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Started: steph, 13 Jun 2024 12:05
Last post: steph, 13 Jun 2024 12:05
“Deutsche Bank raises Molten Ventures target to 662 (661) pence - 'buy'”
from grow news today
Started: steph, 13 Jun 2024 08:23
Last post: contend, 13 Jun 2024 10:11
Barclays still have their target price at 330p, they have the diluted NAV per share as 660p
I have found this:
"Deutsche Bank raises Molten Ventures target to 662 (661) pence - 'buy'"
- though I can't find any link yet to the new Barclays pt.
Barclays appear to have raised target to 660. Was very low.
Modest enough but welcome. Recognition they had it wrong.
Started: contend, 13 Jun 2024 07:37
Last post: contend, 13 Jun 2024 07:37
Sky news reported yesterday that the London Stock Exchange is in talks to license the retail capital-raising technology of portfolio asset, PrimaryBid, as well as its regulated dealmaking activities and key UK operations.
Hold grow and augm (which will top up).
Anyone here got any views on ipo, deep discount and similar size to grow?
Started: Sangijuelas1, 12 Jun 2024 14:36
Last post: Gettingthere67, 12 Jun 2024 15:56
I found that an informative and illuminating interview - not just about MV but also in the way the CEO talks about the whole AI-inflected business landscape - from an original and thoughtful perspective IMO.
Last post: Sangijuelas1, 12 Jun 2024 14:24
Yeah that's Seedcamp III fund which they bought for £8.5m so a very small part of the overall portfolio.
Page 23. My interpretation of “we will not be needing to fund the following companies…”
Last post: Gettingthere67, 12 Jun 2024 10:34
So glad that I re-bought my hodling here a few weeks ago - and added some more shares yesterday.
I note 'The Armchair Trader' wrote this morning:
"Full year numbers are out from Molten Ventures [LON:GROW] today, noting gross portfolio value as being broadly flat but the per share NAV stands at 662p, around double the underlying share price. Management report a productive year and add that they expect to see a step up in realisations, which should put around £100m back onto the balance sheet this year. Shareholders however won’t be on course for a quick boost as the money will be used for NAV accretive opportunities."
Yeah I was looking for that and couldn't see it
Steph, when you say "They listed the companies that don’t need funding (I presume because they have some modest profit)". Where is this in the report?
From what I can see this only relates to the assets in the Seedcamp 2014 Fund III (page 23), and not the wider Molten portfolio. I hope I'm wrong however.
For me a major positive is that they have dropped the part from last years risk mitigation strategy.
In relation to addressing public market risk they suggested that delisting would be a possible way to address this.
This has now been dropped from this year's outline of the risks.
I think it's because you pushed them about it several times on the calls Steph!
Started: contend, 10 Jun 2024 18:03
Last post: contend, 10 Jun 2024 18:03
Rheinmetall is to acquire an undisclosed stake in Iceye Die Welt reported on 9 June. The report says the deal was announced at the ILA air show in Berlin, which ended on Sunday. Financial terms and the size of the stake were not disclosed.
[LINK REMOVED]
Started: steph, 10 Jun 2024 14:46
Last post: steph, 10 Jun 2024 14:46
Https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/10/labour-election-victory-markets-jp-morgan-city?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Labour gets a big majority on anything above 40% of vote considering how fragmented the other parties support is now.
I expect the Tory polling to decline as Kim Cambell’s in 1993 Canada election which had surisingly similar party dynamics.
Canadian Conservatives were on about 35% when they called the election -equal to liberals. But in a 2 month lackluster campaign ended up with 16% and only 2 seats and a Liberal Majority. Mulroney who did the damage and then resigned leaving Kim to pick up the pieces was a Boris like figure. “Baloney Mulroney”
UK Tories start to get less than 10 seat under 20% of the national vote. Will not be completely wiped out even with only 15% as a few seats have impregnable majorities.
