mis678 . Yes looks like the worm has finally turned . SP finally starting its meteoric rise . No turning back now , sp building in anticipation of that top drive rns announcement . Then the drill bit turning . Then drilling news flow . A sniff of oil and who knows !!
From what I remember , or think I remember and should really check , but cant be arsed , they would not lose the contract by not reaching the target . Though could be penalised . There was a bopd target to achieve along with field rehabilitation activities [storage tanks , replacing pipelines etc] , drilling a new well into the cretaceous etc , geological studies also , by a certain time scale . There are penalties within the contract but not cancellation of the whole . I also think as SEA7 suggests that since a lot of activity has taken place even though BOPD increase has not happened as yet progress and investment will be looked on in good light and nothing adverse to ZEN enforced . It is not like Socar have just left ZEN alone to get on with this but looks to me as if the has been a lot of interference , guidance and I have interpreted some RNS as delays due to approval from Socar . As such in a close partnership some delays could be the responsibility of both partners . Nice rise today in anticipation hope to see the back of 4p soon . Then 6,7,8,9 then for me happy days . Hopefully C37 will light the fuse for this sp , GLA .
Meadow , thanks for the info . So going by the last tweet that the unit was in transit , then assuming it was coming from the same place as the rig it is now a minimum of 2 weeks into the journey . It could have course be any amount of time into its journey or just setting off as it was "in transit" on the 30th May. I think if I was a betting man I would be inclined to agree with Oil Expert and say the 17th to rns that it is either onsite or ready to start drilling . Based on the closed period as Oil Expert says and a lot of guesswork regarding when it started its journey and from where . So news this week would be good or failing that then news Monday also good . If someone could arrange that for us please .
Meadow . What was the last transit route? . Its just I wasn't really keeping up with this but at the time I was looking at two routes from Italy . Both really just a matter of a few days if by car . But was allowing for very slow lorry speed and delays at customs . Did we get details of the previous route taken when moving the drilling rig ? Do we know where the top drive is coming from and the route it is taking? I haven't been keeping up with all the news and tweets .
Ezhik . Always the case with low sentiment and lack of news flow . The mms will punish the sp .The top drive is on its way just a question of when it turns up and I don't know how that can be speeded up . My concern is with the AGM and 'special meeting' on Monday is it going to be Mon/Tue before we hear anything . I , like everyone else is checking every day but would certainly be hoping to hear something before the weekend . Could be a good chance to grab some more this week but some may hold back with concerns of what the special meeting may be about .
csm1986 . Yes , of course you are correct . 5bpd with the obstruction so now that was cleared out early doors that would have increased production had the well been put back on line . I also am not aware of any production figures for this well even when first drilled , I think people were initially making comparisons to a well drilled close by .
Failure here on C37 would IMO be difficult . Failure would be 5bpd , where we were before the workover commenced . I know it is easy to forget when we see a falling share price but the facts are the whole concession is practically floating on oil . The Russians were drilling at random and found some very good producers , initially . Socar drilled a few wells but not much really happened after the Russians left . With reinterpretation of the old information and the new findings , more geologists on board , new structures identified . Drilling into a structurally intact well to deepen it .We all know the potential of the concession , even AJ is positive on the potential here . The sp will rise soon enough leading into the drill and positivity will return . We all know that a good result here should have a major impact on the sp . ZEN just need to make sure now that there are going to be no more delays .
Thanks Bear666 / Jungmana . Most interesting . Particularly with his recent success in BLOE . If my research was correct I think he crossed the 3% threshold early March . Shortly before the sp went from 3.9 to 17p . Pretty good timing and perhaps he intends to do the same here . Follow the money people say , especially the ones who know what they are doing ! .
Bear666 . Last time I read Dean Clark was a just over 5% and over 8m shares but that was last year sometime. I am particularly interested in when he increased his holding as I have missed it , can you enlighten me .
The only point I was making was irrespective of any possible news , based on a realistic timeframe of when the drill starts turning is long enough for a small wobble or two in the sp . Traders will not allow the sp to remain static if there is still time to make a quick 10% here or there . Once drilling starts we should see a nice rise . Hopefully on top of a small pre drill rise .
approaching . I think I did say just last week I was expecting another top up opportunity before the drill starts turning . This may not be the only one though most wouldn't expect it to drop much . Don't see it dropping much further . 2.7/8 would do me . A steady rise would have been nice but the markets don't always work like that . Fill your boots
AC does have a lot of 'skin in the game' and is no doubt sitting at a reasonably low average at the moment but it has certainly cost him a lot to bring his average down , he has invested far more of his own money than anyone else here . He is now basically locked in until the sp is at a reasonable level . That level will only come with a good workover result . If he were to notify the market that he has been selling some before we get a good result then too many people would follow suit and devastate the sp . And the rest of his shares would be worth nowt . He needs a good result from C37 just as badly as the rest of us .
Mudstud . Lets hope so , 50% from here to drilling would please most of the long term holder . But knowing how markets are played I wouldn't rule anything out . A small drop into the 2's prior to drilling would be a chance to grab some but I will be just as happy with a steady rise . If they come up trumps on C37 we will all be happy . Well nearly all of us . Shouldn't be too long now!!