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Like they haven't had copies of the contracts for months already...
Https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/34611-Turkish-President-to-visit-Iraq-on-April-22
Turkish President Erdogan is scheduled to arrive in Baghdad next Monday, with one of the key agenda items being "natural gas and oil flow," according to his own statement. Several reports suggest that Erdogan not only seeks the resumption of oil exports from the KRG but also aims to secure Kurdistan's natural gas for export to Turkey as soon as possible, especially with apparent U.S. backing.
While Iraq has been preparing to resume oil exports from Kirkuk to Turkey, Erdogan likely prefers resuming exports through the KRG's pipeline, as Turkey has a 50-year contract with the KRG on favorable economic and security terms, with Turkish firms earning over $1 billion annually, in addition to other perks such as holding sway over the KRG's ties with the PKK.
However, Erdogan's interests extend beyond oil to the KRG's natural gas. This would reduce Turkey's dependence on Russian gas for energy consumption and position Turkey as a key gas hub for Europe, substantially increasing its geopolitical clout, in addition to further Turkish influence over the Kurdistan Region.
Erdogan holds several powerful cards against Iraq to push for his demands, the most significant being water. Iraq desperately wants more water from the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, which Turkey has gained substantial control over through the construction of several massive dams.
According to informed sources, the 50-year agreement signed by Nechirvan Barzani with Erdogan in 2014 reportedly includes the following terms:
- Turkish companies operating in the Kurdistan Region will be given priority in the KRG oil sector.
- For the next 50 years, Turkey will receive $1 per barrel of oil sold.
- The KRG's oil revenue will be deposited and exchanged at Turkey's Halk Bank.
- The KRG oil pipeline will be guarded by Turkey, with fees paid from the KRG's oil revenue.
- The KRG will lease seven large oil reservoirs at Turkey's Ceyhan Port, with rent paid from its oil revenue.
- The agreement sets the framework for the KRG's relations with the Syrian Kurdish SDF and the PKK.
- Critics claim the agreement's political dimension is to maintain the KDP's power and continue its leaders' rule in the Kurdistan Region with Ankara's support.
- Unofficial reports suggest the Erdogan family is the primary beneficiary of this agreement's proceeds from the Turkish side.
It looks to me like something is going to happen very soon
Hmmmm - tentatively optimistic, the right people are making the right noises.
So 48 hours after the Biden / Sudani meeting, deals have been done, political barriers have been cleared, and now they get the agreements done....
Oil Minister said that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) will soon re-export oil through the Iraqi Oil Marketing Company (SOMO).... Iraqi Oil Ministry has said it is "necessary" for the KRG to provide copies of contracts with IOCs, so that they can be investigated and adapted to the Iraqi constitution.
https://x.com/john78846295/status/1780649007800275302
Like 2016...
Https://www.rudaw.net/english/business/16042024
Not sure if this has already been posted on here, it all sounds very positive
PS I do agree ALSO on posters stance that GKP are liquid and generating income.
GKP have survived through incredible difficulties times in the past.
Again GLA
rgds Sft
What we have to consider is the % of retail (private) investors that GKP have in relation to institutional and the directors.
Looking at Simpley Wall St
Ownership Breakdown
Employee Share Scheme 0.18% 400,000 shares
Individual Insiders 10.6% 23,630,617 shares
Hedge Funds 14.6% 32,549,217 shares
Institutions 26.3% 58,410,062 shares
General Public 48.3% 107,253,104 shares
Obviously not being sure how many of the 48.3% are on here, but I would imagine the information platforms like Motley fool Simpley Wall Stret, Morning Star etc etc coupled with share specific chat rooms DO have a significant influence, especially when there is a large amount of share held in the retail/ general public hands.
I post on here to pose opinions/ questions ( that's the point of being here) and welcome positive and negative comments. You have to balance the opinions when considering day trading and long term holding.
Several posters on here ( more experienced imo) hold a combination of day trading and longterm but may shift according to precived longterm risk or gain.
Especially with a company that use to provide a very good dividend.
For clarity, I currently day trade GKP BUT did hold a longer term prior, but exited to fund another investment, and came back in in September, then November and January (NOT March unfortunately!)
I am out presently and now remain unsure as to how GPK will pan out but am leaning towards Ponzi thought process and the repairs and planned opening of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, is certainly being used as the latest stick to beat the kurds further down.
GKP has always been an interesting share.
GLA
Rgds Sft
Seems like Isaponz is wrong as usual. Obviously doesn’t put money where the big mouth is and prefers to aim snide comments at others in preference to posting interesting or useful opinions. Clearly in fear that investors with money to spend and the balls to take adult risks might be rewarded. Jealousy.
Personally I’m on hold pending the probability that Erdogan will turn up this time and the leaders of both nations will pretend it’s all sweetness and love via an agreement. We shall see, if not GKP remains cash rich and profitable.
