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AK,
Thanks for your very detailed answers and questions too of the Water on the Brain Conudrum. For me I must admit I thought of bailing out today, but when recalculated what my new average SP would be I thought F---k it, if I have to wait a year or 2 so be it.
What I will now be looking for from HUR is a revaluation of strategy perhaps on going forward into 2020. I would like to think if at all possible HUR might bring forward further new drills on Lancaster plus of course plans for a 2nd FPSO to maybe late 2020?
adoubleuk, I may be wrong, and no doubt it is caused my a lack of clarity in the point I was attempting to put across, but let me clarify if you will.
The point that I was inadequately attempting to get across was, just because you have a dimmer switch (VSD) making sure that is operable doesn’t mean that you want to turn the bulb (ESP) on, it merely means that you are checking that the control function (dimmer switch/VSD) will function in the way that it is intended for whenever you do want to illuminate in a variable manner the bulb at a later date, if and when, at your point of choosing, that you feel there is a need to do so.
Perhaps my latter post on the subject, once I had realised what the rumour was, may further clarify why there may be no cause for concern if the rumour does have any credence.
Just because a control system is being commissioned it is not necessarily a precursor to the item which it is designed to control being deployed, being done so in direct continuation of the commissioning aspect.
i.e. Just because a cruise missile control system is commissioned it is not a sign that the missile is to be imminently launched, it is merely a function check.
I think we are in agreement on the crux of the issue, that being that merely because the VSD is to be commissioned that does not necessarily mean that the ESP’s are to be immediately utilised.
Though I am in agreement that there may be occasion to do so at certain times whenever they want to perhaps induce a response from the reservoir (i.e. induce a level of draw down that natural flow cannot give them, to see what effect that has within the reservoir, or to magnify any effect that may be witnessed at distant wells with gauges deployed so as to identify any connectivity), or as you likely correctly identified, to maintain the current production from both wells when one may be temporarily down for maintenance (be that line pigging, or any other flow assurance maintenance/investigation that may be felt necessary).
But yes, sometimes I can appear to go off on a tangent, but generally speaking it is merely a case of me not being able to get my point across in a coherent manner.
HH,
"Surely that’s like using a dimmer switch on a light, when there isn’t a bulb fitted, as that would be futile."
I'd draw a different analogy.
And then I didn't post that analogy, but wrote technical stuff, instead!
Stupid me.
Here goes.
You've bought a luxury house in Laurel Canyon, or somewhere like that. In the summertime. Fully equipped. But it being summertime, you sip your pina coladas outside in the sun, then turn in for bed, just using the usual light-switches, which are separate from the state-of-the-art dimmer system you can control from your smartphone.
Now, later, it's winter. You are having some parties, and realise you haven't even used the dimmers to enhance the 'mood'. You hit your smartphone, but somehow the app hasn't been installed, or the thingy which connects you to the dimmer function hasn't been switched on.
So you call the people who did the installation to come and walk you through the entire procedure, and at the same time check it's all working OK. Even if during the next party you forget all about the dimmer function, because the ambient lighting's fine, already....
HH,
Writing at the same time! You on nightshift?
HH,
"I think we are in agreement on the crux of the issue, that being that merely because the VSD is to be commissioned that does not necessarily mean that the ESP’s are to be immediately utilised."
Not just writing at the same time, but I think we're reading off the same page.
adoubleuk, no, not night shift, I’m semi retired, in so much as I would only return to the fray if there was a project that really piqued my interest, and I felt that the challenge was sufficiently interesting to me.
For further clarification of my last post, when I said “doesn’t mean that you want to turn the bulb (ESP) on”, I meant for operational/production reasons, it was a given that you would require to “turn it on” as part of the commissioning task, so as to ensure functionality, but upon successful commissioning you could then return the ESP’s to their dormant state.
HH.
" upon successful commissioning you could then return the ESP’s to their dormant state"
Yes.
On which thought, off to bed....
For those who couldn’t afford a packet aspros at 30p box then I’m sure the government can help them. For the needy again help as it’s been for many years in the UK.
I’m all for the NHS but let’s keep it sane and sensible.
