The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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Not much point arguing with the closed minded, but worthwhile reminding them of the score. Since the monotonous rants started, the market has moved the shares 50% higher on decent volume. Happy Christmas everyone :)
1. They have already come out and said in March this year that they need to raise the $50m by end of 2022 - this is where 'reading and comprehension' skills come handy.You write as if this is new information
2. They don't need to say they are assessing alternatives 14 months before the capital raise
3. Since the 2 major shareholders control more than 50% of the equity, they will also have to participate in the raise to avoid dilution.The only reason they want to do another raise is to dilute minority again.But they could have done it in the last raise if they wanted to....
Go sip on you champagne or whatever your poison of choice
Of course they’re going to say ‘we’re assessing if any alternative exists to the capital raise, blah blah’ if they just came out and said we will be raising $50m next year as per our debt deal then this is un-investable until that happens. So they’ve thrown out a little bit of hope to investors that it won’t happen. Problem is if they don’t raise they breach the covenants again and they’ll still be in the creek without a paddle. It’s called trying to get the sp up so it doesn’t hurt as much, hence why you all get nasty when its mention $50m…..shssssss keep it quiet and we might pull some gullibles in. Anyway signing off, have a good Christmas one and all.
Good....precisely how I feel when I see your name at the beginning of any post....
Only read the first sentence then got bored
As a reminder, we are in December 2021....just in case you have been indulging in the festivities.
"So you think they’ll sort the $50m the last week of 2022? " -Since your attention span drops beyond the first paragraph,here it is from their 1H update issued in October: " The Group is also currently assessing if secondary alternatives to the equity raise exist to prevent the issuing of warrants if the second tranche of equity is not placed by the end of 2022. This initiative is supported by the opportunity to significantly reduce leverage levels, through improvements in underlying trading results driven by the positive outlook." To answer your shallow question: they are already working on this, and they have a 12month runway to sort it out in an environment of improving operations.Unless you expect them to sort it out right now.
The idea is to hold a small position in your portfolio,not bet the farm on this,as mentioned in the video yesterday. And man I hope you are not doing this exhaustive due diligence to invest £1k!
“Monotonous rants”.. indeed.. Perhaps amtech’s credibility would be enhanced if he at least attempted to understand why the market has moved 50% against him on high volume, rather than just blindly repeating the same words each visit. ATB
So you think they’ll sort the $50m the last week of 2022? It’ll be before then without doubt. What other way can they raise the funds? Only another restructure, borrowing is out the question as that’s what got them into this mess.
Oh boy....your monotonous rants have become boring - suggest you to invest in reading and comprehension skills!
Not all planets need to be aligned. However, since you brought the point of all planets being aligned,look back at their 2015 results to get an idea of the potential when all planets are aligned : $140m in EBITDA and $75m in net income - and add some to it because they have 2 more vessels now.If this happens,this will be another Deutsche/ZIM Shipping type story and the stock price would be in the 40-50p range
Moving on,they need to get the utilization right which they are working on if you look at the contract wins (why I feel you can't read or comprehend).The $50m raise is a year away and they have already said they are looking at alternatives to this - banks likely to be supportive when they see that debt has dropped by $100m from 2020 to 2022.The Mazroui family has piled into this stock with almost an equal shareholding as SF.The management has to screw up big time to push this down the drain this time.Or another drop in oil price resulting in demand drop.
Having said that, the risk is the controlling shareholding structure, not the operations. My 2 cents
So going on the video/analysis then basically all the planets need to align plus $50m has to be found from somewhere within a year or it’s curtains. Anyone got a 300 mile long sofa that they can stick their hand down to help them out ?
Indeed. The positive news continues to flow :)
2 additional contacts....currently working on 85% capacity with increased margin, and forecast to report first yearly profit for the first time since 2016.....all looking good for 2022 and beyond.
@ Contra Cheers for the share. Was a good summary. Company is a high risk play on the oil market which could get wiped out if they have to raise 50m by the end of 2022. Interesting to discuss the potential upside, they really need much better utilisation and day rates for their E class vessels. I am still a bull on oil so think that there is a chance they can turn this ship around. I was actually unaware of the connections of the new CEO with Seafox and wonder what that means for any potential upside as surely Seafox would be interested in another bid if GMS were to get deeper into trouble.
Did he say something negative, judging by the price drop today....
Portfolio Matters podcast on GMS: https://youtu.be/SNY1ff_tvFE
someone in a rush to exit before christmas.1million plonked @ 5p
Nemo, I am awarding u ur stripes for long time service to gms! Merry Xmas and a prosperous new year
Merry Xmas ! We will hit 8.5p I’m March and 13.5p in July! I will then be handing over the controls to vest Bon and mr Warren Buffett to steer us to 18p!! We will all be very rich my friends
thinking he is out for christmas holidays already. Perhaps by 2022 christmas....
Tortoise it is....
You must be well under water Nemo…..I’ll get my coat
Nemo we are going to ride this tortoise like zorro to 18p!!!!
As a loooong term investor in GMS one thing that cheers me is the tightening of supply with regards to vessels. From my experience, which even goes back as far as 1986 which was a truly awful year in O&G, they difference between adequately supplied and under supplied is often only a few vessels.
When times are tough like they have been for the last few years the 'sales guys' always try to get the best deals they can but the clients normally hold all the cards, and it's hard to turn down a multi-year contract even if the rates are poor - because a working vessel that more or less covers it's costs is better than stacking. Hence we see some of the recent announcements that options with NOC's have been extended at only slightly improved date rates.
Once the slack disappears from the market, and it WILL, the suppliers start to hold all the cards. Things that the supplier was stuck with paying like; fuel, crew change, standby, etc can be passed on to the customer. So, it's only a matter of time before the improved day rates and other charges reach the bottom line.
Mcatee - I think we are less rocket ship and more tortoise but we all know who wins that race in the end, but I'd be delighted to be proved wrong and if it goes to 18p in the not too distant future I for one would be laughing all the way to the bank. Keep the faith people.
18p now! You forgot the link