Member Info for mv01

"What’s Bj?"

House of Dragon,

Episode 3

Season 2.

You'd be in shock!!!

Any views why this is happening?

The only doubtful thing for me at this point is if this goes to admin, and the company stops to exist whether you lose all mining licences and what preparatory work has been put to it in that respect.

It's the only value left in the proposition.

The one assumption I am making here, which can be naive, is that if this goes to admin you lose it all and noone can sit for 2-3y to resume. You'd be looking at starting over with the brazilian authorities.

If this holds any water, then yes maybe some entity might be willing to come to purchase. I don't see them coming with a figure to cover former debt given that they know what is needed to complete this.

I further don't see the banks willing to get a nasty haircut and still the bidder leaving monies on the table for the shareholder.

Lastly I don't see the corners taking a bid just to pay off the banks.

So I think it will go to admin. The value of the mine is exactly zero, and they will sell the equipment for scrub.

Anyone interested in this in 2-3y would be with an outlook of first metal in 2032-2034 after regaining all licences.

Imagine the class suit if the BoD comes tomorrow, announcing a purchase deal of 500mm returning 30p to investors, if indeed fair is the play...

Of the back of that repeated resonating statement:

"The company does not believe there will be anything left for investors".

KRSS I don't know you mate, nor I want to pass judgement, but this is just being so much in denial mate. It won't sell at 30p. There is no such play.

So curtains.

I sold off fully at a dear 93% loss.

It's been quite the journey for me. Did for a change quite a few things right in the regard of going into something with a process, due diligence, and conviction.

Time to reflect, reassess and keep enjoying life.

I wish everyone all the best, and hold firm to your own due process and conviction.

Cheers All!

Mike.

Yeah fair enough, and for what is worth no NPV value alters what I was going to say in the event of existing corners being able and willing to put all monies needed for financing.

Unfortunately in this game, equilibrium is really oblivion. There's no incentive leaving a residue market of 10%. Just take all. Else you leave money on the table.

But the scenario demands all corners agreeing to put their fair share of the 600 to keep whatever desired %.

I am betting against that. That they do not want to put 600 to distress.

In all those games where partial subsidy occurs by existing corners, and not total, then we get those 15p-25p dependent on what assumptions you make for what each weak cornerstone can do.

Weak defined: a cornerstone not willing to pay total nominal percentage of current holding, against that 600m.

Rover how do you get that 750m NPV?

Has to be a function of opex. So cannot assume the same figure for both an equity raise of 600m v 300m.

NPV must be a variable in distinct scenarios not a constant - No?

You should know I have more invested in gold than in hzm. Honest.

I also love the medium. All britanias one ounce mints. Aboout 15 of them i accumulated over the years.

Got to love yellow.

I am a nice guy indeed. Hahaha.

Even if my wife thinks that half the time.

Again the whole narrative here, is like Dr Emmet Brown likes to say: you have to think 4 dimensionally.

Beautifully portraited by Christopher Lloyd.

My whole believe to a decent enough price, is that it WOULD ACTUALLY be done at prevailing price.

Who's stopping them releasing a series of RNS's mate?

Not just a single one?

Preparing for the big announcement.

What if come next week they come back and announce another 30mil of interim lending?

What would that do to the price? Last time this was done we saw 8p jump to 19.5p (even so momentarily)

But it did.

They have the pie and they have the knife.

They've seen the stock shift 99% down without pushing a single share.

I give it exactly 0% chance a raise will be sub 10p,

I'll even venture to say that I give it less than 50% it would actually be even less that 20p.

What I actually give is 99% chance admin,

1% chance over 20p, no other outcome.

Take me as literal for a sec, what price would you have given me if these are truly the odds? The only odds?

Rns's took the price there..

Rns's can bring it back...

I don't think it is for everyone to agree..

But i do think it is not that hard for anyone to see what i am saying here.

Chess,

I give it exactly 100% chance you will collect a profit (potentially bags of it) if (and it might be a HUGE HUGE HUGE if) a deal lands.

And this is my narrative at is heart.

This stock is terribly beaten. Yes there is a huge chance a deal will not happen.

However, on condition there is one [ and purely for arguments sake] i give it exactly 0% chance that the deal would be sub 4.5p - it is pointless to the interested parties, that are invested in the millions.

I don’t think they will chase a pyrrhic win.

I think they are here for the profit margins.

I don’t think they are here for the totalitarian ownership of the mine.

And all three are deterrents from a wipe out dilution.

Good luck to you.

Banks to write off :50mil

Leaves you have to issue 2.75 bil new shares at 20p.

Give 1.75 to new investor. 350mil. To get 55-60% of the mine.

Existing corners take the rest of the 1bil at par with their existing percentages to put 200m

They assume 35% of the mine (so diluted 50%)

We are left with 5%, so diluted 10x times.

