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A nice surprise from HK overnight as HCM has risen a further 10% today.
The Chinese gambling spirit may push this higher in the short term, but I dont expect this to stick long after the PDUFA date when there will be profit taking.
But not complaining as we will likely see 325p this morning in London.
Bullish about the Chinese market, Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd is ramping up efforts to cooperate with local partners to help build a more innovative digital-empowered ecosystem in the country, said a Takeda senior executive.
Ramona Sequeira, president of the global portfolio division at the company, said: "We are in a stage of bringing many new innovative products to China. China's growth is strong, and we believe that in the next decade, the market will become our largest after the United States."
https://investinchina.chinaservicesinfo.com/s/202310/25/WS6538c3d5498ed2d7b7e9e565/takeda-ramps-up-efforts-in-china-market-to-enhance-local-ties.html
Cheers Jatw, will take a look.
Not a bad performance this week all things considered, held gains across the pond too.
Weightings for CNCR ETF as below puts HCM ahead of heavy weights such as Bristol Myers Squibb, could be down to merger I guess if both funds held the same stock.
1pencil / Davey and others - Innocare Pharma popped into my line of sight reading some recent pharma articles….
They are valued mostly as cash holdings….smaller than HCM first US NDA expected mid 2024 so PDUFA would be mid 25.
Not one to buy now, but may be worth tracking over the next couple of years to see how they are going.,,,any views?
It is a China company with a HK listing ref 9969.hk
Back to being the largest mcap on AIM - and would be v high in the FT250.
Big on AIM has not often been a comfortable position….
The PDUFA date creeps ever closer……and
we await the Amdiz read out
And Sovlep NDA submission plus any further partnering news.
BTW Takeda 2023 Q3 results were pretty poor reflecting a failed Ph3 and a failed confirmatory Ph3 trial. Profits were down 70%…..they will be looking for a bounce back next year in their oncology division..lets hope they get the opportunity to promote Fruq in the US soon.
It's yet another Buy rating from Investors Chronicle
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2023/10/26/the-aim-100-2023-10-to-1/
Hutchmed 4th largest holding following merger with Loncar 23rd Oct 23
https://www.rangecncr.com/
Here's the Crest loan data covering that period, borrowing went up hand in hand with put ratio, this was well planned organised imo.
Jun-22 2.90%
May-22 3.17%
Apr-22 4.15%
Mar-22 6.72%
Feb-22 6.69%
Jan-22 7.42%
Dec-21 5.79%
Nov-21 3.37%
Not convinced Jatw, we have had so many 'events' like this which turned out to be non-events it makes me sceptical, we can all watch the share price go down then pick from a selection of 'events' but no one really knows if that is accurate or not.
The only thing which has made a notable difference revolves around global interest rates coupled with China economy, Hutchmed tanked after rates started going up and recovered almost back to where it started following Covid exit by China.
We also know short borrowing jumped significantly around this time, look at the spike in puts ratio, this was well planned by those moving the chess pieces imo
https://images.fintel.io/us-hcm-put-call-ratio.png
Corruption reviews will impact all as it is aimed as much at the administration as the pharma cos.
However we can hope that it will affect specialist innovative younger companies less. Generics and easily substituted (cheap?) products would appear more susceptible. I would hope that Drs will choose to use innovative more effective products regardless of price/corrupt practices by competitors (I may be being naive).
Perhaps its the weaker players that will ultimately lose out, hence long/short strategy mentioned below?
Astra mentioned it would be a benefit in the longer term
Strange choice of names 'Junshi' at least in Japanese
HK seems to be ignoring the China regulatory activity….or atleast allowing optimism about global revenues for HCM to override that headwind.
It has recovered opening losses to less than 1% fall compared to 6-8% in UK/US yesterday.
Bodes well….but I would not be surprised to see some resistance / profit taking happen ahead and after the PDUFA decision…..
No, and this is why -
'What are you doing 1pencil? are you buying?'
Closed at equivalent 306p in HK, pitch up here and make base ready for summit PDUFA ..
If we take a one year view the figures look slightly different:
HCM+115%
Innovent +71%
Beigene +7.17%
Junshi -22%
Looking at your earlier comparisons below Jatw, HCM's relative performance could be due to market consolidation speculation post Takeda deal.
Hedge fund favourite is to go long the strongest player and short the weakest, thereby creating a natural hedge.
------------------------------------------
HCM certainly has momentum behind it…..but china pharma recent performance has been selective- last 6m
HCM+13%
Innovent +10%
Beigene -23%
Junshi -38%
This has understandably had a good run….if it keeps going it will be around 375p at PDUFA date.
I wonder when some more significant profit taking will set in?
What are you doing 1pencil? are you buying?
It cant be anymore than 20 posts since you were selling at 200p or thereabouts, now at 300p you are buying ?
Haha well I am buying again at the moment ;o-)
What price did you sell out davey..lol
That was a pretty strong move NASDAQ, double daily volumes against a weak main market, ended at the highs too.
It wouldn't surprise me in the least if Hutchmed were in play with the likes of Astra
Sorry Amones, yes it was, apologies for the lack of context
I thought it was interesting given AZ's tie-up with HCM. Not directly related of course but I thouigh the background iswas interesting and relevant
Was this post meant for AZN message board? Just checked AZN board, couldn’t see it posted.
Or, is there relevance to HCM?
AstraZeneca has said that an anti-corruption investigation launched by China in the healthcare sector has hit prescription volumes and access to doctors.
The FTSE 100 pharmaceuticals company, which is the biggest multinational drug group operating in the world’s second-largest economy, issued the warning in an “aide memoire” before its third-quarter trading update next month.
President Xi’s administration intensified a clampdown on bribery, embezzlement and fraud across the country’s healthcare sector in August. Hospital bosses and chief executives of local drug companies have been detained, pharma company access to hospitals has been curtailed, share prices have been hit and initial public offerings have been pulled.
Beijing’s campaign has created further uncertainty for overseas drug companies active in the country. AstraZeneca has grown quickly in China over the past decade, with the country accounting for 13 per cent of its $44.3 billion total group sales last year, up from 5 per cent a decade ago.
Underlining the growing importance of China to AstraZeneca’s future, Leon Wang, who heads its China operations, vowed in May that it would be a patriotic company that “loves the Communist Party and loves the country” during celebrations to mark the 30th anniversary of AstraZeneca in China.
In the note to investors and analysts AstraZeneca said it anticipated that the corruption investigation would “benefit compliant companies in the longer term” but said “the company has seen a reduction in access to physicians as well as some negative impact on prescription volumes. These investigations were not anticipated at the time of first-half results [in July].”
Analysts at Stifel told clients that the expectation had been for a return to growth in China this year for AstraZeneca, adding: “The statement underpins possible unexpected consequences on the business impacting the end of the third quarter and possibly fourth quarter.”