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@Jwill, as you say.. September..
Drill crew have gone home for now, Audit said to recommence mid-august, so maybe completed before September, Rig Mob by end of Sept early October.. Would hope Pads start being constructed during months mobilisation unless the matting is part of the rigs extras but I expect the ground has to be prepared even for matts
just had a look at the volumes on 5 mins candle chart.
- buys at market open the sells dominate until now. why?
i thought its not bad of an RNS. at least we know now where things are and what they are doing / planning to do next.
@dia2belts
Maybe you can ask DM to put some chrome wheels on the rig to please you and Muscles.
Onwards and upwards.
What’s you point art… that suggests we are 6 weeks away all been well. That takes us to mid September, positive no?
That one month mobilization probably includes sorting out things like documentation for moving through countries, and hiring mad max style road warriors for protection, not just journey time..
Spare bananas, for those that remember ;)
More posters who are living in dreamland with their very own rose-tinted glasses. Read the RNS today. It clearly says in black and white in common English:
"Planning for rig transport logistics from Kenya to Rukwa is well advanced and is expected to take approximately one month from acceptance and contracting of the Rig and equipment. Drill pad construction has been planned utilising a matting system to reduce time and cost associated with project civils."
According to HE1 management it will take approximately one month - though going by experience of HE1 management timelines it is likely to take longer - maybe 6 weeks.
From Nairobi it’s around 24 hours so yes would expect a few days if trucked. To be honest thats calmed my fears a tad.
Wyndrum - ' bridges to cross' and 'nothing is certain' what are you talking about ???? obstacles and certainty have no corelation !
@Kevkev, maybe only reverse gear engages or an opportunity to get ahead of estimated timelines to stop us complaining ;)
I know nowt about drilling or rigs, but the layman's read of this is that we are 80% through restoring an old classic rather than buying a new and reliable model.
I do have some experience of restoring classics and if not done well, it's a false economy if your aim is to have something to get you from A to B!
All a bit strange.
Also, some have said a month or so to transport it? They going to roll it along the floor? Surely a few days drive tops
Magoo, "Nothing in this world is certain...." followed by "we may have a few more bridges to cross on the way, of which we will overcome" so nothing is certain but you are forecasting obstacles will be overcome. "Will be" being somewhat definitive and also somewhat contradictory?
@Gogs, No real detail included, we dont know the lead times on the items being redressed, or the items, we just have to trust Mid August to restart, well Late MId August...So far delays have been longer than said, but not greatly..
Well that depends on your expectation, I am still waiting on Febs MOU ;)
He1 said there was a closure of interest adjacent to Tai, so I expect we are drilling else where within the Tai prospect..
I am hoping they announce more than 1 drill for phase 2 , especially if that first closure is small(bcf), at least 1 this year rest next..
Will have to read up on mats, advantage is probably a longer lead time than gravel ;)
Nothing in this world is certain however if I had the mental disposition of some of you out there I'd have slit my wrists years ago - the RNS is informative it explains exactly where we are, my take on it - we are going to drill, we may have a few more bridges to cross on the way, of which we will overcome - see you on the drill pad and the end of September
@Xviolet.. Update leaves itself open
We dont know if 20% failed, or if we got 80% through and testing had to stop because of a single failure..
Incomplete list of major components observed in operation?
curator
yes. if the sp was 10p plus i'd be more cautious about jumping in.
but sup 8p feels fair. and the RNS has just shifted the odds.
Predictable that certain posters here spin a positive update as negative. If you really believe that management are incompetent crooks (it is illegal to make false public statements), then you would not be holding these shares, unless you have several screws loose. I can therefore conclude that you either and/or your employers have short positions that you want to close, or are looking for a lower entry price.
This RNS and the previous video release have been issued specifically to allay investor concerns. No sane management would destroy their career and financial futures by putting out information that is untrue. This is what I see happening;
* by end August, audit complete, drill rig contract signed.
