Member Info for mv01

No we can agree on another thing.

We so intimately rely on news, an RNS or multiple of those for that matter, as to what's going to happen specifically with HZM, to the point that everything else... ABSOLUTELY everything else is conjecture.

So until the fat lady sings, you cannot take ANY narrative as gospel. Nothing's been proven yet.

We will really be done, when we are done with a break or make RNS.

Stop the fighting FFS... theres more posts in this forum on most days, than there is... trades on the bloody thing.

Do not get offended by this... any of you folks!

Only do get such if you act like you know something... when noone does as to what's going to happen.

Cheers Spike.

Well on the latter I hope they don't exceed 12x.

That is my personal threshold for saving face.

I am merely trying to think, what might be a fair value to all cornerstones involved for say glen to but this off.

It wont be possible with 3p mate - that is stale-mate, noone agrees, it goes to admin.

I am trying to derive a 'fair price' given the circumstance if the alternative would have to involve a 200mil equity raise.

It's purely if I prefer the bid option and want to absolutely avoid the equity raise or admin option what might be a fair bid price.

None offence taken by the way :)

I do live in that land!

And it actually be 52p - sorry for the horrendous traffic.

4.5x dilution means you issue 3.5x more shares.

So if the nominal is 20 and the sentiment would come back at 28 as per my former calc, means LM and O recover 3.5x8

Plus

The 28-3 on their initial inv takes to 3.5x8 + 25 = 52.

Glen on the flip side may want to haircut to 80% for the risk they would assume to build.

So revising that 60p bid I mentioned before to 40p.

It actually may just work...

This should have read,

From:

They make a recovery to their initial investment but kill off the risk of having to build the mine.

Into:

They only make a partial recovery to their initial investment but kill off the risk of having to build the mine.

It's actually the equity part that saves me, not the minimal share price.

Thinking it some more, why would LM and O be willing here to put each 67mil here in this thought experiment?

Because they will hope to make 8p on their 20p and recover 28-3=25p on their initial investment.

So roughly 4.5x8 + 25= roughly 60p

If you tamper with the dilution rate (say push to higher) you'd find that you won't have too much residual market to boost the price from 20p nominal to 28 hence that final price 28 in the calc.

I am now thinking that there might be a sweet spot for glen to bid 60p per share to get this.

LM and O are not really interested, in my view, owning a mine, they want it afloat.

Glen are actually here for the offtake.

So if really effective 60p is what takes this back to pre bad RNS market cap (with all that dilution mechanism) I wonder if LM and O will be happy to take that on and be bought off. They make a recovery to their initial investment but kill off the risk of having to build the mine.

As for Glen they are, in my mind, primarily here for the offtake.

So maybe spending 175 to bid that 60p, assume the debt and finance the whole mine might seem a good deal to them as they will replace the offtake cost for opex.

I now really wonder if there might be a bid to delist around this 60p mark. LM and O might just be enticed.

8.35/0.031*1.40 = ~375million implied MC when I entered at 1.40£

MC today is at 8.35mil with an SP 0.031£

Let's naively assume we need to raise 350mil (as we have the loan facility of about 100 subject to servicing debt)

Let's further assume we can find 150 of that 350 out of loans (I know big ask but assume that)

Further let's assume the remaining needed monies will be done by an equity raise with new share issue at par with nominal value of share.

Let's further assume that if you do all of that market sentiment comes back and meets the implied MC value when I first bought this.

We will need to raise a ball park dilution multiple of 4.5x 1bil gets you the 200mil total shares go from 300m to 1300m

For the MC to get back to 375m implies a new share price of:

375/1300 = 28p

That is roughly what I realistically see the stock price recovering to, if a deal is stroke at these sort of levels and these sort of dilution multiples to get us back at par to the sentiment before the bad RNS's

It will be a miracle to get a deal

And the recovery isn't going to get you anywhere close to that entry.

This is it my calc on that thesis

By the way, this is now expressing my full thesis.

I entered HZM at a price 1.40 on the current open interest of shares, say that implied X as as MC for the stock.

