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Innovent results are tomorrow….it carries a higher MV and has a larger pipeline but makes larger losses. The company strategies seem to be similar and they are at a similar position of moving towards sustainable profitability. It will be interesting to see how the results are assessed in the market..
I think we know the answer is four letters…….CKHH…..
The assets and the pipeline can be evaluated and a number suggested for a deal, but unless it is a very large number (2.5-3x current) I doubt CKHH would entertain it.
It will be interesting to compare the assets/ pipeline/ number of scientific staff/ ongoing clinical studies of various drug candidates/ research and production facilities of HCM and the two companies that have been taken over.
What might the reasons for HCM not being (at least, until now) considered for takeover? Is it the “Grand” market value of 3 billion USD/ the pipeline unattractive??
..from a company that HCM is currently partners with, who have expressed a strong commitment to China, building out new offices and R & D facilities, not to mention oncology portfolio.
Two deals in one month..
Astra seems to be buying the Company when it wants the lead product…….it has to be that way in rare diseases, and I expect as the treatments extend out into rarer cancer treatments.
The deal with HCM is from a different time in AZ’s history. I suspect that if Savo was being offered up today, they would try to take the whole company.
I see HCMs future being a larger China entity and its drugs licensed for use where it is politically difficult for China based organisations to operate. AZ / Lilly etc may need to split their assets into China / non-China (perhaps US/ RoW) entities at some point with cross licensing arrangements if it becomes operationally difficult to be a player in US and China markets.
The deal is AstraZeneca’s second this month after it agreed last week to buy Amolyt Pharma for $1.05 billion to shore up its rare disease portfolio.
The drugmaker will pay $21 per Fusion share, a premium of more than 97% to the U.S.-listed company’s closing price on Monday.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/19/astrazeneca-bets-on-new-cancer-treatments-with-2-billion-fusion-pharma-purchase.html
There are quite a few territories that now accept applications where there is an existing approval in a recognised territory (or two) and do not require local trials….Takeda has the option with China and US approval to start these approvals now where they can deploy effectively or via third parties if needed.
Of course regulatory approval is only part of the battle - getting it adopted within insurance systems and publicly funded bodies is also tough (eg NICE for NHS England).
Thanks for providing the information.
Having passed the FDA approval test, let’s remain hopeful for a similar outcome here as well!
If I recall correctly from the earnings call the company was saying Q3….There has been no indication of a priority review from EMA so my guesstimate is the process runs through against a standard timeline.
The published process is 210 days for CHMP to give a scientific opinion and then there is the European Commission approval 67 days later, which is a total of 277 working days approx 14 months (with a few public holidays). So that would be August, although that is a peak holiday period so it may be September.
~The market opportunity was shown as 3x US, JP is the same as the US…which is why 2025 should be so much better than 2024.
application for approval for fru*****inib by the european medical agency was made in may/ june 2023. a positive outcome here in europe will be a major achievement for takeda and hcm and boost the income for both. that may, more likel,y encourage studies being conducted as primary therapy for other indications. hcm will become more noticeable in the pharma corporate market. question is how much longer will it take for ema’s decision to be announced?
Elsewhere Nerd of Steel did say he would be back…..apparently he has been doing very well on a 3x geared Nvidia ETF….so no regrets.
Did Davey sell? I hope not. I've not seen him post here for a long time.
Overhead supply from previous trading at 275-338, well within the timeframe for causing resistance to equity rally.
Whoever gave the death cross, advice was correct for the approximate 5 days, price fell. Coincidentally on 28/2/24, there was a spinning top , japanese candlestick day, which the sp, fell below.
The problem with moving averages, on which a death cross is based, is that the true average is in the middle of the number of days. Example 50 day moving average, 24 days back. 20 day moving average , 9 days back. On the positive side, moving averages, do smooth , what would otherwise be volatile data.
Market makers sticking to sticking to NMS, very hard to get in/out in any size.
We know roughly what the pipeline news will be this year and the in-market China sales. Unknowns are how successful Takeda will be ex-China and whether Sovlep will attract a partner paying a decent upfront fee.
Beyond that there are potential corporate actions to sell / demerge the subsidiary businesses which is possible and whether CKHH wants a strategic M&A action which has appeared unlikely in the past. CKHHs need to monetize its investment in HCM is likely low, it reports on Thursday next week.
What does seem clear is that HCM does not appear to need to raise any further equity finance. Indeed it looks increasingly likely that it already has surplus capital but it is unlikely to return any of that to SH before 2027.
With the above in mind, I would think HCM should become less volatile and more news driven but what do I know.
Exuberant share price movement in the absence of any substantial news is difficult to rely upon. After all the hikes seen earlier during the week, sp has dropped to 27 HK$ (~£2.70) and volume of more than 10 million, with in the first hour of trading, at HK.
Anyway, is there any “genuine” forthcoming information for the market to start noticing HCM?
The astrologers/chartists have got this one badly wrong…..apparently there was a ‘death cross’ at the end of Feb with the ADRs around $15…..that is said to be a very bad sign….
Maybe there will be some news that hopes to explain this weeks exuberance…or more likely there wont.
Davey will be kicking himself if he really did sell up.
Huge ADR volume, 3 x average already, markets barely open.
I can only sleep when HCM is >£3
And Nasdaq has moved to a £3 equivalent……
All those inexplicable angst inducing falls after the FDA approval near wiped out in a few days of without any new information.
Innovent has moved sharply up too, but Beigene/Junshi much less.
It was a late late show in HK with it only really moving up towards the end of the day.
The UK and US pre-market seem to be taking it a little further today.
FOMO seems to have taken hold.
These rapid changes in value help no-one and only convince me that this is a long term buy and hold proposition….the future seems more certain.
CKHH reports on 21 March….I am not expected them to make any announcements re Hutchmed, but some more acknowledgement within their results pack would be a start.
Strong results hence outperformance with other pharms, notably Beigene
I suppose it relates to statements at the Party get together…overall I dont like these no news movements, they can easily be reversed.
For me, the next important piece of news will be the Q1 24 sales made by Takeda in the US.
Nov/Dec was $15m, I am hoping for building momentum with $30m in Jan-Mar and that they can build this up to $50m per quarter by the end of the year, giving in-market sales of around $150m which would generate a royalty to HCM of $20m plus other manufacturing and support charges. It was interesting that the EU market is considerable larger than the US (although the pricing may be lower when that is determined), hence approval by EMA is also to be eagerly awaited, hopefully there will be meaningful EU sales later this year.
That's some move for HK
HANG SENG INDEX (^HSI)
17,093.50+505.93 (+3.05%)
Target Price HK$34.31 - see https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625295271_1.pdf
Mar 2023, Target Price was HK$37.49 - see https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202303021583957689_1.pdf
Mar 2022, Target Price was HK$73.25 - see https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202203071551123207_1.PDF
Sep 2021, Target Price was HK$77.74 - see https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202109171516738534_1.pdf