Started: Gettingthere67, 7 Jun 2024 22:09
Last post: Jim800, 8 Jun 2024 20:24
The 527 was the uncrossing trade so not a buy but the bigger one was!
Two substantial sp buys AH today - 749.35k and 527.10k
Started: steph, 1 Jun 2024 11:15
Last post: steph, 1 Jun 2024 11:15
Https://pitchbook.com/items/files?eu=yQk2%2BlrYNIMauZa%2FSzm5A%2BrDx4RdHOKwIWgi8zyQMN9%2FVuNJKOBlRG9WmH%2BTxR4%2Bqej3sfYDp8EmkNfVinFw9HjsK0nfJaglVkTOVXJMCSRwEUxIA%2BmOHLLDAZEBhCUDzoPD9g%2Bi%2BVoW%2BVBwKdTzBg%3D%3D
“Conditions have improved, so why is PE still waiting?
In many ways, the current macro environment should be quite supportive of PE.
Real economic growth has continued to be robust while input prices have moderated, which has created a positive backdrop for portfolio companies' topline growth and profit margins.
Labor market turnover and wage growth have slowed without a pickup in layoffs, and leveraged finance investors are offering the most favorable lending terms with respect to credit spreads in the post-GFC period.
Yet, the figurative dam holding back pent-up PE buyout deal and exit activity has not broken despite many in the industry trying to speak it into existence. The continued lack of activity is putting many components of the traditional PE buyout investment cycle under pressure.”
We still need interest rate reductions it seems.
Last post: Sangijuelas1, 31 May 2024 16:21
Yeah I was just about to post that funnily enough. BlackRock led with Molten.
I stand corrected Sang, thanks. I'm a long-term holder and my patience has been tested but we're now approaching my breakeven of 419p so optimistic that we keep going up this time.
The recent Investor Meet call was encouraging. With all of the Seed funds there are a lot of GROW fingers in a lot of pies so there will inevitably be some big winners in there. Strong interest in the Series B funding for FintechOS.
https://businesscloud.co.uk/news/molten-ventures-leads-47m-round-into-fintech/
I think yesterdays spike was FTSE 250 trackers buying especially towards the end of the day and today the FTSE All Share trackers will be selling it.
It didn't drop back to AIM. It was in the FTSE All share
Membership has been cursed for us but let’s hope this time round helpful.
No theoretical reason might hurt. Should mean some additional programmed buys to balance out FTSE 250 trackers. Never been sign of that.
I think this drift up has a bit more to run. 2/3rds NAV/share for our SP about right in current market conditions. SP =Nav/share as son as NAv/share starts rising again -maybe as soon as October update. Certainly by May 2025 year end update.
Started: Sangijuelas1, 28 May 2024 22:00
Last post: W13Ken, 31 May 2024 13:07
I hope this isn't the kiss of death again. All-time high was Sept 2021 within weeks of joining the FTSE 250 followed by a rapid fall and relegation back to AIM. Not a promising start today but the market has picked up so hope we can buck that trend.
Looks like new ii getting in ahead by the look of it.
Nice
Started: Stuartrm, 31 May 2024 10:06
Last post: Stuartrm, 31 May 2024 10:06
In today's News section on this site: "Replacing Hargreaves in the FTSE 250 is Molten Ventures PLC." Hopefully this will improve the profile of Molten and reduce the discount to NAV.
Started: Alas_Smith, 22 May 2024 07:40
Last post: Gettingthere67, 29 May 2024 12:30
You say: "This is likely to be my final post to this board."
That's a pity. I have always enjoyed and valued your posts here.
Well, well, well, we have an election ahead of us. This is simply observation that new governments are not voted in but unpopular governments are voted out. Markets hate uncertainty. Rachel Reeves has been on a 2 year mission to charm the City and has their confidence. Recent speeches and Labour Policy have been well received but what will this mean for GROW (or for that matter other shares in a portfolio)?
