spent in Gdansk and the journey etc. well perhaps I did want a bit of bunting! Particularly as the timing of the offer and the boards reaction made me (amongst many others) very cynical. Given that we were waiting for junction box fixes I was surprised there was no mention as to how well that work had been achieved and the general safety situation, this was a topic in January but at the latest news release it was not mentioned, almost as if it had happened a long time earlier. Some dates as to when the "on-going commissioning" would be complete would have been good. Also whilst production figures are obviously not yet known we could have been given a timescale as to when that data would be available, rather than just saying we'll bundle everything into the final results. In short a news release that said here's good news, this is what it means risk wise and here are some dates at which we'll know more. If that is "bunting" - well why not after a very long wait? I am not on about ramping here but relaying actual good news in a positively structured way. As far as re-rating on first oil being minimal or not, well that's the whole issue isn't it? We'll never know now as that moment has gone.
foresight, After so many delays to first oil, admittantly with shorter and shorter durations, while Ithaca's share price continued to rise I think any re-rating on first oil would be minimal. I've stated previously that I believe Stella production and the oil/gas ratio may be much higher that the 30,000 (gross) and 50/50 anticipated before the first production well was drilled. Drilling results were better than pre drilling expectations so why shouldn't production be likewise? Of course I may be wrong, but if I'm right that's when I would expect a re-rating, and at the moment Delek's bid timing may allow use to catch this moment. In the event of a failed bid management's position looks akward but I'm still ready to give the benefit of doubt on their handling until more information comes out. That said, I expect Delek's bid to succeed and to delist Ithaca but at a price above C$1.95. You said previously that Delek has a preference for holding majority stakes in listed entities. I looked into this but couldn't find any evidence. Can you point me to it. Londoner7
I would add that my 'news updates' comment was not entirely in response to your comment but to a general theme coming from many posters here. Londoner7
I agree - when oil first reaches the tanker then it has proven the system is now operational. There is nothing more that can be said. It was a landmark in that there were so many delays - that actually worked in our favour as we are producing oil at a higher price having stored it for a couple of years. So no issue with Ithaca there. Also, the ramp up will take time and it does not matter how long really - 6 weeks, 8 weeks, 3 months.... The board has given repeated guidance on production for this year and we will now at the end of the year how good that was, but only then. Any lost oil from this year will go into next year's tally. So there is nothing we can do or they can do, we just have to sit back and let it unfold. The project on stream will de-risk it and the analysts would have come out with a new re-rating on the back of first oil. The new price target could have been £1.2+ like GMP had £1.4. So a bid post first oil would need to be £1.5+ to make sense. So my view is that the news flow we are getting is fine and expected, the timing could not be worse. And the recommendation by a board that is staying on just looks so bad that they have got to be at best woefully naive. Trust has gone despite them not doing anything wrong in terms of the assets - so people may question whatever they say now as to trying to downplay things to justify a bad position they got themselves into. So they are in a lose lose position. We really need a new independent chairman to smooth the waters and steer the route through this mess.
Kenjoglo, I take your point on Delek's primary interest but Dyas and Petrofac's interest trumps this with regard to Stella. We can speculate about the timing of Delek's bid - I suspect OPEC's move to support the oil price is a large factor - but I maintain that the sustantive timing is that the formal bid circular will be released after the final results and the update on Stella and this data and the views of minority shareholders will feed into the eventual bid price. Delek set the timing, Ithaca management can only react. I think it's too early to judge that reaction. As regards the first hydrocarbons RNS what additional information should it contain and how should it have been worded? I won't reprint it here it's easily assessable but I'd be interested to see your revised version. Londoner7
Take a look at my posts. I have always argued that people should not expect news all the time and that having many meaningless news releases is detrimental. However, and it is a big however, the timing of this deal and the subsequent news release is simply not good enough - it smacks of the board looking after themselves and not working for all shareholders. Whether they like it or not that is the picture they are presenting. I want details and not bunting very much like yourself but in that news release we had neither! Regarding ramping up production - you say this is in Delek's interest. The most important thing in Delek's interest at the moment is gaining control of Ithaca at C1.95 a share. If this was not the case then why accept the deal before good news is released and then why release good news so pathetically (with no details)? If the "real" value of Ithaca as represented in its share price had risen to 1.25p+ would the Delek deal be more or less likely to go ahead at 120p? Now perhaps I have not the expertise to work out the minutia of the process but I can just about work that one out.