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A good rise in NY has put the theoretical UK price over £3.
Of course there is the small matter of a second war that could develop in unpredictable ways over the weekend.
There still seems to be momentum with 6 weeks til the PDUFA date…..
HCM certainly has momentum behind it…..but china pharma recent performance has been selective- last 6m
HCM+13%
Innovent +10%
Beigene -23%
Junshi -38%
The continued doldrums for Beigene perhaps presents a rotation opportunity once the gains in HCM and Innovent start to level off. Davey has previously told us Beigene is more expensive on various metrics…although part of that must be the relative maturity of the company and where it is in launching its pipeline.
For once the analysts got it right, markets did go up HK around 2% on back of bank stimulus.
Shorts trending down with another drop NASDAQ this time, can be very few if any reasons to go short, reverse and long is the name of the game..
Could end the week starting with a 3..who knows..
It did say it was not progressing with the submission in Japan but it gave no details as to why.
It would be a brave regulator that accepts a small bridge when it was not accepted by US / EU so my guess would be the regulator indicated they would not accept it…..but it may also be the case that the results were below expectations…..
Having said it was MCRT ready, and strongly pressed the partner model for global work, that it has been difficult to get a partner signed up to help take it forward….but if they dont take it forward I would have doubts about the longevity of the China earnings as competition will not be far away.
Compounding, has the company announced the results of Sulanda bridging study conducted in Japan? Latest information from last year was about commencement of enrolling cases for the global ph3 study. Is it the lack of updates/ publication of results the reason behind the ‘apparent’ assumption?
Closed in US bang on where UK closed, China is gradually coming out of post Covid dip - analysts calling markets up from here, US sanctions are largely priced in and fairly limited in scope.
New factory opening should help with margins generally, time to back off on R & D/CAPEX and benefit from past expenditure.
I'd like to think that Hutchmed would work to in-license other firms drugs into China to leverage their extensive coverage and sales network. They need to continue to think more flexibly and be dynamic in their path towards becoming profitable as soon as they can. Interesting price movement on NASDAQ today - it was up over 10% a short time ago........
Johnson & Johnson Vision eyes more innovations, investments in nation
Peter Menziuso, company group chairman for Johnson & Johnson Vision, said during his recent visit to Shanghai: "China is one of our top markets for growth. We will continue to support investments in China."
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202310/10/WS6524a4a0a31090682a5e7a43.html
Bayer plans to invest more in China
"We can see a lot of innovations in the country … In the pharmaceutical area, new medicines that have been introduced in the United States and Europe can now be also introduced immediately in China,"
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202310/11/WS6525f2dda31090682a5e7d85.html
I think how things stand it is pretty likely that they have deprioritized suru globally. The last chance was the Japan bridging study, which apparently hasnt produced the desired result.
The october update is now available,,,,,TBH I struggled to find much change.
They are still maintaining Amdiz could be submitted as NDA this year, but given no read out at yet and we are 2 months past the Sovlep readout with no NDA filed it is looking less and less likely.
The other item we could do with an update on is the global approach for Surufatinib……it is 18m on from the CRL and there is no news….earlier this year it was described as ph3 ready. Some possible explanations are 1 they are in negotiation with a partner and will announce the trial and partnership together, 2 the combination of suru + Tori is far superior and they will take that to the global stage once the China trial completes. 3 a competitor is about to knock out suru with a much better product. 4 they have deprioritised global suru and are not pursuing it.
Oct 8 (Reuters) - Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY.N) on Sunday said it will acquire cancer drug maker Mirati Therapeutics (MRTX.O) for up to $5.8 billion, diversifying its oncology business and adding drugs it hopes can help offset expected lost revenue from patent expirations later this decade.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/bristol-myers-squibb-acquire-mirati-48-billion-deal-2023-10-08/#:~:text=Oct%208%20(Reuters)%20%2D%20Bristol,patent%20expirations%20later%20this%20decade.
Deals being done with Chinese pharma companies
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12609655/GSK-agrees-2-5bn-shingles-vaccine-deal-Chinas-Zhifei.html
As predicted/hoped for by 1pencil we seem to have a consolidation around 270p.
While other HK stocks experienced some recent declines HCM did not….the bio pharma market in HK now seems to be advancing, so hopeful of further gains ahead of the PDUFA date….the main catalysts for 2024 lie in China approvals and Takeda global sales….
That is the sort of premium that makes for a knock out bid - not out of line with historic bids for developmental companies…..once it is clear they have something novel that is likely to work…
A Takeda drug for NSCLC has been voluntarily withdrawn in the US after its confirmatory Ph3 trial unexpectedly failed…..With some NDAs expected soon from Ph II studies, we should expect more confirmatory trials for HCMs second wave portfolio.
Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eli-lilly-buy-point-biopharma-105532760.html
That's not a bad recovery considering NASDAQ on its botty yet again for nearly 2%
J&J has published a trial result that pitted its treatment against Tagrisso and they say it has been successful in some respects.
The main risk for any treatment is that a better one comes along…..I have long thought that AZ is holding back Savolitinib to be able to extend Tagrisso’s market with a combination therapy….I wonder if this news from JNJ will accelerate the need to bring Savolitinib to market outside China?
Good spot davey, momentum seems to be with us, relatively small free float is on our side also.
HK shorts still trending down
Happy to hear this too "The FDA review is progressing and the inspection of HUTCHMED’s manufacturing facility in Suzhou, China has been completed"
"alongside our partner takeda, we are pleased to take this key step towards bringing fru*****inib to patients in japan," said dr. michael shi, head of r&d and chief medical officer of hutchmed. "supported by a strong clinical data set, and its success in china, we believe that fru*****inib is an important option for these patients and are optimistic about the impact it will have if approved in japan. there is now real regulatory momentum behind fru*****inib, and we are excited to see this drug take to the global stage."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/hcm/nda-submission-for-fru*****inib-in-japan-2twsm9x5g82e7j8.html
It has rushed up to and exceeded 270….
Another day in HK where it outperformed peers (Beigene, Junshi, Innovent all down 3% or more). A low volume session generally and for Biotech in particular.
There is a clear price catalyst for HCM with the PDUFA date now 2 months away. Once that is past, some drift back may set in.
Six month performance of NASDAQ awful, HCM not doing too bad given this - can it bust through glass ceiling at $17 ?
The small fall in HK this morning was still a relative outperformance by, HCM.
About 9 weeks until the PDUFA day.
While the science may be compelling there are many other potential issues that could cause delay.
I think I recall that a Swiss plant is going to be used for manufacture, which would reduce the risk associated with delays caused by on site inspections in China.
Not a bad day across the pond, nudging $17 dough-lars
Several of those Invesco points have been mentioned or discussed here previously, good to have third party input though.
China healthcare a unique multidecade investment bet
Among the more promising sectors, we believe healthcare is a unique multidecade investment opportunity. Spending on healthcare had soared over the past decades from under 500 billion yuan ($68.46 billion) in 2000 to more than 6.5 trillion yuan in 2019. China's healthcare market is now the second-largest globally and in 2021 generated 10 trillion yuan in total revenue. China's healthcare sector looks set for a sustained revival in 2023.
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202309/25/WS6510e2e7a310d2dce4bb79a5.html