George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
It's always been about screwing the Kurds. The IOCs are merely collateral damage.
Shame its the wrong pipeline for GKP
Thank you for this @otmansalamat and those who share things.
I think this and recent news confirms ICG approach is firmly the second option I aired in a previous message: Baghdad to let the KRG pipeline stand, and fully circumvent KRG altogether. While this always was a politically imperative for ICG (to undermine KRG economic-political autonomy), I had thought the US would have an interest in maintaining oil flows through the KRG pipeline.
Yet, especially given that Russia's Rosneft are part-owner of the Kurdish pipeline, it seems the US has an incentive to support (or at least not protest too much about) ICG circumventing KRG pipeline.
"The Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline would effectively allow Baghdad to gain full control of Kurdish oil once it is produced. Baghdad will force foreign oil companies who have contracts with the Kurds to renegotiate with Baghdad to sell their oil through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline instead, which will completely cut the Kurds out and eventually make it impossible for foreign companies to operate there."
I guess we'll get confirmation of this during al-Sudani's visit next week. As far as I know, KDP still boycotting the elections/toys out of the pram. Seems like this is finally getting resolved, the uncertainty shall soon disspitate, and a the new reality will settle in.
The question of "which pipeline" seems close to being answered; next uncertainty in my POV is content of new contracts with ICG.
And, if the KRG pipeline can now be considered out of the picture, what are IOC options for reaching export markets?
Wishing you all the best.
Https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/34558-U.S.-Seeks-to-Broaden-Ties-with-Iraq,-as-PM-Sudani-Makes-First-Visit-to-Washington
Generally the more complexity a refinery is the heavier slate it can process at increasing profitability. For example reliance in India must have profits soaring through the roof currently. It had a complexity index (nelson rating), only second place in the world. It loves a very heavy slate like ours, and is currently binging on discounted Russian crude which its mixing then using the refined products to complete in Europe.
Our heavy crude is very valuable and any small discount it is sold at is pure profit the the big refiners. Such heavy crudes have more complex longer chain hydrocarbons which can be cracked . polymerised and converted to very valuable products indeed often with a 2000% mark up, from the original crude price ton for ton. I certainly believe our crude is being trucked out of the country because the margins fordoing so are excellent. We know who will be behind these operations and one of the reasons why there is a local heavy crude shortfall resulting in higher local prices.
Don’t be fooled by him as that’s exactly what he’s doing too
Here we go again, price goes down and Itsaponzi can’t resist the chance to have a sadist’s joyful experience at the expense of GKP shareholders.
But the fact is shares rarely go up in straight lines. The ‘buy on the rumour’ traders pushed the price up buying to 127 then the profit takers sold and the price dropped. Just as I expected and I sold my day trade @126.
This was what I expected when I purchased that day trade on the preceding Friday on the likelihood of positive news re. U.S. visit and Erdogan Baghdad visit ( if it actually happens) as those two events have yet to happen I’ll keep an eye on the price and if I’m lucky ponzi’s prediction of doom lower doom will be correct and I’ll buy that day trade
again and then ‘sell on the news’ when the president / prime minister finally agree
All gains this week wiped out tomorrow!!
Another false dawn with another many more to follow. Surprised the market believed the last load of lies coming out of Iraq. Trade trade that's all this dog is worth doing now.
TF is whoever he/she is.
But it's right that the whole GKP investment proposition depends on continued self-funding, albeit likely under a different guise.
He/she is also right that pricing guidance is critical, and the best start point is Brent crude.
Otherwise, let's just trade and go.
Should read Patience was required But enough Is almost enough
P. S.
Patience was required buy enough us almost enough.
I joined this forum shortly before making my first of numerous purchases of GKP shares @146 almost one year ago. My research had revealed the prospect of volatility which is essential for a share trader. This could have been a ‘long’ day trade but the shares continued to fall and I still own them now along with many more. However, I maintained my buy recommendation that is essential to a longer term part of my portfolio ( if I don’t believe that the shares warrant buying why hold them)
My current hold position however does not merit becoming a sell at his time because I do believe we are in the endgame with more positive short term prospects than negative. That said some compelling negatives do exist and I’ll be ready to jump in either direction in an instant.
The last thing that I would like now is for a dispute that common sense could resolve now to be cast back into the long grass where it has been for the past year. Life’s too short to sit here for very much longer and I for one will move on to my next volatile share opportunity, because that’s what a gamer does.
Is ThomasFousler a parrot?
Do you understand the words "...no direct correlation"?
I don't understand your sentence beginning:
"Secondly, the refiners compete with other local sources of crude; and do you really argue that if that was priced at $120, they would still not pay a single cent more...".
When you say "..if that was priced at $120.." what do you mean by THAT?
I'd like to respond properly to your posting but you're confusing me...
Again, another pretty outrageous comment said with outmost confidence.
First, we know that traders take a substantial of volume from DNO/GKP/SNM and truck it abroad: their ability to price (bid) depends on their ability to sell it abroad.
Secondly, the refiners compete with other local sources of crude; and do you really argue that if that was priced at $120, they would still not pay a single cent more to GKP/DNO/SNM as if local prices was at $40?
To say it doesn't correlate 1:1 is fine, or to say it comes with a lag is fine - but to argue there's no correlation at all to international brent is ludicrous.
Billionaire tribal families like Sleepy Joe's you mean?
This page is hilarious, going on about corrupt states and in English! The Anglo Saxon world is the most corrupt bar none.
China and Russia sort corruption.
UK USA are sewers
I have to agree…. the whole Region is a no-go for serious incoming investment which could be to the benefit of the whole population - due to the criminal and unsustainable greed of a few billionaire tribal families.
Even Sleepy Joe knows what has gone on - and he has to face one of them at next week’s meeting.
Wonder if he’ll lay down the law and get our debts adressed or even paid ??
Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Ticks-Lower-on-EIA-Inventory-Report.html
I just posted this on Genl but relevant to here (although we all know!)
Calling out corruption (genl mentioned)
https://www.diplomaticourier.com/posts/foreign-investment-corruption-risks-iraqi-kurdistan
The refinery yields obtained from processing Tawke, Peshkabir, Swara Tika and Atrush crudes are all very different from that of SH crude and cannot be compared using a simple $/bbl metric as you seem determined to attempt. Sorry, but that's how it is.
You say "...they also sell some volume directly to refiners" - where else do you think they are selling it? Do you think they are paying $15/bbl for trucking it to Ceyhan?
Local prices also fluctuate, no question about that but it's wrong to tie these fluctuations to Brent. If some other local fields were diverting their supplies S to Basrah, as has been reported, that would starve the refineries somewhat and help explain the rise?
Not what I argued, was it? Traders buying from DNO/SNM/GKP have different end markets (and yes, they also sell some volume directly to refiners). Last week, DNO stated that the selling price was up +10% QoQ locally. Can't explain that by looking at prices for Diesel in Iraq, can we?
"PUTUP claiming GKP to be "drastically overvalued at 95p" provides me with a fantastic entry point, and will make for great comedy in a couple of months. "
At no point did I make this claim. Troll.
As I said two days ago (before the latest, short-lived giddiness):
" they received $25 in February when Brent averaged $83.5 a barrel. Clearly the company had to accept a lower price to move greater volume (a strategy which I think is smart as keeping the field ticking over is good). Brent averaged $85.4 in March, up 2.3% on February. We await to see how the company did in March... $35 would be great, but I wouldn't count those chickens yet."
The current share price expects a lot more than local sales
Graph the internal (Iraq) prices for diesel and petrol for the last 10 years against Brent before you spout off...