A step back and a read of her recent speech back in Feb this year gives a few clues. Changes will not happen immediately, they never do, but all businesses can have some confidence that the Labour Party with Reeves as Chancellor is likely to benefit the economy even though interest rates might not fall until August.
The mood of the UK, seems rather fed up with this administration, where, since 2019 there have been 4 Prime Ministers and no election.
https://labour.org.uk/updates/press-releases/rachel-reeves-speech-at-labours-business-conference/
Anyway, my reading of the entrails suggest a decisive win for Labour, that stock markets will rise in the run up to election as poll numbers are released (through certainty) and a rising tide lifts all vessels.
This is likely to be my final post to this board. I tend to take the keenest interest when worried on the future prospects OR if there are one or more bullying contributors. Opinions are like n!pples - some are pointed, others rounded. I'd like to pay particular thanks to steph whose determined optimism, depth and breadth of knowledge has been extremely useful. I have been averaging up in recent weeks and continue so to do in small chunks putting surplus dividends to work.
With interest rate cuts to follow, I hope. I recall reading somewhere in the last couple of years that 3% - 4% base rate was the sweet spot for Banks, Governments and businesses.
Started: Sangijuelas1, 28 May 2024 12:12
Last post: Sangijuelas1, 28 May 2024 16:39
Actually I think the article is about Barzan buying Iceye products rather than buying the company itself.
If they were offering say, 3bn dollars would be a pretty big payday.
They just raised capital so would be no pressure to accept a lowball bid.
Before the last round they were still classed as a soonicorn so under 1bn valuation. It's not clear whether there was an increase on the valuation with the latest round.
Last year's revenue was 100m dollars and they could easily double that this year as their core business is selling satellites to countries, which cost a few million a time.
They have been accelerating their launch programmes due to significant demand.
Paywalled article on a Lebanese defence analysis website claims that there's a potential bid for satellite business Iceye from a company linked to the Qatari ministry of defence.
I am not sure how likely this could be to complete as a number of governments including the US rely on Iceye's satellites so there would likely be objections based on strategic interests.
Iceye US could probably be carved off though. No doubt the Qataris have the cash.
https://www.tacticalreport.com/daily/62759-qatar-barzan-holdings-iceye-and-acquisition-talks
Started: W13Ken, 27 May 2024 15:28
Last post: Peterrr, 27 May 2024 20:54
Ken I don't know if cancelling the reserve is a good, bad or inevitable thing. I assume it gets applied against the accumulated losses, meaning Softbank are more likely to buy the company as a going concern. Their days of over spending on acquisitions have gone, but hopefully there will enough left over to give Molten a feed.
Started: steph, 27 May 2024 06:16
Last post: steph, 27 May 2024 06:16
On year end results June 12th we should have some positive forward guidance and with that upgrades in broker 12 month targets.
I’ve pencilled in 20% per annum NAV/share upgrades going forward so June 2025 806, June 2026 984 (back to our June 2022 level), June 2027 1207 and June 2028. 1468.
Soon as market accepts NAV/share going up steady and at this rate we wil trade at NAV/share or slightly higher so acceleration of SP wil outpace NAV/share upgrades.
Will be a great 4 years (following a 4 year dip in achieving NAV/share of 984). Portfolio has grown organically into that NAV/share even with little improvement in multiples. Like a coiled spring we might jump if multiples recover somewhat.
Started: stargate, 24 May 2024 19:10
Last post: stargate, 24 May 2024 19:10
The technical chart on lse, still shows the data to Thursday, yesterday. However what would have otherwise been a bearish weekly reversal bar, on the one year chart, was cancelled with the close today above the preceding weekly bar high, and the close of 329, which is above the open of 328, for the week. A conventional bearish reversal bar, would occur when the high is higher than the preceding price bar high and the close, is lower than the previous bar close, in which case the low of 314, would have constituted the support level. DYOR.