This is really what I am thinking it will happen.

Its a big big big ask to expect each of the existing to put 60mil

You cannot ask a new to put 350 without giving 50% of the mine.

Banks might just be willing to write off 50m.

Is this fair? Well everybody loses.

And yes done at 20p. An mo you do jumps to 35-40.

In my view, if the banks through, say restructure, are willing to take a haircut, then I absolutely cannot see them giving any of the remaining 600m.

To me it makes no sense for them to keep lending.

So we might be faced with a scenario of 'find 550 new equity' to fund this all equity.

(Say 50m is written off from restructuring)

Such a huge figure to find : bad and bad and a bit of good.

You have to navigate this with a low enough price to attract external money.

As I don't expect the existing corners to refinance this with more than double of what they previously put in.

Hence a 4th player has to come in sight.

Well i did the math for myself and 1 and 2 p don't work.

Anything above 30p is unrealistically optimistic.

I am thinking it will be a figure 20-25p.

What chance i give it?

Well, but of course, 1%.

I think we should go with 3m as that what prevailing market implies at 1p.

So the cornerstones spend all this (whatever) time, with legal (or without) doing the paper work to shaft it for that 3m.

And all this time, they’ve seen all the 99% collapse without moving a single share. None of them!

So they hold all the (whatever) cards at the negotiating table to achieve just that…

1p, because market does not reward failure.

And who’s this market that knows everything?

The mm’s algo who runs the bid/ask every morning..

And the mikes, wasas, and what not little (or big for that matter) chats in here…

…who has to be a reflection sample of the 49% market base…

This is by no means intended as inflammatory.

You have your thesis, we have ours… it’s a free country…

Why it had to become personal i never got it…

Anyhow… good luck to us all.

On that wasa,

I would't offer 300 to take over if i were glen. To me a figure of 50-100m is more realistic because in this scenario you put LM and O at near par, and ask Glen to assume a near 1.2bil liability for 1£.

They might take 50p

They might take 30p if stretched to hard.

I don't see them taking 5p, 1p.

The fact that they sit in the BoD to me serves one good thing.

They are there to resist a free meal for glen:

Safeguard against a scenario of a prepack and allowing glen to get the whole thing without via admin.

You want this safeguard. If you go to admin, you have no mine on licences.

Getting this whilst HZM is in existence (no admin) has to be valuable and the big bargaining chip for the weak cornerstone in a game of weak strong existing cornerstones and any further potential buyers.

If this was not a chip, I think it could have be taken already by the apex.

On that low bid offer - point, a comment.

I've seen Bear Stearns and how in the day it went to JPM for effectively zero.

I was right in the middle of it when it happened as a grad recruit.

Just assumed liabilities.

Same kind of deal more recently with CS and UBS, pennies to the dollar.

Effectively just assumed liabilities again to no premium.

Here all this time, i've been betting against these types of scenarios based on a different idisyncracy:

You have 3 corners.

One being particularly big in assets relative to the mine on the one hand...

And

Putting LM and O people on the driver seats of the new BoD.

Also things here taking longer. Bear was flipped in 2m.

CS about the same.

The Horizonte saga is at least 5m+ old.

It does seem the constituent Corners to control the game of negotiations.

But you have to look at it objectively:

I am not doubting it here that this is a different game to a big bank collapse where total wipe out of the stock can occur.

Yet... to what end.

Fine we gotten April.

Then what?

GLA.

Woo thanks folks, especially Buddha for the thorough answer; well now give me the reverse angle:

Is a month now going to be enough to conclude?!

One Time it takes to...

This has been something that I was always curious about:

Why does it take long to negotiate/assess/opine/decide...

It's the naïveté again, but feels things should have been moving faster all this time.

Just a personal feel, don't know if any folks can offer a more professional view in case they found themselves in big corp negotiations.

So we got the RNS formalising interest deferral to April. Good as opposed to something negative published or no word published for that matter at all. Until April end then...

:) I believe absolutely nothing.

But here is what I am saying:

Even if there is some Clown out there, thinking that they can snap this with 300mil (half of what is needed) and they don't want to pay to get the full mine (as its liabilities are over a billion already)..

But for argument's sake they want as much as how that 300 will stretch it; very extravagantly I put it that the good samaritans the existing cs will be happy to give this at 80%...

Then the price tag for... ALL that is 25p a new share.

This is by no means, a prediction that tomorrow we will see an announcement of 25p placement.

It's merely an argument that 1p is impossible, and that we might as well just go to admin.

I am not giving anyone any advice.

I am openly stating it I am naive.

But the math cannot be this flawed.

Yes I bet the house it won't be 1p. Admin is many scales of magnitude more probable than 1p.

Thanks Rob. Acknowledging your input.

Cheers.