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KeithR39, I agree. It points to good numbers from Stella. For some time I've anticipated higher than the nominal 30K gross from Stella which would give Ithaca a total run rate above 25K boepd when Stella reaches plateau. Londoner7
Mamba, even if they succeed to the 50%, they surely wont reach 90%, at least not with this bid imho, which would be the only case that would trigger a forced sell. So, you can keep your shares if you want...
Londoner7, They anticipate 9200 boepd 1st Q 2017 with a bit more delays to Stella ramp up which should lead to roughly 10,000 boepd average for 1st half. And they keep a 20,000 boepd for total 2017 year average. So, they now anticipate about 30,000 boepd in 2nd half : (10,000 boepd 1st half + 30,000 boepd 2nd half) / 2 = 20,000 boepd yearly average...it is more than the first estimated plateau at 25,000 k....
Hahaha not happening. IAE has already been sold at 120p.ofcourse this was day light robbery. But it is what it is. Bod, analyst and brokers all have accepted the offer. It's just retailers banging drums. Sell out guys.
just do nothing - its a tender so if you do not proactively tender then it is in effect a no vote
Do you need to formally reject the offer or is it a case of sit back and wait and see?
As I see it, they have confirmed volumes through the independent reserve report and have confirmed rates through the annual guidance. They have not said anything negative about the mechanical performance of the facilities. Therefore, all seems to be in line with the previous guidance. Unless there is a material change to the end year numbers, then I am not sure there is anything more that needs to be said. The increase in reserves in my view is significant and production now started de-risks the asset. So we are in a better place than previously where the analysts were calling £1-1.4 share. Absent the bid, would have thought this would be upgraded to £1.5 share. We are in a period of weaker oil prices affecting the sector. My view is that prices will recover next year to the $60 range. There has been a lot of damage to the industry that will feed through sometime. So I would think based on past performance that this could be a £1.5-£2 share in the next 12 months. The fate of the bid is in the hands of the small retail holders as I do not believe the main institutional ones will take this. It is touch and go whether Delek get the 40% they need but I am happy to be a minority shareholder in a Delek controlled company backed by them to grow through acquisition. Unless you want the car, then I can see no logic in selling out now at the current premium. If the offered £1.5 I would be happy and on my way. Lets see....
Sit back and wait it out no rush even lowering mm's lowering the price put the wind up PI'S feck em I say.
Good assessment foresight. But the gas issues affecting the ramp up has allowed Ithaca to avoid giving any indication of likely Stella volumes or the oil / gas split before the offer date. The 1,700 barrels of oil per day since first oil 17th February doesn’t provide the slightest insight to these numbers. For me this is a big disappointment, because if the Delek bid succeeds I may never get to know the plateau numbers I’ve anticipated the last few years. (But as you point out, full year guidance is unchanged.) Delek will be relying on the actions of inexperienced investors responding to their broker’s notice date, typically 12th April to give them an indication of acceptance levels by the closing date of the 20th April. Some investors seem to be fearful that if they do not respond by the closing date and the Delek bid succeeds they will be left in a minority position. This is wrong – if the Delek bid succeeds it is a mandatory requirement for Delek to extend the bid deadline for a minimum of 10 days for remaining shareholders to accept the offer – but Delek will be hoping to gain from this ignorance. I hope these inexperienced shareholders have been selling out and the shares are now in stronger hands. Londoner7
Wait! Bigger increase in reserves than I anticipated. Otherwise everything going to plan. Watch and wait.
http://www.ithacaenergy.com/media/news/2016-financial-results - Production cost already way down to $23/boe and Stella not in the numbers yet, expected to reach $18/boe. - Stella very slowly started and ramp up a bit delayed, strange timing... - Reserves up to 76 MMBOE from 57 and it is not material enough to change the offer valuation??? - If you do the math, they anticipate that production with Stella at full power will reach 30,000 boe in the second half. - And the tone is very shy suddenly... All just my personal opinion
I'm tempted to wait - what do others think??
Yes - slow to ramp up but not an issue as seems a few weeks more to reach maximum output than originally planned. Still giving guidance for 20k bpd average this year in line with last forecast. Operating costs also the same at $18/barrel. Big increase in reserves to 76million from 55million. All in all - things seem to be on track and with Harrier on stream next year, then Vorlich and others, there is a good story around Stella. If we get to higher oil prices in the next couple of years when eventually the non-Opec production declines due to the lack of investment, then we will see the benefit of higher oil prices and higher production. Ithaca a good platform to do some more acquisitions from the majors at good prices and build form here. Hopefully Delek don't spoil the party...
