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KeithR39, I believe you are right and my recent comment on this was wrong. Thinking about this again I think the reason it occured in the Savannah / Total bid was because Total had less than 20% prior to the offer Sorry for the error, Londoner7
Delek cannot buy anymore on the free market imo, they are already at 19.97% or so: "The formal “take-over bid” requirements are triggered when the securities subject to a bid combined with the securities owned by the bidder constitute 20% or more of the outstanding securities of any class. " http://www.mcmillan.ca/files/Overview_take-over_bids_in_Canada_c4.pdf http://www.ithacaenergy.com/investor-relations/shareholder-information
Markets work in mysterious ways - in the event Delek does not reach the desired take up then we could see either 1. The SP rockets on anticipation of an improved offer from Delek. 2. The SP falls back because Delek walks away for now. (thus would be surprising) Is this worth a punt today.... I might chance my luck.
thehickster, Ithaca is a Canadian company with a dual AIM listing. So I guess an offer in Canadian $$ was the only option. It makes the assessment of this deal and any trades tricky for us UK investors, but I guess few would be complaining if the FX had gone the other way. But I believe UK investors hold the majority of the shares so while the FX has the potential to work in Delek's favour, FX may also swing the outcome against Delek. We'll know soon enough. Londoner7
Long term holder here and I usually post on iii. Why on earth didn't Delek fix the Sterling price at the very least ? If you're going to offer peanuts for a company, at least have the decency to ensure that shareholders at least get your miserable offer.
OLI12, I generally agree with your assessment, except (by my calculation) at the current exchange rate the offer is almost exactly 113p, so the investor has lost 0.5p. However, they may have chosen to avoid the potential of further FX risk over the next few days. Whether their assessment to sell or not is correct will be revealed tomorrow. Deadline is 5pm Canadian today. Delek can't be certain of the tender result until the deadline because tenders can be retracted. So I wouldn't read to much into any dealings today in the UK. There may be clues in late trading on the Canadian market. As to your question. Based on my assessment of a similar Canadian deal between Savanna and Total I believe Delek do have the option to buy in the market but any purchase would not count towards the 50% of common shares not under the control of Delek. So it would be a tricky arithmetic call to make before the offer closes. That is my understanding. Londoner7
i dont think he means Delek selling - maybe investors selling as they beleive Delek will reach the required pledges which means at the current exchange rate we are slightly worse off than the current SP so solution SELL: IF Delek did not have enough pledges and they had to increase their offer then surely they would be BUYING stock today? (are they allowed to?...)
Why would Delek...who hold over 81M shares sell into the market 5.5 million shares......??When they are trying to take over IAE? 5.5 M is approx. 0.6% of shares issued.....I suspect that Delek will not get the required pledges ...so I think they will make an improved offer as they are pretty set on taking over IAE
5,511,710 shares SELL
seems so but still a buyer at the other end This is one of the main holders getting out as greater than 1% Probably thinks the deal will fail so price will fall and they can buy back in tomorrow
Big trade gone through - who would buy at today's price given it is the offer price and so there is no upside? Or am i missing something?
Then the delek offer is virtually at a discount to the previous closing sp prior to announcement. The question is, why would anyone sell at this price? Just because another co has made an offer does not mean we need to accept. Ludicrously undervalued given the strengthening pound. Roll on tomorrow to see if we get a revised offer and preferably in £'s this time.
1 CAD = 0.581779 GBP ↔British Pound 1 GBP = 1.71887 CAD
The bid price is still subject to FX movements but Delek’s offer is currently worth 114p. If you have tendered your shares in the expectation you will receive 119p you will be disappointed but you still have the opportunity to receive that price or higher by retracting your tender. Until the bid closes on Thursday evening you can ‘retract your tender’. You can email your broker at their corporate email address quoting your account number and the Delek/Ithaca corporate bid reference (on your broker’s letter), or easier still, phone them. Ithaca’s closing pre bid price was 108p. Delek’s offer is currently at a 5% premium. Don’t leave it to the primary shareholders improve on your investment –phone your broker. Delek are reliant on small shareholders to achieve their 50% target. If they fail to achieve the target by Thursday evening I believe they will raise the bid. The more small shareholders that retract their tenders the more Delek will need to raise their bid. They will announce the result on Friday – success or a revised offer. Since the offer we have first oil from Stella and judging by the tanker movements Stella production is ahead of expectations. I believe Delek will take control of Ithaca but I want them to pay more than the 5% premium they are offering. Londoner7
Does anyone know the balance of shares held in Canada as compared to those held in London? I always thought it was a bit strange that they made the offer in Can$. It's come back to bite them now. Given the extreme parsimony of their offer it's hard to think they won't come back offering a bit more. But they might, in which case I'm guessing the sp will be back in the 90s. A good buying opportunity, if it did come to pass.