* September - drill mobilised to Tai
* late September / early October - Tai-3 drilled with discovery declared
* October / November - capital raise to enable a further drill before early rains that may be delayed this year until late November, and maybe further drilling during the short dry season early nest year
* The current CPR of 138Bn ft³ will be revised to take into account of 8%+ He concentration, as opposed to the 4.4% used in the current CPR, and to include the new reservoirs identified north of Tai & Itumbula. Some of the resulting new estimates (likely to be 300-500 Bn ft³) will be moved to Contingent Resources or Reserves, enabling Reserved-Based Lending.
* Loan from RBL will be used to start production from Tai (although the gear could possibly be leased) and to roll out further seismic work & drilling
* HE1 easily has potential market cap of £1-2 Bn within 12-24 months.
Or alternatively, the management could be incompetent crooks running a 'lifestyle company'. Make your choice. I have.
that's DM depegged and out with the RNS. key points :
- rig market is tight therefore contributed to the delay in selection, this was highlighted by a poster here before re rig market
- electrical comms issue to fix and test, required. other minor fixes needed too. all non critical but might take time
- 20% left of audit to be completed. lets see if they find more cr4p in the bonnet.
- rig has been idle for awhile, again to stress, need a proper shakedown before ops else we will have issues during drill
- tier 1 services company - can only be SLB, HAL or BHI. everyone else is tier 3. hopefully its the men in blue.
its an RNS explaining the delay, issues, and plan forward. not a drilling confirmatory RNS. sp impact will be tempered accordingly
sdg1970
Take muscles with you.
Onwards and upwards
@legalwolf
FFS how many times do l to repeat myself,
there’s no rainy season, it’s gonna stay dry,
til sometime next year; hence, no worries,
Santa could be drilling at Christmas.
ITV - Most have been worried about the RIG,
now that’s confirmed, oh, let’s worry
about something else then; why can’t
we all be positive, leave the negativity
to the derampers, it’s what they get paid for
don’t deprive the f……………. of their income.
@ART123
Thankyou for stating the obvious regarding drilling this year.
Onwards and upwards.
If all goes well, should see spud end of September. Hell, I'll drive the feckin truck...
Dai - you took the words right out my mouth
"
Why was that RNS hard work,
"Completion of the audit was delayed"
"Final audit activities expected to re-commence mid-August"
No mention of pipe skate?
No mention of BOP and Koomey?
Failed then, take two August..
Working with "preferred" that kind of sounds like they may need another option, bit like Febs MOU
What happened to clear English. "
A couple of puzzling points in the RNS for me:-
Why have a couple of weeks off at the beginning of August doing the Audit, when weather window could be a time pressure?
Taken 10 weeks to get 80% of Audit done, so how long to do the final work and checks , and then test. Taking this years progress as an indicator, i'd say it could be another 6 weeks after mid-August before the rig is ready to sign off.
Ground mats instead of stone base - sounds like the Tai Pad is either not in place anymore, or they are using pads to extend it. Or if not going to Tai, are banking on the ground mats to lay a new site, which could possibly be moved on to a second location if the first is a duster or inconclusive?
Need some Va Va Voom David!
8 posts - not 10+ - and this is number 9 and hopefully my last for a while.
I will believe that this drill is going to happen this year when we get informed that HE1 have signed a drill contract and are given specific dates - and not before.
"ADC rig audit 80% complete - key components have been tested and operated successfully with no unrecoverable critical faults identified to date"
The last couple of days some posters were saying 'Oh well no drill this year'. Well that 80% is a bigger number than 'no drill'. Thats where we are today. You can take the sudden infestation of de-rampers as an indication that its reasonably positive news. Or just go and enjoy your breakfast. I'm quite pleased with that 80%.
@Art123
Everything you've said this morning in all of your 10+ posts on this board are totally twisting the truth and your playing with words to give a negative feel to this morning's RNS.
Not sure of your reasons as you haven't posted on this board for a while.
Onwards and upwards.