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It is ridiculous that they need to remind shareholders - do they think we are all stupid? I find LT very patronising or maybe he is just desperate. As I have said, the share price would be above £1.20 now if we tracked Enquest our nearest comparison in the North Sea. We are actually lower than where would be without the premium... in my view. It really feels as if this bid is going to fail in which case they will top the offer to £1.50 where they know they will get support. Or they walk away for now and we have to get rid of this board. I do not trust them working in our best interest
From Silverbaronable on Stockhouse “Strange- received letter dated April 4/17 from Les Thomas advising to accept the Delek offer. This is the first time I have ever recieved a letter from the CEO advising me to accept an offer - and I have had many stocks which have been bought out.” I hope Delek paid for the stamp. Londoner7
I suspect the push is on so that Delek have a clear view on the level of acceptance by smaller shareholders ahead of the deadline to support their discussions with principle shareholders. In the lead up to the 20th Delek will be gauging whether or not they will reach their 50% target. They will be in conversations with principal shareholders who I would expect are giving indicative acceptance well above the $1.95 offer. In the meantime Delek will be looking at the acceptance level of the smaller shareholders (who together make up a significant holding) responding to their broker deadlines typically between the 12th and the 18th, who in the main will not have got past the first page of Ithaca's circular or Ithaca's recommendation to accept. If Delek do not have 50% on or before the 20th April, what do you think their next actions will be? It’s my opinion Delek will raise the offer and extend the deadline. If you believe they might walk away then you should consider the consequences of that action. I saw a post on the iii board expressing the tactic to sell on the morning of the 20th in the belief that they get the best of possible outcomes, the current market price (albeit at a small discount to the offer), or a raised bid. If Delek go to the wire they will not announce a raised offer or withdrawal until 21st. So the logic of that tactic looks suspect to me. Bidders typically announce success at the earliest opportunity to encourage additional tenders. The closer it gets to the 20th without an announcement the more likely it is that Delek have not reached 50%. Consider how we got to $1.95. During the initial verbal discussions Delek said they "may be inclined to an offer of $1.70". In a non-binding letter the bid was $1.80. To secure the Ithaca board's recommendation and 2% shareholding Delek raised the bid by 15 cents to $1.95. If the Ithaca board spoke for say 20% they would probably have got more than 15 cents. But they only speak for 2% so Delek know they need to keep some powder back for the shareholders speaking for the 40% they need. Ignore the deadline and wait to see Delek response. Remember if or when Delek announce success at the higher bid the shareholders holding out will have the mandatory extension period (min 10 days) to subscribe to the tender at the higher price. If you subscribe by the deadline you strengthen Delek’s hand in the negotiations with principle shareholders. Londoner7
Desperate indeed! I'm holding, that's for sure now.
Agreed, desperate! That RNS will if anything solidify the remaining shareholders sentiment to hold out. Either it was a legal requirement or another miscalculation by the board, because I for one feel much more comfortable that we might see a more acceptable outcome.
This has the whiff of desperation attached to it , not to mention arrogance: not only do they believe they cannot rely on simpleton investors remembering a deadline date, but there is a discernible "nudge" towards telling us what is the best way to act, the directors know the best. Don't they? Unclear to me whether there is a legality issue in releasing such a skewed document at this stage of the tender process. I couldn't imagine The Tory high office releasing a communication on voting day telling the people having the right to vote which way to exercise their franchise. Standby for the inevitable raised bid.
Does there seem to be a touch of desperation? Maybe the deposited shares are well below the 50%?
Interesting to note that over the past 6 months Enquest which is the most obvious comparison to Ithaca, has performed better even with the bid premium. One could argue that without the bid, Ithaca would be trading at or above the current share price if it followed Enquest over this time. Not a perfect science but it could be the bid is holding the SP back and with recovering oil prices and production ramping up, we could be at £1.25+ now. So ironically we would be better off without the bid and that the bid is in effect giving a negative premium... But who knows as we were not allowed the opportunity of seeing the price response. If the bid fails, then we might not see a huge sell off - as long as the management don't try to justify the bad bid by being negative on the news - which they could.
