The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Only one trade this morning…..v unusual.
ITP is one of the haematological indications. Www search also brings up articles and news items mentioning many other immunological and haematological malignant conditions. It would have helped us if the company reiterates which are the conditions where Savlo is being developed as a useful therapy .
Searching the www suggests ITP has a prevalence of 9.5 per 100k people…..and it appears to be global rather than concentrated in certain markets…..more importantly, the condition persists for many years with an 80% survival after 5 years…hence the pharma co just needs to get to the patient for a multi year treatment plan.
You would think this would meet criteria to attract a global partner.
There must be much wider market for Sovleplenib as it has been developed for treating autoimmune conditions and haematological malignancies like lymphomas. It will be interesting to watch if the company can get another major player to collaborate, if required.
Amazing, still under price when Takeda deal was announced, curve on interest rates looks encouraging as does US relations with China (at the moment)
M& A continues at a pace with GSK acquisition this week - got to be in it to win it !
Yes some positive news…slightly behind schedule, but priority review will help get this to market in 2024 (approval in June/July?)
They did also promise an NDA for Amdizalisib in 2023….they have not given a trial result for that as yet…..to be confirmed whether that has been a positive result….the P1/2 trial numbers were very small so may not have been that representative of the larger Ph2 registration study….in which case it will be a full ph3 or deprioritised….
First piece of good news for the new year!
NMPA has accepted NDA for Sovleplenib for treatment of adult patients with primary immune thrombocytopenia, for review and granted priority review. As we are aware, HCM has been developing Sovleplenib for the treatment of hematological malignancies and immune diseases.
All a bit strange really, even got Cramer on the case now lol
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/05/cramer-names-biopharma-companies-as-industry-mergers-start-to-accrue.html
What about proposing a share buy back with spare cash ?
Can buyback boom revive the FTSE 100?
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-12931451/Can-buyback-boom-revive-FTSE-100.html
a pretty poor session for pharma in hk.
hcm only down 3%
innovent -7
beigene -9
a big 6 months for fru*****inib coming up……eu and japan approval. china approval of gastric cancer snda…..and the small matter of the royalties from early us sales.
Hong Kong-based AI-driven company sells potential breast cancer drug in deal whose value could exceed US$500 million
Insilico grants Italy’s Menarini Group, the global rights to develop and commercialise a novel small molecule inhibitor, as a potential treatment for hormone-sensitive cancers
https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3247263/hong-kong-based-ai-driven-company-sells-potential-breast-cancer-drug-deal-whose-value-could-exceed
FTSE private takeovers will continue 'unless action is taken', analysts warn
The 'relentless' pace of delisting and takeovers by foreign buyers will continue if urgent action to incentivise UK stock ownership is not taken, a senior analyst has warned.
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12921859/FTSE-private-takeovers-continue-unless-action-taken-analysts-warn.html?ito=email_share_article-top
AZ has signed another Chinese deal with Allorion (operates in China and US, but appears to be unlisted in US). The deal looks similar to that struck with HCM for Savo. A new EGFR drug will be developed by AZ in return for staged milestone payments and future royalties.
the company has very little track record of safeguarding investors interest, aptly demonstrated by ckhh's botched placing ****-up a few years ago, although to be fair it appears even senior management weren't aware it was going to happen. sometimes i get the feeling this is a ckhh vanity project.
In case, management has any genuine intention of safeguarding investors’ interests, it is not yet been made visible. Rather, the short sellers have been playing the market, fearlessly. Even after the Takeda deal (worth a third of the market value of the company), share price has failed to recover. No news of new fund holders/ institutions showing interest.
Hope 2024 will bring back the long last shine to the sp. In the mean while, investors have to remain philosophical for this company working hard to develop new therapies to patients diagnosed with serious health conditions.
All we really know is there has been a shift towards commercialisation and shareholder interests, if this includes a takeover while keeping their long term goals intact then possible.
Given the figures involving Takeda deal, you have to wonder if this topic has not already surfaced before.
Is the majority holder interested, at all, in receiving an offer, irrespective of what other, institutional and private, investors’ wishes?
As a minnow holder, I am interested to see an offer price!!
It looks like HCM has missed its China NDAs for Sovlep and Amdiz. I am somewhat surprised by the former as the results were read out in August, so a full four months have passed.
Resources are likely more limited due to the restructuring of the company this year and possibly focused on negotiating NDRL than new applications…..
They will need to up their game in 2024 as they now have listed 9 applications (including the confirmatory savo study) for completion by end of 2024. If they dont file in 2024, these cannot be approved and marketed in 2025 (unless there is accelerated approval).
Every missed milestone delays approval and defers revenue….. An extra $m or two spent on the regulatory processes in 2024 will be repaid manyfold in 2025/26.
Those that successfully pushed for a change in strategy will no doubt be monitoring all of this M & A activity.
Over the holiday break, in the US, Bristol Myers Squibb scooped up Boston innovator Karuna Therapeutics for £11.5billion.
Britain’s Astra deepened its commitment to oncology and China with the purchase of Gracell for just under £1billion.
Earlier in December, Astra splashed a similar amount on Seattle-based Icosavax which is pursuing a vaccine for RSV, a respiratory virus.
Pfizer, after a regulatory pause, has just secured approval for its £33billion takeover of cancer care group Seagen as it plays catch-up with Astra and others.
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/comment/article-12904577/ALEX-BRUMMER-Big-pharma-bets-biotech-global-drugs-industry-booms.html
Only a few are too big to be acquired……Pfizer has a $43bn deal recently agreed for Seagen.
My long held view is that China will want to see some local champions emerge and I think CKHH will swap their stake for a smaller holding in a bigger entity. They gave up on being the majority shareholder a long time ago…so it will come down to deal structure (cash/equity mix)….it will be the larger party giving value to the smaller party, so an offer by a larger player with a mix of cash / equity is my most likely outcome that is acceptable to CKHH and China regulators.
in comparison to those two chinese companies, where does hcm stand?
it is quite well established, successfully developed three oncology therapies which are already in the market. fru*****inib has recently become available in the united states and awaiting approval in europe and japan. plus a pipeline consisting of various ongoing phase2 and phase 3 studies for a number of clinical applications.
has hutchmed already become too big to be merged with another major phama? if at all possible, what might be an appropriate offer price?
Also option 1 but with a lot more of a premium than 30%...! eg 100% is acceptable.
Most are away from desks so news is not really being absorbed, still a bit of room in portfolio for a few more.
Yes, first option too, Takeda or AZ both with a strong focus on China which is also Hutchmeds strong point.
Bristol Myers have made two related acquisitions recently, there was also a third in October with acquisition of Mirati Therapeutics
Bristol Myers to buy RayzeBio for $4.1 billion
"Dec 26 (Reuters) - Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY.N) said on Tuesday it would buy RayzeBio (RYZB.O) for about $4.1 billion to bolster its cancer drug business, marking the second multi-billion dollar deal struck by the drugmaker in less than a week."
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/bristol-myers-buy-rayzebio-about-41-billion-2023-12-26/
AZ and others have had time to buy Hutchmed at a ridculously low valuation and some could argue they still can. Currently for UK based shareholders we now have the continued appreciation of GBP against the USD as another headwind to deal with.