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We have risen everyday we have been in the FT 100. Can we do the hat trick tomorrow.
Not blowing the lights out but much rather have a low and steady rise.
Every day another 200k + production, 7 million dollars of profit..........
Must surely make us a more and more investable company.....
NSS
You can’t be serious? We dropped about 15% in the few days leading up to it?!
it's good to look on the bright side :)
I did say since we were in the FT 100.
I know we are down wagon loads in the lead up to that and think Im down roughly the same as you are.
Lets hope we keep our 100% record in tact tomorrow. No reason why not based on current gas and oil prices tonight....
Hopefully the smoke and mirrors will finish soon and we will trade like any normal cash machine type oiler.....
From where do get the $7M a day ? Hedging aside it is surely 215,000 x 98 (profit per barrel) = $21,070M a day. In a sense one should ignore hedging because it is temporary and very little is hedged into 2024. But even allowing for hedging of two thirds it is surely much more than $7m a day.
'Hedging aside' ?! If only!
And what makes you think that everything will be unhedged in 2024 at $114 per barrel?
Agreed.....no unhedged output....HE business model will still include hedging to ensure an element of stability in case the market becomes volatile.
It was based on them paying down 200$ million of debt per month.
It’s only a ball park figure….
With the debt paid off which I think it will be by Christmas, there is no need to hedge into 2024. Forward prices into 2024 are much higher than the hedging prices into 2022 and 2023. So if it did hedge into 2024 HBR could book a much higher stream of certain income. But Harbour energy has such low production costs that it can afford to take the spot prices whatever they are. The reason I think one should ignore the bad hedging into 2022 and 2023 is that it is a bit like a landlord giving a tenant a 2 year discount on the rent. A rational property market values the property on the full market rent payable into the future and ignores the short term discount (to a very large extent).
And also the reason I think the debt will be paid off by Christmas is that $600M of the $2.3Bn has been paid off already in the first quarter. True CAPEX was only $160M in the first quarter and will be higher for the remaining three. BUT the interest on debt is reducing and the overall prices are higher on the unhedged output than the average for the first quarter. And of course we have the Tolmount contribution.
Based on what you said there we could easily be debt free by end of 2022.
However it is very unusual for a company to pay off debt completely so I can't see them doing that.
Surely they will look to grow the company and go on a bit of a spending spree.
There are loads of fields for sale in the North Sea but its not an ideal time to buy.....
Would you consider buying Hurricane energy ?
I agree if the company starts buying oil fields then the debt will not be cleared. But the CEO talked about the advantage of rapid deleveraging whilst prices remained high in her presentation last March and I suspect she will want to do that. They have plenty of fields to develop. And yes Hurricane, Tullow and of course BP are all steals at these prices if you are a value investor. But I cannot remember a time when a company was trading on a sustainable forward PE of 2. And that is what makes Harbour so extraordinary. For some reason the market just is not doing the maths.
If they choose to pay off debt then a big factor is what the interest payed now would compare to any future debt requirements.
Maybe partial payoff and a new revolving debt facility at agreed rates.
And a bigger divi thanks…
Yes I can see the future being a mix of all things.
Debt repayment
Investment in new fields
Increase Dividend
Share Buy Backs..
With so much cash coming in why not ???