More good stuff from Londoner: Ferret, thank you for your post. The Total bid sequence illustrates the operation of the mandatory extension. On the 9th December 2016 Total Energy initiated a hostile offer for Savanna with a minimum tender level of 66 2/3 % of common shares. The deadline for Total’s initial offer was the 24th March. The 105 days between the offer date and the closing deadline is in accordance with Canadian law, allowing the target company 105 days to defend against the bid – a hostile takeover. Canadian law allows a minimum 35 days where the bid has the support of the target’s board – this is the case in the Ithaca bid. On the 1st March Total increased their offer. On the 13th March Total waived the condition requiring 66 2/3% of shares to be tendered, falling back to the ‘statutory minimum condition”, namely 50% of outstanding shares not controlled by Total – Delek’s target requirement for Ithaca tenders. On 25th March, the day after the deadline, Total announced the take up of the 51.6% of shares tendered to the offer – a successful bid (just). (So united, small shareholders could make a difference in the Delek bid) Also on 25th March Total announced an extension to the tender until 7th April. This is the mandatory extension which allows all remaining shareholders to tender their shares. The news release Ferret links to is a warning to minority shareholders, dated 3rd April, advising them that the offer may not be extended beyond the new expiry date of 7th April. To be crystal clear, if Delek announce success in their bid on the 21st April, or possibly a later date if the bid is raised, then they will also announce an extension to tender of at least 10 days. There is no reason for shareholders to remain minority shareholders unless they want it. I don’t want to be a minority shareholder but I do want to maximise my investment in Ithaca so I will wait until Delek make an announcement on either raising their bid or on a successful tender response before I take any action. Londoner7 Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#O8S5P3tmDVjhqR3Y.99
Londoner 7 has posted this on another massage board but it is important and I hope he won't mind my posting it here: I vote, unite! If Delek succeed in this offer, at the current bid price or at a higher bid price, I do not wish to be a minority shareholder. However, I will ignore the initial deadline of the 20th and any earlier deadline set by my broker safe in the knowledge that if Delek succeed in their offer they are required to extend the offer period by a minimum of 10 days which allows me to tender my shares at the final bid price. Subsequent to the expiry of the initial date (20thApril) my broker (and yours) will notify me (you) of the revised deadline. This is the ‘mandatory extension’, to which impega and others have referred. Ithaca makes no reference to this extension in their circular because they are not required to do so. However, there are references to the ‘mandatory extension’ in Delek’s circular because that is the formal bid document and Delek are required to refer to all elements of the bid process, including extensions. Trust me, they wish they didn’t have to. Instead they go to great length to highlight the possible difficulties a minority share holder faces if they do not accept the ‘offer’ – note they do not say the current bid! (Put the Delek circular into an app like Acrobat which has a word search and search for ‘mandatory’.) I suspect it is the warnings to shareholders not taking up a successful offer and becoming minority shareholders, which is leading to confusion and fear on this board. The key part to understand is that the offer period would have to be extended beyond the 20th April if Delek is successful, or raise their bid. Some recent comments are misleading on this point. I am not accepting the initial bid because if Delek fail to achieve the required 50% I believe they will raise the bid price. If you are fearful that Delek fail in their offer and walk away without raising the bid I wonder why you do not sell in the market. As I’ve said before it is in my interest that weak shareholders sell into the hands of stronger shareholders. Some of the new buyers may be playing for a couple of cents but some will be holding out for a higher bid. Londoner7 Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#Q2K26yYpHgGrQGCj.99
I’ve noted some confusion on another board about the need for action before the 20th to avoid inadvertently becoming a minority shareholder in Ithaca. A poster provided a link to a Canadian bid, subject to the same rules as the Delek bid for Ithaca. It illustrates that inaction before the 20th is a safe option if the Delek bid succeeds. On the 9th December 2016 Total Energy initiated a hostile offer for Savanna with a minimum tender level of 66 2/3 % of common shares. The deadline for Total’s initial offer was the 24th March. The 105 days between the offer date and the closing deadline is in accordance with Canadian law, allowing the target company 105 days to defend against the bid – a hostile takeover. Canadian law allows a minimum 35 days where the bid has the support of the target’s board – this is the case in the Ithaca bid. On the 1st March Total increased their offer. On the 13th March Total waived the condition requiring 66 2/3% of shares to be tendered, falling back to the ‘statutory minimum condition”, namely 50% of outstanding shares not controlled by Total – Delek’s target requirement for Ithaca tenders. On 25th March, the day after the deadline, Total announced the take up of the 51.6% of shares tendered to the offer – a successful bid (just). (So united, small shareholders could make a difference in the Delek bid) Also on 25th March Total announced an extension to the tender until 7th April. This is the mandatory extension which allows all remaining shareholders to tender their shares. To be crystal clear, if Delek announce success in their bid on the 21st April, or possibly a later date if the bid is raised, then they will also announce an extension to tender of at least 10 days. There is no reason for shareholders to remain minority shareholders unless they want it. I don’t want to be a minority shareholder but I do want to maximise my investment in Ithaca so I will wait until Delek make an announcement on either raising their bid or on a successful tender response before I take any action. Londoner7
"the rebalancing is happening faster than many in the market believe." https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/crude-holds-gains-in-asia-after-sharp-draw-in-api-estimates-471482
A drain on British economy!! doesn't sound like a good investment to me!!
Has anyone got information as to how the funds(Artemis) etc; are leaning?