Spot on upside . More lame duck excuses . On any normal job all this would have completed before leaving the yard . The junction box excuses were in some peoples opinion a pack of lies and perhaps an indication of how the whole project has been . The first oil RNS and this pathetic news release quite clearly shows where the loyalties of the BOD lay . Is it with the company and the shareholders or with themselves .
RNS...... The fpf 1 is very slow to ramp up production. Wonder why.
The results are out tomorrow and this will be the last communication I suspect before a decision on tendering your shares. Lets see what the tone is. All previous presentations have been bullish reflecting what a great job management have done in the face of adversity. Will be interesting now to see if they highlight the risks more than previously in which case the are working in collusion with Delek. It is worth noting that it is very early days in the start up of Stella and there is a risk that any downtime or technical issues in getting the system fully operational will be jumped on as evidence that there is plenty of risk left and so getting out now is a great opportunity for us!
Selling now unless it's loaned money or has to be paid back, when if you took the offer it's £1.20 or there about's that' is good money from £1.15 depending how many one holds?, but each to there own.
Even if Delek succeed to the 50%+, the remaining shares keep trading and it is extremely unlikely that the stock would be delisted from major markets, these informations available in the circular. A lot of things are clearly stated, it's worth a read. You can find it on SEDAR website or Ithaca website. "The rules and regulations of the TSX and AIM establish certain criteria which, if not met, could lead to the cessation of trading and delisting of the Common Shares from the TSX and/or AIM. According to the TSX Company Manual, the Common Shares may be involuntarily delisted if (i) the market value of the freely-tradable, publicly held Common Shares is less than $2,000,000 over any period of 30 consecutive trading days, (ii) the number of freelytradable, publicly held Common Shares is less than 500,000; or (iii) the number of public security holders, each holding a board lot or more, is less than 150 in each case exclusive of holdings of officers and directors of Ithaca and persons who own or control, directly or indirectly, 10% or more of the Common Shares(...)Furthermore, Ithaca may apply to have the Common Shares voluntarily delisted from the TSX, in which case section 720 of the TSX Company Manual may, subject to TSX discretion, require minority shareholder approval..." Just my opinion, from my read of the circular...
i received the same message from Halifax, Like yourself i'm holding back to see what happens. I assume if the Delek gets 50 percent we would receive a second request to sell shares to them.... Would i be correct in thinking this ?? Can deleK only delist if they get over 90 percent ??
Notification today regarding takeup of the offer last date to agree or not is the 12th April 23:59 hrs, I'm waiting to see what materialises between now and then.
Your figures are correct but what you are arguing for is for the Canadian dollar to appreciate, not slump, against the pound. The fewer dollars to the pound, the more pounds to the dollar! If you own an asset priced in an appreciating currency the return in pounds improves.
Hello B B, Have another look at what I wrote:- """If the deal goes through at C$1.95 lets hope the value of the C$ slumps against the UK£.""" As you say """At the moment £1 = C$1.6493 so C$1.95 = £1.1823""" Given this scenario 30,000 Ithaca shares is worth, 30,000 x £1.1823 = £35,469. Lets imagine the UK£ v C$ is as follows:- The C$ falls against the UK£. £1.00 = C$1.60. Delek offer price =C$1.95. Therefore C$1.95 at an exchange rate of C$1.60 = £1.21875. Which means that 30,000 Ithaca shares at £1.21875 = £36,562.50. This is an increase of £1093.50 on the value of 30,000 shares. The above is the reason I hope the C$ slumps against the UK£. Carliol
Delek can't buy anymore shares on the free market, they are already at 20%-1: "The formal “take-over bid” requirements are triggered when the securities subject to a bid combined with the securities owned by the bidder constitute 20% or more of the outstanding securities of any class. " http://www.mcmillan.ca/files/Overview_take-over_bids_in_Canada_c4.pdf
At the moment £1 = C$1.6493 so C$1.95 = £1.1823 If £ went up to £1 = C$1.75 then C$1.95 = £1.1143 So I think you're praying for it to go the wrong way mate!
Good Evening Everyone, I rarely post on LSE but thought it worth mentioning that two delayed trades have gone through from last Thursday. The total number of shares bought is 2,798,210 at 116.50p for a consideration of £3.274 million. I wonder who is buying these shares? Delek or another ii hoping for a further bid that will no doubt sent the share price to more realistic levels. I also noticed that last week there were some very substantial delayed trades went through. I've been following the Ithaca share price closely and the fluctuations in the sp appear to be very similar to the ups and downs of the C$. When the C$ falls the Ithaca share price rises. If the deal goes through at C$1.95 lets hope the value of the C$ slumps against the UK£. I wonder what the chances are of a hostile bid coming in? Carliol