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Will this trial ever end? If you stay invested you’re betting on a favourable outcome. I expect over 20 if gsk is exhonerated.
But has it got the legs to go much further.
Stuck between & rock and a hard place.....sell and bank the profits or stick it out. Decisions decisions.
'Moderna’s First Vaccine Was a Big Hit. Its Second Is a Let Down'
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-05-09/moderna-s-mrna-rsv-vaccine-isn-t-better-than-gsk-or-pfizer-shots
'Early signs from clinical trials suggest that Moderna’s shot wears off faster than offerings from GSK Plc and Pfizer Inc.'
Mixed feelings; I really want to see progress on mRNA & miRNA on a range of diseases [especially cancers] but I am a GSK shareholder.
Reviewing actual sales £m vs consensus
Shingrix. 945. +40
Arexvy. 182. -9
Cabenuva. 213. -3
Dovato. 483. +11
Benlysta. 260. -31
Apretude. 54. -5
Nucala. 374. -18
Ojjaara. 52. +15
Jemperli. 80. +17
Top 9. 2643. +17
Shingrix beat due to public funding expansion and early supply to Zhifel
Dovato growing at 27% and leading oral 2DR
Ojjaara beat due to strong US launch and launched in UK and Germany in Q1 2024
Jemperli beat because it is growing >100% with continued strong momentum and growth.
Overall well received results and guidance increased 😊
Last year's guidance of 56.5 actually yielded 58p. This year's guidance of 60p may well turn out at 61.5p. and increase in line with forecast core eps growth, so no change in policy. It pays to remember that every penny over that number is a penny not spent on paying down debt and/or on r and d.
Adeg/we are becoming more of a growth company ,that means less dividends. You are going to be disappointed holding this, if you are expecting dividend increases. What you will see overtime is the SP will increase. By top slicing on the top of the trading range ,you can get your divi that way
Not with a 60p per year dividend, it would be down to 3% at £20 per share. Time to give some more back to the owners.
£20 looks odds-on soon.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/GSK/1st-quarter-results/16448807
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
I know I’m ever the optimist but I have a hunch it’s going to be a good quarter with a strong start to the year. If we also get any positive news on Zantac litigation or pipeline progress, particularly on Depemokimab or Camlipixant that would be icing on the cake.
GLA
£16.54 give or take was a support level for GSK which was broken ca 2002 and then became an upper or resistance level from then on. Today will be pivotal as price settled at this level. Theory is that if price falls below and is later confirmed below next week then near term outlook bearish.
Given all the recent drug developments and approvals at GSK and the minimal impact on SP I wonder how this Company would fare if their main listing moved to the US. Pharma Cos now turning to AI for development are widely expected to rerate much higher. Hot money in the US, coming from record highs in their main indices, will be looking to exploit dirt cheap opportunities elsewhere. Would I be surprised at an 'opportunistic' offer this year?
Consensus estimates are out for Q1 24 for the top 9 products which will drive growth for the next two years. £m
Shingrix. 905
Arexvy. 191
Cabenuva. 216
Dovato. 472
Benlysta. 291
Apretude. 59
Nucala. 392
Ojjaara. 37
Jemperli. 63
Top 9. 2626
In Q1 last year the top 9 sold £1991m so growth of £635m (31.9%) is expected across these products. It’ll be interesting to see what next week brings.
GLA
Another treatment approved by FDA. Well done all the research teams. GSK building another range of products with significant potential.
If we can get an agreement with the US courts on Zantac we could see a significant re rating for GSK especially with $ earnings.
GSK always seems to fall hardest on the back of ftse decline. Only company to post positive news to off set this yet we take the biggest fall.
Should todays RNS push the share price up and further forward after this (interest rate Inflation rate) halt has settled down?
Do we have any key dates, for the next hearings. Any ideas when this will all be finalised ?
Sanofi settlements will undermine confidence. So far GSK has only set aside£40m for litigation costs,not settlements. It's possible that once word leaks out about the value of Sanofi's settlements, and it will leak with so many, that the generally touted figure of £5 billion will at £70,000 per case, may not be enough.
I think the problem is more to do with Zantac. Sanofies recent settlement hasn't helped at all inmv.
The sooner this is over the better. Delaware is the key here. Hopefully the worst case scenario is now factored into the share price. I.e. Five billion dollar settlement to clear this up.
I just hope that this doesn't turn into another gravy train for the us. Similar to BP and the gulf of Mexico disaster.
Down 8%+ in just over a week?? Can anyone shed any light on the reasons for this?
Mortgage renewal rate increase :(
The consensus forecast just published shows the sales growth expected for the top 9 GSK products by top analysts in 2024:
£m
Shingrix. 500
Arexvy. 372
Cabenuva. 339
Dovato. 332
Benlysta. 165
Apretude. 164
Nucala. 156
Ojjaara. 134
Jemperli. 128
Top 9. 2290
These products are also the biggest sales growth drivers in 2025 as well so achieving or exceeding the sales growth targets this year will be critical for the SP. In addition Camlipixant and Depemokimab are expected to launch in 2025 so pipeline progress on these assets this year will also be important for investor confidence.
Sorry Nick. waiting 2 months now. Hopefully just waiting a respectful amount of time before throwing the case in the bin.
The dividend is not likely to improve Chatroom - but by not holding you are missing the chance of a substantial re-rating when the Delaware ruling arrives. Even if it goes against GSK (which on balance it shouldn't) IMHO the worst case scenario is already priced in.
Not sure why GSK took such a hit compared with the other manufacturers of Ranitidine. It's like they are the only company to ever sell this drug.
Does anyone have a clue when Judge Medinilla's ruling is likely to be due?
I sold my shares earlier this the year because Im getting a far better div return on other stocks, GSK is currently only paying 3.44%. as of today rate.
I def intend to return later in the year if the div improves