What has changed since?

A bunch of negative RNS’s and the price crashing to 3p.

Now lets assume keeping all things equal, the full market sentiment would come back if miraculously someone came about and gave as a solution heres a deal for the extra 450m you need. Sentiment comes back at par.

So lets now say we gotten 100m in extra debt, say cost of service for LOM is 200m.

How much dilution can I incur with extra issue at 20p to replenish my MC all the way back to that value X?

Do the math. Its not a dilution multiple to oblivion.

Now why do I think theres any hope for the sentiment to come back?

There are signals for me:

Old bod left

New bod in place who actually finally gave me a cost figure without trying to beautify it.

If its raining out there they told me its pouring, so trust is coming back for me for the hard truth.

The 20mil influx 5mil aside at par to me shown some unity.

I said it a few times already, one mans signal is another mans noice as us physicists like to say.

I picked mine, whilst each of you are picking yours, but noone should act here like we know nothing.

We depend 100.0000000000% on what news we get.

To that level of significant figure accuracy.

The billion dollar questions:

Will there be a deal?

If yes, what is it?

But don’t talk bs on dilution to oblivion!

With all cylinders running and we are on track, price was 1.40. Bring that sentiment back with honesty, so do the math… what is the dilution rate to raise the equity at par with the face value of the share?

That is indeed fully my personal thesis.

Neil,

Let me talk hypos again.

Say a deal is agreed on principle. 50-50 debt equity.

The debt now say is conditional on equity.

Say as company you want to release the news in tranches.

Rns1: you go and say we secured a deal on x mil on debt, subject to an equity raise of y, and restructured the former lot and will cost w in total.

Until rns2 when you actually release details of equity raise, what does that do to your sp?

Do the MC historical value, between sp 9.5 the announcement of the 20mil, and price action hitting momentarily 19p for the sp.

Seriously who is stopping them to announce the debt deal conditional on the equity deal to be announced a few weeks later, if they were bogged on the actual MC figure?

Even if today someone annoynced:

150m debt, 20p a share of new 1bil issue, mine builds. What does that do to sp?

I bet it will start trading at about 20p.

But still that mc number will mean nothing

In short,

We do not yet know whether there will be a finance agreement, and if so what it would be.

The fat lady hasn't sung yet,

And all the rest of it is mere conjecture.

Market cap right now is no variable to the proposition.

Hi Neil777,

Following from my previous post, as I wasn't trying to be rude in the slightest, but was rather trying to be emphatic here is where I want to challenge the money demands with market cap.

Market cap is purely driven by market dynamics. We are dealing with a small cap, trading on thin volume, and by large the 90%+ daily volume of those trades do not even exceed 1000£.

The money demands are based on fundamentals and idiosyncrasy of the enterprise here and the extended commod market in nickel.

People saying mines now cost north of 1bil to build.

Analyses on outlook of nickel, how this particular enterprise relates to that market, with its good and indeed its super very bad.

My personal prejudice:

This stock will not actually trade on its price action. It would rather trade on its news.

And my question therefore dismissal:

Why should I relate what glen, LM or O would want here to do by looking at the market cap right now?

In my view they would just see the raw facts directly relating to them and their biz model.

Glen want the produce.

LM are not in the trade of owning mines, they prefer this to indeed float on a traded market.

What would they be looking at now? Market cap really?

Let's purely for arguments sake they all sit together and agree to the following:

Let's bring in another 3 banks if we can to give 50m each. Then we test the market by saying to them:

We have already a binding conditional agreement to 150m debt with some terms disclosed,

And then they said something of the sort:

We hope to raise the rest of the 200m by an equity raise with 1bil new shares. Details of which will be announced in another rns within 2w.

For instance all 3 cornerstones inderwriting that 1bil shares but the participation offered first to ever current holder.

And then they also put a statement to this rns that this will secure the 350 and liberate the access to the outstanding loan facility for the rest 100.

So now I ask, such a stellar, hypothetical rns, what would it do to the sp? What would it do to the market cap?

I m not saying this is what might happen, and I am not giving any chance prediction here.