Started: steph, 23 May 2024 07:24
Last post: steph, 23 May 2024 07:25
Markets like stability and Labour is now the party of economic stability. 1/100 chance of the Tories making it back.
All signs point to a pretty exciting 3 years for our SP. Maybe a quick recovery from the oversold position we have now and towards something more sensible -even if not optimistic.
When GROW went public in 2016 and then joined the FTSE what should have happened in theory was that retail investors and funds who do not invest directly in unlisted tech would pay above the last round prices and the SP would trade at a consistent premium to NAV/share as the rate of growth (20% or so) would be unavailable elsewhere.
What we got was the above premium half the time and a continued dependency on the same type of funds that can and do invest directly in many of the unlisted assets GROW owns. Those funds will never pay much of a premium to NAV/share as they can buy the underlying assets directly -although they would need to wait for the next funding round to do so and don’t tend to buy into the seed funds GROW use for round A info.
I suspect once we recover the market will accept that the discount to NAV we had was overdone and will not repeat the discount at that level next crisis. A dip in NAV/share from circa 940 to circa 660 was plenty enough for a fast growing portfolio with few if any actual bankruptcies to average in. There was no need at any point for a discount above 30% for our SP.
From here I think we have a lot of hidden value that will drive very fast NAV/share growth over the next 3 years. I don’t see any problems reaching and exceeding our previous high of September 2021. We avoided frothy valuations on the whole an have been growing the portfolio organically ever since September 2021.
Good luck all
Last post: Alas_Smith, 18 May 2024 10:00
There is an interesting article published by KPMG, which although does not mention GROW is giving an upbeat future for Private Equity investment that has been in the doldrums. The contention seems that activity will begin to rise as dry powder accumulated over the last couple of years will be put to work.
https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/uk/pdf/2024/03/uk-economic-outlook-2024.pdf
Long run I expect this to be a better store of value than it has been for last 2.5 years with a favorable relationship between volatility and growth. IN other words the least possible volatility on the maximum growth potential.
We are not there yet but I think in time with market familiarity with our retail wrapper and history on our side we will emerge as a relatively safe way to take a punt on a fast growing segment of the economy. Some volatility of late not structural. Just difficulty in understanding a new asset class in times of stress. First time round over correction down.
Started: Sangijuelas1, 13 May 2024 20:47
Last post: Sangijuelas1, 16 May 2024 16:11
And again. Not a reliable partner. Just wanted to find a way to get out of Forward
What a surprise!
In common with you, Gettingthere67, today, I too have added some shares. Always nice to average up.
I sincerely hope that you ignore my drivel, ripley94. Aside from being just another herbert with a portfolio built over decades, I am pretty binary with my picks where either spectactularly right or hopelessly wrong.
These days, I tend to make fewer mistakes but my average bargain these days is many times greater than when I started. Although the % loss may be the same, any £££’s written off is always disappointing.
Anyway, markets are gaining in confidence and, with particular thanks to steph, I have a better understanding of GROW than the research which I had made.
Alas_Smith posts made me have a look , do not recall coming across this share before but found this note on main broker acc.
"Primary Bid inc placing @ 800 14th June "
No year 2021?
Certainly share price has been perky this month. The 5 year chart suggests this to be a good time to invest.
FWIW, my wife and I had the review yesterday with the team that look after our discretionary account. We discussed our risk as we are the only one of their clients close to or who are retired to have our risk set to high. It is an easy point to address. We want our portfolio to last us through our retirement, which could be for 30 years or perhaps even longer. This is sufficiently long term where it is sensible to have a higher exposure to risk that could be reduced once we are in our 80's to medium as that might simply have a 10 year or so horizon.
Anyway, bear markets tend to last no more than 18 months im my experience and bull runs for 5 years. We are in a bull run and thus we should have very decent growth and can afford to accept the volatility that a higher risk profile has for capital growth investors.
Added some more shares here today.
Very glad I re-bought here recently!