Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Back to my buying range, happy to oblige, its only going one way over the next few months , and its far North of here, imo
GLA roll on October for the real re-rate to begin if not before
Good post. So in simple terms GKP should keep all the 11m they are collecting monthly until the whole 151m is offset. It might not need balls as might already have been agreed.
Let's see.
104p hit wouldn't be surprised if we hit 90s today !!
Balls
An issue was raised last night that I didn’t deal with. So let’s deal with it now.
I stated that GKP are owed $151m. And i proposed offsetting it against delinquent debt.
PUTUP’s reply was:-
‘Why would they offset something they’re entitled to against something they’re owed?’
And here’s the problem with that response as per the OpUp of 9/8/23 by JH and the Board:-
‘Outstanding receivables of $151 million net are owed to the Company for the months of October 2022 to March 2023 on the basis of the KBT pricing mechanism.’
PUTUP continually conflates the PSC and its operational mechanics with how the PSC is interpreted in the published financial statements. Statements which crucially influence investor opinion.
The simple truth is we are owed $151m NET by the KRG, whatever the reasons.
And GKP have received NO money in the last twelve months from them.
In fact GKP suffered a $14m impairment in their half year results as a consequence of their financial need to recognise that delinquent debt. And that took GKP into a small loss. If they don’t do something about that, the impairment requirement alone will grow until the delinquent debt of $151m is covered in accounting terms. As well as the reduction in GKP’s future bank balance because they don’t receive the money.
So profit compression to offset delinquent debt and consequent and continual impairments as well as reduced FCF. Happy days…future profits are compromised even if we continue on the new trajectory. Good oh…like it wasn’t hard enough as it is.
And that needs dealing with. The simple answer is offset.
Who cares about PSC contractual obligations right now? Certainly not the KRG and the other acronyms. And anyone who continues to play by the rules that the KRG are not recognising is dreaming of a better world.
In Kurdistan? Really?
In general management terms JH MUST stop the cash bleed.
Offset is the way forward even if it is confrontational, (ref. C0ckeye). GKP needs to conserve its cash in these troubled times. And it mustn’t rely on its contractual allies to join in. Because they’re not.
PUTUP is a financial analyst. And a good one. But he relies on that detailed analysis and maybe doesn’t really understand the translation of his analysis into publicly reported financial statements.
Or maybe he does (I think so), but that takes us down a very different posting and motive route.
Because the fact is that the PSC must be translated into accounting language that other investors can understand. And take investment decisions on.
And that has nothing to do with the mechanisms of the PSC.
It’s all about accounting precedents and a common form of reporting financial performance in an understandable format. For ‘informed’ investment purposes.
And I reckon PUTUP knows that.
So GKP are owed $151m. And JH has to come up with a plan to get it back.
All I’m arguing is that offset is a simple remedy.
As long as JH has the
Got to start crude flows at minimum rate, not any high rates at all and we would have plenty of recycle on the feed pumps.
This is because the line when it becomes completely hydraulically full with liquid moving forward with exert a forward thrusting pressure head of at least 3 times the supply pressure which can burst lines.
Remember what's in the line is in effect a product mix and has been sat in the hot sun all summer, so wouldn't be surprised to find many gas pockets within the line which will most certainly cause pressure surges and hence the need for min fill rates. Really is no gain for rushing this process and must be done steadily.
Hope this explains things.
Looks like they’re losing their touch, as it’s taken 2.5 hours and only managed to walk the price down by a few pence. In the old days we had tree shakes with 3-4 x this volatility
Is the pipeline not primed? I wouldn't have thought it was empty
Kirkuk oil pipeline is 950km long. Oil flows at rate of max 300km a day. So if testing flow has started oil will appear at Ceyhan in about a week at full flow. Hmm... tick follows tock.
We won’t see 90p
All we need is 1 news leak of pipeline open date confirmed and you will see 150p to 200p minimum easily
I am taking today’s action as a top up or buying opportunity
Last 5 days GKP is up 18%
Last 1 month GKP is up 2%
Hold for gold.
The two hedge funds which are currently short have about 2.6m shares. Let’s say they went short at £1.10p. Even if they manage to take the price down to 50p they would make about £1.6m. Now that is a lot of money for us PIs but peanuts for this hedge funds. They are using the shares to suppress the share price so they can keep buying at a cheap price.
At some point they will have loaded up and this share price can then move forward.
GKP are making £3.5m net profit with the pipeline closed. What do you think will happen to the share price when the pipeline is open?
As usual dyor and Atb to true shareholders here
Not really, markets only been open just over an hr and down 1.5%. I think the shorts are gonna be fkked. I won’t shed a tear.
There you go the shorts win the day again 90s here we come .
Always sell on news with GKP.
No wurries grandad
Can't see a rise today GKP just doesn't do that as history tells us !!
105p finish and back into the 90s by Friday.
Shorts have increased remember and they normally win the day.
They will want this in the low 90s to close ..
Let the games begin.
The next RNS will be either pipeline open or 45kbopd local sales achieved
I feel we may hit 115p to 120p today
Yesterday we had some big and strong buys
The pressure is on to open the pipeline
@unwin - what are 'u' a five year old? yeah ile buy on might do's, could's do's, should do's, nothings changed and nobody here knows any different. Can easily drop further!
Don’t be an itsaponzi and be more adventurous.
https://ukinvestormagazine.co.uk/gulf-keystone-petroleum-shares-look-good-value-for-adventurous-investors/
I like this “ The company is reasonably well-capitalised as a result of the cost-cutting exercise and securing local crude sales. As of 30th August 2023, Gulf Keystone has cash balances of $82m and no debt. Cash was $80m earlier in August.”
No idea when the pipe is going to open but £3.5m net profit a month is not to be sniffed at.
Gkp said in the investor presentation that 42k bopd is the maximum they can sell via trucking. Now that crude is getting delivered by pipe to a refinery this limit will no longer apply.
Obviously these guys are playing with other people's money !!
Will gkp drop tomorrow 5% absolutely it will but being short is a brave call ..
The RNS told you not to be ..
Just winding you up P...:)
Look at the size of the after hours trades!!!!
Putting everything into the pipeline is excellent news, raking in about 350K dollars per day as their share is also good numbers and significantly changes things with this stock .
I would support company expenditure in additional tankage which normally has a water draw off facility.
If we are supplying a refinery direct they should have de-salting and water draw off facilities as standard.
Gone now are a lot of going bankrupt worries and more likely to see a fair bit of company wealth while we await resumption of main export flows.
The fact that GKP are now getting customers for significant quantities of crude will be a shot across the bows for those hoping to squeeze extra monetary advantage by crude exports to Turkey. Things are most certainly looking up for the patient shareholders here , and I'm happy to beholding a strong position. Going to be a good end to this year.
what we really need is the owner of the refinery to be a shareholder in gkp and bulletproof wrt kurdistan politics. maybe the uhnwi could give him a few to bring him into the game.
transfer our 36% to our account.
transfer mol’s share to their account.
transfer the krg’s share to our account and we divi it up with mol until the missing payments are wiped out.
job’s a good ‘’un - as explained in “the art of co**** finance in corrupt countries” , available on kindle 99c today only.
"and offset against year old debt (!)"
Why would they offset something they're entitled to against something they're owed? They're due both.