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Meant more the new digital yuan Harry.That there paying people at the mo to use.
Dips have been bought so far to date.Will be interesting to see how this plays out today. Wither the protected portfolios are not so protected ;-)
ATB
Digital crypto is a way of life here but Government controlled. Could be a reasonable bet if they ever listed here. Unlikely.
Still a stormy sea out there for HBR should be on the up. Odd.
HC
Harry hows it going over there with the new digital currency
No problem. Have a nice day hope we breach 400p.
HC
10y!
Sorry Harry, must have got out of bed on the wrong side this morning…isn’t BST +6 Thailand or Cambodia? Anyhow you’re invested and things looking a bit better than a couple of weeks ago so positivity dial turned a bit to the right.
Oil dips getting shallower. Those underwhelming Russian gas nominations certainly passed through into the distillate markets yesterday. China 4th round teapot allocations bit lower than last year, but Chinese need to buy crude, and triple digit backwardation in the sour spreads. As Jeff points out 20y stable and dollar weaker today…all time highs once more on the S&P anyone ? Bump and grind with harbour and into the 400s… Good luck all
Shal
Its hard to respond to gibberish but I will try. So now your theory is I'm a 'shorter', presumably on HBR and I got burnt. Oh how I wish I had been clever enough to short HBR because my guess is I would have made money. As it is I'm a old PMO shareholder and I certainly got burnt but as I keep repeating I'm a big boy now and I took my losses a long time ago. I will add again that I'm an optimist as far as HBR goes so lets see how it pans out.
Have a nice day.
HC
Pleb
Not sure on your intent but happy to oblige if you want to debate like a muppet. Getting personal is always an error in my judgement but hey we all have the right to say as we please as long as its not offensive.
Have a nice day and please relax a bit.
HC
Morning well the boards just got a lot more interesting.
Are you living in China Harry and I enjoy your posts, always good to have a bit of balance.While the indicators work there magic. ;-)
Which one? I had a dodgy chow mien from the one on Tooting High Street.
HC I guess you were working for arcm and probably was a shorter, and now that the shorts lost money you are grumpy and trying to scare people off with pessimistic views. I'm very wary of what you have to say.
I have a motto in life especially after the pandemic - never trust the Chinese.
HC good to read then :) have a good day. As for China you´re spot on. As for HBR you´re too pessimistic imo. General stock markets and real estate are overvalued, but it wouldnt be the first time in history to see 10 years of stagflation with commodities rising so things all interdepend, but as oil doesnt necessarily rise when tech or crypto goes up, its the same for the contrary: oil and gas may rise - and commodities rising may be one of the many reasons for general stock markets to go down or "being held up" by central banks in the next years = stagflation.
His messages getting longer , more repetitive and more tedious. Very much in the style of that retired fella who lived in the Middle East , who used to annoy rather than add anything interesting to the board. Had a bit of a drunken posting syndrome later in the day. Littered with spelling, grammar and syntax errors. Can anybody remember his name?
Miles
Wrong side of the world so I'm up 6 hours before you so I can read yesterdays posting and comment. Not stressed at all gives me something to do and hopefully all input, good and bad, looks to help everyone.
Epiphany
Calm down a bit. Clearly your not the smartest when it comes to world events like the Evergrande problem that looks to be the start of a property meltdown in China, and in turn most of the world simply because China has the second largest economy in the world. You ask where I get my numbers and opinions. Simple really. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan and some pretty good investigations by Sky News Australia.
Just for you I will repeat the facts ok so you don't misunderstand. The property bubble in China, that is modelled on the famous Ponzi Scheme, is presently valued at 70$Trillion, yep 70$Trillion and its suggested it could be higher. This debt is made up of Bonds, Notes, etc, etc, plus good old joe public money. Company's like Evergrande and Prestiguous are only two of many in the property sector in dire straights. These guys, because of China new capital requirements, have been unable to leverage the debt and borrow more money to cover the Bond, etc, payments. As a result their now in default and their credit ratings by the likes of Fitch have been reduced to 'junk' status. Analogy is that its a pack of cards that is fast collapsing and the repercussions will be felt far and wide across the world. Percentage on foreign Bond's, etc, is estimated at 30%. By comparison the US sub-prime collapse in 2007, that saw the demise of Lehman Brothers and a few others, involved only 23$Trillion in that Ponzi Scheme. Difference was US banks and Government acted swiftly but it was still carnage across world markets. Xi is not riding to the rescue he wants them to fail is my guess then property ownership will fall under the control of the Chinese government.