Taxation I pay more in my part of the UK than the rest so I support same taxation throughout the UK and the lower the better as I have a family to feed, shoe and educate through uni.
https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2015/10/22/9592460/college-tuition-free-scotland
Probably cost me about 10k per year to keep my daughter with a roof over head etc whilst she is at uni in Scotland
That's a bit disingenuous. The correct answer is that your daughter doesn't pay tuition fees at uni in Scotland. Regarding your remark that you pay highe vtax, that is actually not true. Higher income tax maybe, but only if you are a high earner, and for that you get free prescriptions, uni, hospital parking, personal care, shall I go on? Overall you are probably better off here.
Yes free tuition and I take it for my daughter but still cost me around 10k to keep her at uni per year
As I stated previously I think the NHS is a good thing along with the welfare state. Helped my mother a lot and I do believe free simple drugs / things on the NHS can stop the more expensive treatments that many people require that’s my take on it.
If I am a high earner it’s only because I pulled myself up by the bootstraps.
Interesting day today in the UK
Let’s hope HUR start to rise.
DiveCentre,
Re other sources one needs to keep an eye on OGA numbers, partner & contractor press releases, ship movements, and academic papers & presentations. Plus of course absolutely everything that HUR put out which is of course not just RNS's. And the tame house brokers occasionally give an insight by the direction of the padding they wrap around the core data. Plus of course BB rumours which may or may not be true, and may or may not be relevant. It is just like any other intelligence plot - all the data needs to be collected, assessed, and placed in position for verification (or rejection). As one does this one also develops the analysis. To do this well requires an understanding of the possibilities inherent in any given piece of data and its significance in the overall plot. Some people have deep knowledge in one area (kudos to them) but lesser knowledge in other areas (and they don't always recognise their limitations). Ideally it is a team endeavour, so we all balance out, that's called the market. However in this arena one also has to remember that there are people who are either deliberately or mistakenly seeding misinformation and/or muddying the waters. We all do our best.
regards, dspp
I've been too bust to post today but scanned posts and felt DSPP's post merited some comment
2. If you have a problem with the data I have used then please contact HUR and the OGA as they are responsible for data quality matters.
**No issue with data, just the conclusion.
4. If you have a problem with the four hypotheses I posted (of which the last is "something I cannot think of") then please post carefully and thoughtfully here, or better still on TLF. When doing so don't worry about minor issues, concentrate on the big stuff. So far no-one has figured out an alternative hypothesis.
**I gave an alternative hypothesis that you discounted even though the wording of the RNS lends weight to the theory that the wells have been shut in for individual testing and if true supports 8% WC from 7z (assuming that's the one on production) with 6 shut in.
7. That information (rumour) about ESP VSD commissioning is also relevant. One brings ESPs on line to increase drawdown. Why does one seek to increase drawdown ?
**this is a red herring in my opinion and I subscribe to the 'being tested' argument rather than them being needed to increase drawdown
WW
wellwell
4. If you have a problem with the four hypotheses I posted (of which the last is "something I cannot think of") then please post carefully and thoughtfully here, or better still on TLF. When doing so don't worry about minor issues, concentrate on the big stuff. So far no-one has figured out an alternative hypothesis.
**I gave an alternative hypothesis that you discounted even though the wording of the RNS lends weight to the theory that the wells have been shut in for individual testing and if true supports 8% WC from 7z (assuming that's the one on production) with 6 shut in.
= not discounted, it is in fact hypothesis #3. However as I have pointed out it would need to be in a very particular sequence to obtain that result.
= so you don't have any other hypotheses ?
7. That information (rumour) about ESP VSD commissioning is also relevant. One brings ESPs on line to increase drawdown. Why does one seek to increase drawdown ?
**this is a red herring in my opinion and I subscribe to the 'being tested' argument rather than them being needed to increase drawdown
= I hope so too (i.e. either "false rumour" or "finally being tested and commissioned due to POB constraints in previous months"). There are other possibilities, but I definitely am not hoping for them, however I am watching very carefully.
dspp
dspp
2) i don't have a problem with your data. My only issue is that the water figure you have used and gone on about repeatedly was released by hur already and they said it was better than they expected. They have also gone to great lengths to explain that it is not affecting production. which is backed up with the offloads we have had. According to hur there is no problem so why are you going on about it? at best you are muddying the water (so to speak) mistakenly in my view
4) your hypotheses are just that
5) you are long...have you bought any in the drop?..no don't answer that as we have no way of knowing.