Who knows...but there is good reason to suggest oil prices will eventually move into the $70-$80 range when the massive under investment in the industry starts to come through in falling production outside US shale. With the recent increased price, the shale can switch on easily but only to a degree. It only ever accounted for 4-5% of global supply. 90% plus is from conventional projects that take years to plan and develop (like Stella!!). So we should see large draw down on inventory from the Opec cut and the lack on investment. Maybe we could see $100 oil in the not distant future - shale just can not make up the difference. With Stella on stream, PoO up into the £70's and some good deals to increase the portfolio, IAE could be easily in the £2+ range in 12 months. Actually, that would seem to the job of the management and not to be throwing in the towel (although they happen to be staying on for the excitement to come....). We need this distraction out of the way as it is holding us back - management should be refinancing the company and getting on with the next deal and have some ambition. So when this fails, we will need some new people driving the ship upwards and onwards. I have no faith in this lot - 2 years late and then they try to steal the company (they are buying it from us BTW). We need better quality technical and commercial people at the helm. There must be some options given previous management teams that have recently exited for one reason or other.
Oil prices are set to hit the $70 barrel mark later this year, according to Pierre Andurand, the managing partner at Andurand Capital Management that won 2017’s EMEA Investor’s Choice Award. The general consensus among energy experts, on the other hand, puts the Brent barrel at $55 by the end of the year, and at $60 in the next 2 to 3 years. "I think oil prices are likely to recover to around $70,” Andurand told CNBC. “I think the market will switch to backwardation – sustainable backwardation – by late summer and that will bring the next wave in oil prices.” The market phenomenon he referred to defines a pattern in commodity prices where short-term spot price oil contracts become more expensive than long-term forward contracts.
Hold just under 1,000,000 and won't be selling at this undervalued price.
I think there are very many of us who share your view.
I'm not parting with my shares at Delek's price !!
Post rec'd
By Angelina Rascouet (Bloomberg) -- Delek Group Ltd.’s proposed takeover of Ithaca Energy Inc. is facing increased opposition from shareholders, with an investor owning 1 percent of the oil explorer seeking a higher offer from the Israeli energy company. Peter Buchanan, who owns 1 percent of Ithaca shares, said he opposes the current terms of Delek’s offer. Buchanan is the former co-founder and chief executive officer of Valiant Petroleum Plc, which Ithaca bought in 2013. Delek on Feb. 6 offered to pay Ithaca shareholders C$1.95 a share, or 120 pence at the time. That represented a 16 percent premium to the 30-day average price. An offer of 150 pence a share would be a “sensible premium,” that Buchanan “would be happy with,” he said in an interview Friday. That’s in line with what Cavendish Asset Management Ltd. has voiced previously. Cavendish owns about 3 percent of Ithaca shares. Investors in Aberdeen, Scotland-based Ithaca have until April 20 to tender their stock. For the deal to go through, investors have to tender 50 percent of shares not already owned by Delek, which owned a stake of close to 20 percent before the deal was announced. Delek’s offer came 11 days before Ithaca announced the production start-up of its delayed Stella project in the U.K. North Sea. The timing of the offer, coming from an inside shareholder, was “wrong,” Buchanan said. “Surely you’d wait for the news to come out, for the market to digest it and to effectively come up with an undisturbed share price based on that news,” he said. Investors owning “well over” 10 percent of outstanding shares are set to refrain from tendering them, Buchanan said. “It’s an odd time to sell,” with oil prices rising to “more reasonable levels” and production at Stella on stream, he said. Ithaca declined to comment. Artemis Fund Managers -- the fifth-biggest holder with about 4.2 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg -- described Delek’s offer as “disappointing” at the time of the announcement but has since not said whether it would back the deal. BlackRock Inc. -- the fourth-biggest investor -- declined to comment. Invesco Ltd. -- the third-biggest investor -- didn’t immediately reply when asked to comment. “We continue to view the bid by Delek as a compelling offer at a 27 percent premium to our valuation of the portfolio based on a long-term Brent price of $70 a barrel,” James Hosie, analyst at Barclays Plc, said in a note on Friday. Brent, the global oil benchmark, was at $52.60 a barrel at 12:19 p.m. in London. The median forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg sees Brent reaching $70 a barrel from 2021. Although production at Stella started last month, the ramp- up in oil output and the start of gas exports has been de
does this mean anyone who buys in now or between now and the date don't have to do anything to - so to say - vote against it?
Thanks Keith - I'm holding tight. GLA
Gramp, by now shareholders have received by the offer with the circular of about 80 pages. You can find it on sedar.com or ithacaenergy.com (to the bottom, click "Investor Relations" and "Takeover offer"). It's an offer from Delek to buy your shares at $1.95 and you only answer if you want to sell. On april 20th, if Delek do not reach 50% of the other shareholders's shares, the offer is not valid. If they reach 50%+, the offer is valid and they have a mandatory 10 days minimum extension to the bid period where you could still decide to sell. One way or the other, the remaining shares will keep trading. Conditions for a delisting are extremely hard to be met. See the circular about it. My personal opinion from what I read...
Refer to page 46 for their update on Stella: 'prompt ramp-up of production is now anticipated' https://petrofac.com/media/3136/petrofac-_ar_2016-_web.pdf