You may ask how I know all of this stuff. Simple really. I live here.
Have a nice day but do calm down a bit and keep your eye's on world events and understand them before having a little tantrum.
HC
Leave him alone, that’s him being optimistic.
I dont read HC´s comments anymore. But wondered why someone posts at 4:15 in the morning. Lonely people running around in the internet chat boards sometimes searching for "someone" listening to them I guess... :/
You all have a good day. Including HC when he wakes up. And HC: do some sports - it helps you out of the depression. No irony, not laughing about you at all man, honest advice.
FFS HC - I'm not sure how you pluck these kind of figures out of thin area. " Lenders across the world would then get zero with the estimated debt bubble of 70$Trillion, a lot of money. By comparison the crash of 2007 from US sub-prime debt was 23$Trillion so one third of the Chinese Ponzi Scheme. " Lenders outside China have exposure to $70 trillion debt in the Chinese property market??? Is it any wonder that your world view is so dour with numbers like these? The entire Chinese debt outstanding isn't that much - let alone western banks exposure. China will manage their internal debt as they are what they are - authoritarian. Western banks have but a few billion bucks exposed to the China property market and they can absorb that easily.
Just ignore the noise around profits - look at FCF generation. That's key. And HBR will generate a good number for H2 and 2022, even with their dubious hedging.
TLDR
@Harrycash are you living in the US or are you really posting at 4am in the morning .... no wonder you re depressed all the time. Better get some sleep and do some sports in the morning :)
I think the 20-1 was to hold share prices at this level is a psychological thing investors would pay 22p but not 440. This will move higher and the share will be split 1-2 when dividends are worked out and announced which will give the big investors an opportunity to get in.
Ah well yesterday was not so bad but 400p was not breached. That said it appears the back of a fag packet analysis was out in force with varying issues from the 500m new debt to existing and future HBR hedges, etc, etc, etc.
I know everyone here wants to win on their bets on HBR, me too, but lets get a bit real and wonder why we're still at sub 20p in old money. We did better than that when oil/gas prices tanked to multi year lows. Then the share price range was anything between 20p to 33p so now we're at multi year highs for oil/gas why is the HBR share price still in the toilet and not following the same oil/gas price pattern upwards at pace. Come's back to how the MM's view HBR on a risk/reward basis. It could actually be a hangover from the PMO days when investors got virtually wiped out by the reverse takeover by HBR. You know the fable 'once burnt twice shy'. Or something like that .
On HBR present tax position. Yep they inherited a huge legacy tax break from the reverse takeover of PMO, main reason for the deal going through plus the deal enabled existing PMO share holders to be thrown to the alligators. One thing in life is for certain, death and taxes, so HBR benefit hugely from the mistakes of PMO Board and the losses to shareholders. Will HBR ever pay taxes, unlikely, but first they need to make real profit not the smoke and mirror numbers they spin out that most here seem to believe. Question is do those believers here actually understand what HBR Board spew out in the financial updates. Clearly the MM's do so it remains 'buyer beware'.
On the new 500m debt line at 5.5%. Again a bit of smoke and mirrors on the allocation of this money but clearly the 'arrangers' got very well paid and the juice over 5 years is huge. We live in the days of cheap money that is freely handed out to solid companies at very low rates so HBR 5.5% juice ain't cheap so logic follows that HBR are not viewed as a solid company. Anyway, debt is debt simple as that and lets just hope with all of HBR other issues the projected FCF is not eaten up with shareholders getting nowt.
Looks like the Chinese property market is now in freefall with Evergrande and other major sector players all in default on Bond payments. Worst case scenario is that the whole sector collapses and is taken in-house by Xi and his cronies, basically nationalised. Lenders across the world would then get zero with the estimated debt bubble of 70$Trillion, a lot of money. By comparison the crash of 2007 from US sub-prime debt was 23$Trillion so one third of the Chinese Ponzi Scheme. 2007 saw the fall of the likes of Lehman Brothers and other gold plated institutions. If the Chinese property market falls then the markets across the world will tumble. Worth keeping an eye on these developments because it will impact every part of the Chinese economy and if China sneezes we all get a cold (ok up to now its only Covid)
All theory of course but lets see if HBR breaches 400p (20p) toda