They think they can but Motley foolish writing negative articles will definitely move the share price. Even though its lies like a cheap watch
I'm curious. Do you really think a small bunch of weirdos on here can 'ramp' or move a share price?
Will 108p hold ?
Looking by the selling yesterday I don't think so!! If 105p goes today expect a visit to 97p and if that goes we could see 80s . Over to the rampers from last week.
The pipeline isn't opening that's a fact now . Local sales keep the lights on. GKP will just sit out until the 25th September 2025 it's the only logical thing to do now. Independents baby and no more Iraq.
Remaining at 108/109p no one know which way to jump: Will people go for the safe bet and trigger a slip or is the price set now for the continued income without the PL being open????
Rgds Sft
Situation appears to be continuing ad-infinitum:
Baghdad wants Erbil to give up their semi-autominous status, and get them (Kurd oil fields and revenues) back under their control.
Erbil wants an independent state for the Kurds, and the ruling family will take over fully, if they then can get us annoying little IOCs out, and auction off the oilfields anew to whoever - then think of the signing fees and the scope for the return of fullscale pilferring (without Baghdad interfering for their cuts this time).
Both parties want to collect US aide at all costs (the general population will see none of it, of course).
Nobody wants to pay our overdue debts, naturally.
These reasons are why Akipur has no significant ‘say’ in anything, and are a token attempt at honesty and fairness in a hugely corrupt region.
Thanks for posting Blumagnet,
Knowing that meetings are about to take place, and also knowing full well the already seen strategy of Iraqi officials of blaming everyone bar themselves for deliberate cause of delay, they are clearing going on the record as saying they are fully willing to produce crude oil for export. Asking for their share of payment for crude that has already been sold for doing all the work, is clearly fair in anyone's eyes bar an embezzler.
Just stopping them from trying to blame the IOC's for the delay which they have already attempted to do in the press.
Time for them to come clean which most don't believe they will, while still trying to extort USA dollars for aid, while being the primary cause of hardship.
'By the way, ISIS were a CIA proxy, ie, Israeli proxy. Can you not see the obvious. Blowing up the pipeline was all planned etc etc'
Classic 'white knight' bigotry of low expectation. 'Those silly 'brown people' are so easily manipulated by us that we can get them to do anything, even rampage across the middle east slaughtering tens of thousands cutting off heads as they go'.
Actually, as we saw in Sydney just yesterday with a Assyrian Bishop being stabbed whilst saying Mass, they very much know what they believe and how they intend to go about it.
Rot the gamer, what r u on about, the worm has turned completely.
By the way, ISIS were a CIA proxy, ie, Israeli proxy. Can you not see the obvious. Blowing up the pipeline was all planned etc etc
Everything has changed, and changed utterly here.
Rog, what state do you think the Pesh are in after years on Erbil not receiving funding and public sector workers not being paid?
I agree, push was always going to lead to shove here, and Baghdad will not be able to bring the Kurds fully to their knees for good, but I wouldn't overstate the Kurds capability right now.
The one good thing that came from the weekends attacks on Israel is that there will be zero tolerance of any Iranian militia, even army, crossing the border and assisting Iraqi troops like the once brazen, now liquidised, Qasem Soleimani, did with the retaking of Kirkuk.
Despite the SP movement since, the Iranian 'attack' on Israel, however half hearted, strengthens the KRGs hand.
Well here we are again. It’saponce. Exactly as it was 11 days ago when I purchased a ‘day trade @109 and sold it one market day later with my predicted 15% margin. While this moment in time doesn’t quite feel right as another buying opportunity, as successful trader GKP is my ideal volatile stock ( can’t make much money short term on Aviva / legal and general etc. ) I’m looking for the moment to strike.
As for my core long term holding in GKP, a company that is cash positive and profitable, I’ll sit on that for, within reason, as long as it takes for the value to materialise.
As for the notion in today’s article that the pipeline will never reopen because it has been replaced by the repaired pipe and Iranian influenced politicians want to squeeze and control Kurdistan indefinitely. Can that be a long term position? I’m not so sure because history tells us that the Kurds are proud and strong, they also have a 100k strong fighting force that saved Iraq with Western support from ISiS. The Islamists that blew the now repaired pipeline into a thousand pieces. Can Iraq ‘screw’ the Kurds into submission by economic force for much longer before they have nothing to lose by fighting back, and in that respect the Iraqi armed forces do not have a very good record, quite the reverse and I doubt that they’ll risk a battle that they, or anyone, can win.
Let’s see what happens when Erdogan turns up, if he does.
Patience
The trouble is the Market believes every word of that article.
Hence why GKP is dropping like a stone this morning 90s this week anyone. I wouldn't bet against now .
I hope know one got spiked on that false dawn last week.
Sells after sells at the moment.