9) disagree. it has been a perfect storm. people sell up at xmas for a variety of reasons. we have a general election which is also causing fear. Market was already spooked with ECO and I3E. i suspect as usual on AIM people sold on "news" especially sold on bad drill result. There were a couple of notifiable shorts opened immediately prior to RNS. negative rumours also spooked some - some have admitted on here. water % being one
so i think a lot of PIs have sold = price drop
10) there are several possibilities why HUR are releasing news in december, including
a) it has been 6 months and that is a very reasonable time frame to give an update. especially as that was the figure of min time needed for data collection.
b) they look to be wanting to improve communication
etc etc
I’ve not had the time to dig back to your original post however you did say if I recall correctly, and I’m paraphrasing, that you consider that option to be unlikely.
In my opinion it’s the most likely. I am of the view the wet well only could easily be on production for long periods. This is what the company guided did it not as part of the data gathering, as opposed to switching wells on and off frequently in some sort of “sequence” or at least that’s how I interpreted it.
Hi wellwell,
…"the wet well only could easily be on production for long periods...."
Looking at it simplistically, if you're in a project where water cut/water ingress etc are 'unknown unknowns' , if you have one well without issue and one well potentially with an issue, it would make sense to gather more data on the potential 'problem well', would it not ?
Occam's razor ?
BTW, If the water is indeed 'perched' ie trapped, would you not expect the trap to eventually drain......and the water cut then drop ?
ATB
Yes but gradually and possibly negligible
There are a lot of people struggling with uncertainty here. IMHO DSPP has offered multiple interpretations of OGA figures- some good, some bad. Those that criticise this are pretty blinkered, it’s always best to consider all possibilities. If you’re confident in your assessment then now would be the time to add.
The company guidance that people quote can be read in a number of ways. From the interims in Sep:
We have gone to great lengths to explain why we do not expect to see coned aquifer water during the lifetime of the EPS, under our base case. This is our continuing expectation. The perched, or stranded, water we have experienced is consistent with our reservoir model and since our capital markets day presentation this interpretation has been reinforced by the Company's technical work. Notwithstanding the increase in aggregate perched water production to a sustained rate of approximately 7.5%, water cut remains within expected ranges and is not impacting oil production levels or the cost of production.
They quote the base case, but don’t actually state that the data supports this. I’m confident that they’ll focus on this at the CMD as they know it’s the key question following WD. As for water cut, the way they phrase it as an aggregate and an increase makes it clear to my mind that both wells together average out at 7.5%. That means either both are wet, or the wet well is significantly wetter.
I know plenty will disagree with me. That’s fine. Unlike some, I recognise that nothing is certain here!
GLA
'There are a lot of people struggling with uncertainty here. IMHO DSPP has offered multiple interpretations of OGA figures- some good, some bad. Those that criticise this are pretty blinkered...'
I would prefer being 'blinkered' to reading DSPP's nonsense, with three of his 11 points beginning with 'If you have a problem with...'
The problem is people like DSPP writing drivel here.
He is welcome to publish it on Lemon Fool.
"... If the water is indeed 'perched' ie trapped, would you not expect the trap to eventually drain......and the water cut then drop ?..."
yep, that's exactly what i'd do. (Systems engineer, not reservoir engineer!) I'll also guess that, as WWN hints, forthcoming info may wel go into some detail on (i) 6 & 7z PI, (ii) 7z water-cut, (iii) chem anal regarding water source. Lincoln/Warwick chem/spectro - not yet, probably.
GLA
WWN,
"The perched, or stranded, water we have experienced is consistent with our reservoir model... " (HUR)
"They quote the base case, but don’t actually state that the data supports this. " (WhichWayNow)
So what the hell does THIS mean?
"...this interpretation has been reinforced by the Company's technical work." (HUR)
?????????????????????????????????????????????????
whichwaynow - the issue is as you just quoted the company have gone to great lengths to explain the water and how it is not afffecting production. this is based on the figures they supplied which he is using for his scattergraph.
he has come up with some hypotheses based on something that is not an issue. he has scared people into sellling and losing money.
i don't know if there is intent behind it - but it cetainly is open to criticsm.
so DSPP you said
"3. A fiendishly cunning management of the respective flow ratios, and total flows, from both wells, by calendar month, so as to needlessly scare the pants off any investor analysing OGA in-arrears data. I find this implausible."
My suggestion is that they were not flowing both wells. =Hypothesis 4.
I said "