With Harrier being drilled, production stabilising at Stella and PoO up in the $60's this SP will be £1.40 by year end at least. Comment form Citi:Citigroup Inc. joined Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in backing commodities, saying it’s the season to have faith in raw materials and oil will probably rally to the mid-$60s by the end of the year.
We are now on a 5% premium to the closing price before the bid. for those of us who have been holding through the past 2 years nail biting drama of delay and crashing oil price, this is somewhat insulting to say the least... This is the reward for supporting the BoD. And they will want a low price now to price their new share options they get to take the company forward and reap all the benefits!! Lets get this sorry state of affairs behind us with a new team and move on. The distraction this has caused is also doing damage as the team should be out chasing good deals etc.
What a balls up. Delek need to up the bid by 5% just to get it back to where they were when shareholders decided to reject it! You couldn't make this farce up. If the pound strengthens much more we will be giving the shares away.
Oiloandgas1 Exchange rate is currently £1.1426
So days to go to 20Apr (final voting day) .. current offer Can $ 1.95 = 1.16 GBP, the revised offer IMHO needs to be 2.15 Can$ minimum (1.28 GBP) but should be 2.35Can$ = 1.40 GBP + IMHO: fair value as of May/Jun17 is 1.40-1.50£. if shareholders hold out we will get at least one revised bid in the range of 1.28 -1.50£. A revised offer will come and the 10 day extension will be used for shareholders to accept. lets see if the revised bid is acceptable. The longer this goes on the more value IAE generates. With POO at 55$+, Stella oil flowing, new drills ENSCO 122 in progress and Norpipe due on line in less than 10 weeks resulting in a cost saving on of 5-7$ per barrel per day! Every barrel of oil from jun17 will be adding extra revenue: POO in 2017 q3 55 to 60 =5$ pb per day Norpipe in jun17= 5$ to 7$ pb per day So that is about at least $10pb x 22kbopd extra $6.6m revenue pcm for Delek/Iae on top of the $24.4m pcm ( 22kbopd x ($55-18) x30) .. a whopping 24.8% increase. IAE is a steal at the current (insulting) offer and the board have let their shareholders down by supporting this low ball bid.
So 2 weeks to go to 20Apr (final voting day) .. current offer Can $ 1.95 = 1.16 GBP, the revised offer IMHO needs to be 2.15 Can$ minimum (1.28 GBP) but could be up to 2.35Can$ = 1.40 GBP. A revised offer will come and the 10 day extension will be used for shareholders t accept. IAE easily worth 1.20 to 1.25 GBP now with POO at $54.75 and worth more when future value of op cost, norpipe, new drills, higher POO considered by end of Q2/early Jul17) IAE is a steal at the current (insulting) offer and the board are colluding and complicit in this low ball bid (having some (extra)verbal agreement in place more than likely post acquisition)
mm5333 on Stockhouse spotted that the Scott Spirit has been replaced by the Admunsen Spirit. mm5333, good spot and an interesting diversion from the bid. If the Scott Spirit is leaving close to full then by my maths there has been a significant, dare I say, huge ramp up in Stella production since the update 22 days ago, 58 days after first oil. Of course they may be another logistical reason for swapping out the tanker, but this doesn't point to any ongoing production problems. Londoner7
I do agree somewhat, but what im saying is that when the deal fails the board are still adequately capable of leading us in the interim until we can oust them. A lot of the delays were petrofacs responsibility so we cant really blame our bod too much. It has worked ok r.e. oil price recovering, but I get your point. Either way this is still a great company with huge potential in a great position and we should not lose sight of that. That is the reason im turning down the deal.
The technical team would stay. We just need new Chairman and CEO and NEDS. They have actually massively delayed the project so not sure it has been a great success. We are lucky that the oil price has gone up so its been the right answer for the wrong reason. Either way - you can not trust them as I do believe they have switched from portraying the company as a success throughout these past 2 years given the headwinds, to saying all the risk is in front and we need to jump ship.
Next agm or at soonest point though, Les Thomas needs to go