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"How laughable is broad fords comments that GKP oil is not wanted !!!!
He never has had a good word or comment on the GKP board since his pal Tony left
GLA LTH the Guy is pure comedy"
Opulentia, if you cannot take the price volatility that comes with being invested in a stock that has a speculative risk rating, why don̛'t you invest in lower risk stocks with less share price volatility e.g. Unilever, a large cap stock with pricing power from owning branded, arguably ,must-have unhealthy ultra processsed foods? We are a price-taker in a host country that does not pay on time and which controls everything we can do. What is wrong with Broadford̛'s posts? He is one of the more knowledgeable posters. You seem to want to shut down all bearish posters. I have not sold a single share since all the purchases I made for a relative in April and May 2020, although I have a book loss due to inheriting from that relative at a later higher death price, and have recently added more for a different relative at 99.9 something pence. I have no idea if this will double on a favourable outcome from the pipeline reopening or will plummet on becoming a binary litigation play dependent on shareholders for funds. All outcomes seem within the realms of possibility. I hope for a favourable one though. Why don̛'t you stick to safer stocks instead of trying to shut down posts you don̛'t like?
"Nearly every post is a rampantly ramp, never have i seen a post urging caution or announcing you have sold or reduced. "
Yup, no clue Opu. I wonder how his partner feels about being stuffed with stock a lot higher up. Still together?
"The majority of future revenue therefore will be realised in the local market"
I certainly hope this isn't the case. If so, I'd be out.
CCC
That the post of the day could not agree more
Afternoon Opti, see you have decided to grace us with your expertise once again after nearly a year out of posting.
Be careful in accusing others of " comedy gold posts ".
Hows all those buys in GKP, GENL over a year ago doing? and i must raise with you the complete calamity of COPL which you were daily ramping away and telling everyone to buy buy buy like you said you were doing 14p and above.
Nearly every post is a rampantly ramp, never have i seen a post urging caution or announcing you have sold or reduced.
Your were telling all that you were buying GKP a year ago and don't panic as oil will be flowing a a couple of months.
I am sorry to say you come with a health warning.
Stop talking nonsense Broadfraud … For clarity and generally speaking, oil with a higher API commands better prices however when API is too high the molecular chains become shorter and less valuable to refineries. Heavy crude plays a very important part in blending.
How altruistic of people to buy GKPs unwanted and worthless crude to keep them in business all these years.
The usual pony written by certain posters with an agenda, lol.
So, nobody wants our Oil :( ….. maybe BAR-Z Energy will take it off our hands for a few $s a bbl.
As if !
How laughable is broad fords comments that GKP oil is not wanted !!!!
He never has had a good word or comment on the GKP board since his pal Tony left
GLA LTH the Guy is pure comedy
Appreciate the input! On the topic of API-blend: how did all the IOCs + Kirkuk manage to send oil at the same time for years, considering the difference in API. (I recognize there's a difference - I'm just not simply savvy enough understanding how it works coming to the pipeline).
Although not all lines inside of Iraq has been repaired just yet, the ITP on Turkey side still holds 1.6million barrel/day capacity as per original design. From my understanding, the KRI pipes (and there are several) to Peshkabur is still intact - but the domestic Iraqi's are not. Assuming everything is repaired, can they co-feed the ITP from several sources? From my understanding, NOC doesn't have 1.6m b/d capacity nor that ambition.
Are you saying that all GKP/DNO/SNM sales will continue to be local via trucking, even though the PSCs are either honoured or transferred and exports are restarted? If that's the case, that's huge. Haven't read that take just yet.
Thanks
As putup tangentially says, the future will be no reflection of the past.
Do not forget that, as SOMO are now in the driving seat and seem determined to reintroduce the Kirkuk Export Blend, only a fraction of Shaikan's output can be accommodated in that blend (it's simply too heavy and pulls down the export blend API). The majority of future revenue therefore will be realised in the local market - with consequences for agreeing the FDP and associated large Capex projects. Note also that SOMO and NOCo will, to a great extent, now determine how that FDP will look, with the MNR relegated to a subsidiary role.
@alexeliasson I recommend you do some work understanding the CRP and it's depletion. You will have a better understanding of just what generated the free cash flow (available for dividends) in the past versus what can happen going forward in a reopening scenario. ATB
My model currently values GKP at £1.08 on local sales forever and with current cash at $90 mill.
Apparently I'm unable to post links.
According to company guidance we're looking at ~$40m of FCF this year (lower end) and thus the net cash position should reach at least $120m by year end. With that in mind, I do believe we're looking at dividends already in Q3 this year; 10-14% of market cap can be distributed and they will be in the same financial position as when the year started.
If we look at the years 2021 and 2022 their realised oil price was $49 and $74 respectively, and production hovered at 40-44k bop/d. That was sufficient to produce $122m and $266m respectively. In a reopening scenario, it's hard to envision anything less than +50% dividend yield in 2025. GKP will probably earn more in FCF in 2025 than its entire enterprise value going into the year 2025. Wild stuff, to be honest.
On the other hand, the ITP might be shut-in forever or contracts heavily renegotiated to the downside.
With that in mind, I consider GKP being one of the best risk/return cases available in the market.
Are my numbers similar to yours? Let me know. Cheers
Hi gents,
Entered GKP in the mid 90's a couple of weeks back. Sharing an excerpt from my sheet below: building my numbers on company guidance for 2024 and then using equity research consensus for 2025 and 2026. Not only does it look really cheap, the case works even if the ITP is shut-in permanently. IMHO.
Link: [LINK REMOVED]