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I'm not invested here but posting an RNS at 8.02am, that is incredibly odd. A cynic might say it was for family and friends to be able to exit before the SP was taken down...
Glencore, Orion and La Mancha will be insiders (doing their due diligence) so cannot deal.
The Nickel price is down from 18k to 17k in two weeks, which makes any deal difficult at the moment. Hopefully, more stable in 2024.
I don't see the price moving much from 10p in the short term, there are many weeks before any news. I will wait weeks before buying.
Mv01 scenario 1 I think company ceases to exist, banks take the assets, Orion + La Mancha = 0p. I don't think it will happen. In other scenarios equity is worth 'something' but the market is betting something is a small number. I guess after the latest RNS 0p became a lot more probable than I thought was possible even a couple of weeks ago so that's the punt here now which way will it go. Impossible to say in a 'equity survives' scenario whether 10p is a good entry point because the financing landscape is now almost entirely uncertain....which is probably why long term holders such as pickedpeck sold up and didn't take the risk.
CleverThoughts - none of that inside talk please. It’s just my view but like everything, there are no guarantees … I’ve added to my position so it’s make or break….gl
"Plenty of value in these and Glencore, Orion and La Mancha will all be adding and stake building…"
Can you provide the source for that bold statement that Glencore, Orion and La Mancha are adding? You sound so confident, one would think you have an inside source who's confirmed it.
Folks, from where we are now. What are truly the possible outcomes.
Venture answers to the below please:
scenario1. Come mid Dec no further cash is available and all work has to stop - no finance deal [as that is now end 2024Q1].
what happens if all work is stopped? still a potential fire sale? and at what price considering, debt and assets to a stopped mine.
scenario2: Another RNS before mid Dec: saying there is a bit of saving, and cash can take us to end of Q1, where it is a anticipated that a finance agreement will be put in place.
2 variants here 2a. more work has stopped, 2b. same critical work is kept going.
what would you say this will do to stock price in scenarios 1,2a,2b; specifically on scenario 1, what are the thoughts on what this can sell for, and how much ending up to SP holders INCLUDING cornerstones. really 10p at best?
Lawrence joking aside it's a harsh lesson as I'm sure many have learnt investing before, and will learn again. Nothing specific to AIM, Horizonte, or this cycle, or anything, it's just never 100% given no matter what you think. Look at Lloyds in 2008 etc etc. My dodging the bullet was in effect diversifying into holding about 40% net wealth in Horizonte (down from 100%) after the initial funding but it hasn't worked out for me on many fronts - latterly I've been adding here as it looked closest to nailed on, so increased the position and also, everything I diversified into is on it's ar se also (and GRL is in a similar predicament to this albeit not on the same scale). So I could lose say 60% invested in the next couple of months if both go badly. Which sucks because it's a lot of money. Of all of them Horizonte did look the most solid, if a little less exciting after all the new shares were issued.
Hard to see the bright side. Weather here matches my mood - it's absolutely hoying it down. Never mind tomorrow is another day. GLA
Plenty of value in these and Glencore, Orion and La Mancha will all be adding and stake building…getting these at a huge discount to NAV. I agree that the board need a lesson in PR…back to 15p by close as these will be taken over…something better than nothing…
Next step in this - administration and perhaps an offer of 2p for existing shareholders. Heard here first - Seen it before - Then goes private and they make a killing.
The script is always the same
Indeed, a very frustrating state of affairs. It seems our debtors have us over a barrel now and its very difficult to see a positive outcome now for LTHs.
there's always hope we'll end off better than where were are now though, so the question is whether to hold on and see, or cut the losses here... At the moment i'm inclined to hang on
Glencore plc ("Glencore") announces that it has entered into a binding agreement with Teck Resources Limited ("Teck"), for the acquisition of a 77% effective interest in the entirety of Teck's steelmaking coal business, Elk Valley Resources ("EVR"), for US$6.93 bn in cash, on a cash free debt free basis, subject to a normalised level of working capital.
Glencore can do whatever they want, they have so much cash.
Teck dodged the bullet when they sold out their HZM holding.
Back to actual penny stock status. Sickening.
Insanely overdone. Look at the asset. Key shareholders already committed and funders have been met. Plan in motion.
You never know Wasa, you might still be able to double your money with a 20p buyout 🤷♀️
Looking on the bright side, I always hoped we'd get back to 10p. I was once offered a smidgeon under £100k to sell 1m shares at that price, when I had 26m to sell. Well here we are again. Shame about the 20:1 consolidation in the meantime! ;)
“The problem of course is the debt - they have first dibs on the sale value no doubt with penalty clauses. So in a sale my guess is the first $300m goes to the lenders and shareholders get what's left. “
No one is stumping up $300milliom to pay out the banks. The banks will be negotiating with potential partners who can assume the debt as it stands and take the project to completion without taking any haircut, while potential acquirers may want the banks to take some haircut.
The only hope for equity holders is that the cornerstone investors find it useful to keep HZM as a vehicle to maintain liquidity in their shares and avoid complicated change of ownerships processes, but I highly doubt this leaves anything of more than 5-10% of the enlarged share count for existing equity holders.
For me the only thing that can save is us is that Orion and La Mancha don't want a $0 return. That's it. I do see our fortunes to some extent tied to theirs so lets hope they do want something back for 140p price invested.
>>£200M are £0.74 per share
Yes but only if they pay that and take on the debt.
“I would assume min 20% of NPV or maybe approx £200M GBP.”
You’d assume wrong as any potential buyers are now negotiating with the creditors, not the equity holders - they hold all the cards and have no need to pay anything to equity.
Lawrence - I used to think even in a sale we would be ok because the NAV and what got sunk in already (which the buyer is effectively buying) must be worth a decent whack . They aren't just buying the Tier1 nickel in the ground asset they're buying a 70% complete mine with +$400m spent on it.
The problem of course is the debt - they have first dibs on the sale value no doubt with penalty clauses. So in a sale my guess is the first $300m goes to the lenders and shareholders get what's left.
It's a distressed sale so who knows. Maybe the smarter punters (no pun intended) were right and this goes to Glen for peanuts or something. I'm pretty jaded about it all tbh. It's a monumental ****up by the mgt team. If you can't develop it sell it so shareholders get something back.....
“Am I correct to think that its current MCAP is now below its cash value? thanks.”
No you are wrong as net cash is negative.
£200M are £0.74 per share
At todays Nickelprice the NPV is approx 1.3B USD - however project need now more cash lets give it 1.1B USD as NPV.
I would assume min 20% of NPV or maybe approx £200M GBP.
Net Asset Value per Share $1.07= £0.87p according to the last accounts 🤷♀️
Am I correct to think that its current MCAP is now below its cash value? thanks.
Just picking up values from LSE so not sure.