But all I am trying to ascertain here is that market cap here is not a variable. Only the RNS are at this point and the market cap will be a derivative of that.

Yeah, they might. If I gotten anything from Wasa, who I totally respect here, is that open interest market cap mean nothing in volatile times.

Here's an analogy for all of you.

I have a 12y old fiat 500.

Worth on the online market 2k

I have 1k debt in it.

A busted airbags module. Issue ironically came with the latest hzm rns.

Mechanic and electrician and specialist are giving me a quota of 800 to fix the whole thing, and they give me all sorts of risks - module for instance may not be reparable. So what do I do?

Utility:

I need the fiat, new used is 5k plus.

Moral?

Fxxk the market cap!

How much does it cost to build now a tier one nickel mine?

What do you do with a half built one? Who's revised capex is exactly a billion?

Yeah, fxxk the market cap and what all fools and clowns and told you so and experts are now as a collective price this company to be worth!

One mans signal is another mans noice - as us physicists like to say.

I loaded up.

Have now 1.2m shares.

Cheers.

Mike.

You have to also respect that if this is a pure probabilistic proposition, black swans are not that uncommon. Probabilities are not governed by normal distributions, they are governed by power laws.

I insist: if one thought was recoverable at 250mil, that this probability is not now halved just because you need 500mil.

Yet the price dropped to 1/3.

It's a perfect call to them to spend 20k!

Their relative risk taking has not increased is my point, it actually reduced!

Yes you can call them gamblers if you like for expressing a bullish market move to begin with.

But my point is if you grant them that to begin with, you cannot call them gamblers now for spending 20k at 3p - the math actually says they are taking a lesser weighted risk according to their market view.

Anyhow, it's a subtle point.

Call someone a fool for being bullish is alright-

But not because they might be loading some more now, on balance they actually might be derisking..

I think it's simpler folks.

Take an average person who was bullish to begin with. If that person were thinking there is a good chance of many bags here even if 250mil were needed for this to be financed, and kept being bullish...

Then by how much is that probability shifting if the amount needed is double?

Some may think the risk grows logarithmically.

So with double the amount needed, the sp went to a 1/3.

Why is it so weird to you that they may still be bullish and averaging down? It is I think very much within human nature this.

I am not saying this is actually why some would buy now, but it certainly does not surprise me.

Personally I have been very bullish as i was thinking a figure of 250-300, I am off by 100% if you factor the last borrowing facility should finance been put in place.

But what is worrying me the most is the significant timeframe extension.

Sure people can fit a positive or negative narrative to any possible twist. By power of analogy, surely the violin sounded nicely when the titanic was sinking.

The hard facts here are 2:

Finally we know an actual figure, albeit how exact this may be.

The figure came larger to what most of us, I would gamble, was expecting.

Nothing else is but conjecture.

So let's see how the market will now react.

Here's me saying I still remain as bullish as hell. But Folks, you can't quite pick a signal from the activity today just yet...

I mean that's 40 trades, averaging 1k GBP with the biggest not maxing 5k.

Come on, we can't quite call this a signal... it is uber thin...

That 104,175 trade is a buy.

I don't know why it was shown as a sell.

Yeah I bought the dust hazard news.

I don't downplay Billy. But I don't believe him.

:)

I wish I could, as I am bullish as hell.

But I don't.

It's of little essence though...

Until the next proper factual RNS...

It better be good..

I sure believe it would..

But that's not currently fact.. just my hope.

Factual as to the fact that there is a trade of 2m.

Why do you panic and show this reflexes I don't get it.

Now as to whether or not that they are sells I do not know, but was just commenting that I thought they were sales (showing as grey and deferred on LSE) and if indeed they were such, I was just commenting it cannot be a good sign if they were sales.

Further the factuality here, is that these were true 2m share transactions, thats not what I commented and not the rest of the BS we heard today about wine and gravy..

Just don't panic please, bursted noone's bubble here..

Personally I think they are sales.

And this is not a good sign if indeed... sales.

This is what's factual, not all the rest of comedy of todays...