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I guarantee you, if you're sat in GKP's boardroom right now 'patience' will be that last item on the Agenda!!
Added by some tragic young attaché who wasn't listening/understanding.
And if it did appear at the bottom of the document as a default, it would be laughed off as a sick joke!!!!
Urgency is the matter consuming the Board right now.
How to secure the next period of production uncertainty by reference to trucked sales. And how to make the most money out of it while protecting the asset from neglect/harm.
Sales, margin, logistics and cost control will be all consuming...I hope.
According to the Iraq Oil Report on Sept 7 Turkey filed a claim against Iraq in the U.S. seeking 957 million relating to the March Paris ruling.
This indicates a lack of agreement Re. the pipeline closure which is no doubt being used as a bargaining tool. While agreements that are in the best interests of both parties will be reached in time, time is passing and there now seems to be no alternative for GKP other than to make the best of the circumstances. In my humble opinion GKP should work on the assumption that the closure is semi permanent and no longer “temporary” in which case they must explore all avenues with regards to selling their maximum level of production possible without further capital expenditure. Selling in any way that they can at the best price obtainable on the best terms that the KRG will agree.
While a solution longer term might be an alternative pipeline I doubt that the Kurds would tolerate the control that Baghdad would have if that direction became their only route of exports / income. Therefore Turkey have the upper hand over the JRG but not Iraq, , in the meantime can we dare to imagine that trucking up to 50k barrels of cut price oil per day might provide a profit that justifies a reasonable dividend that supports the share price while we wait. If so I for one will happily sit on my shares as a long term investment. I
In short Patience isn’t simply required it’s the only option apart from selling, taking a lose and moving on.
Always worth remembering that all these online boards have their fair share of shills, rampers and de-rampers. It is a fact.
Just a reminder the title of the post is 'Placing in a Couple Weeks'. This is nonsense and have to question motives behind making this post.
Some posters seem to be in a permanent state of panic. So have to question their motives.
FH1's assessment is absolutely correct.
Right now there is no prospect of more funding need to support current performance.
Just run the numbers.
And if that changes, it would demand a catastrophic adjustment in trading circumstances on the ground.
In simple Balance Sheet terms, the current position is stabilised for now.
No problem.
And trucking up to 40k bopd is only going to develop GKP's stability.
So here's the thing.
As a Board, they simply have to play what's in front of them.
I feel like I'm banging a drum because I keep repeating the same mantra.
But we should take it easy for now and trust in the Board to keep their nerve and develop their current position.
Guys like PUTUP are in danger of panicking; he doesn't get that the oil will flow.
One thing's for sure. The oil will flow.
And if you have confidence in the Board, they will manage it on our behalf.
Particularly since they're now financially invested by their 20% salary deferments...
Tough times, but as I say, the oil will definitely flow.
Why is asking 'what is the positive' outcome a dumb question? If your claimed investment is based on deep analysis then there must be a positive outcome. Why can't you state what that is?
I hope for a positive outcome. Faith has nothing to do with it. What a dumb ar$e question. How many shares do you own?
Good evening BroadfordBay.
Hope you are well, I do find there is still a handful of very touchy investors who only like to read sugar coated posts.
I suppose a few of us have a little more experience and understanding of looking at all possible outcomes and when it comes to GKP/location/politics etc there is shed loads to think about.
I see my prediction of low 90's / 80's became quickly real with little hope of any turnaround any time soon.
I don't know if you agree or not but the frustrating thing is Gulf could become a good investment if everything is sorted out favourably, but and a big but the political landscape needs wholesale changes with trust driving an new era for all concerned, there lies the issue..........or the main one!
What ever happened to Tony?
If you hold then you must believe in a positive outcome. What is that positive outcome?
"Putup are you sure you are invested in GKP. All your commentary has a negative slant which suggests you are not a holder."
Yes. No it doesn't. I simply prefer to deal in grounded analysis rather than ramping. How many shares do you own?
As a non investor why is BB so concerned? What motivates to write when have nothing to hold or buy? Very dubious agenda?
...and these words will come back to haunt you: "...Have not been supported by Board comments. With 80m in cash there is virtually no risk."
You need to open your eyes
In the presentation the Board did not talk about placing. They mentioned that there was an extreme risk in the event that all local sales were stopped and and in that event they would reduce capital spending to increase capital by up to 2ml. So BB comments are scaremongering and have not been supported by Board comments. With 80m in cash there is virtually no risk. More to the point is whether BoD will pay KRG given they are owed 150m. Based on comments it seems likely they will not be paying KRG as they are being paid cash in hand and have little obligation to pay. KRG have not said they are challenging this and are fearful of a UK court case.
Putup are you sure you are invested in GKP. All your commentary has a negative slant which suggests you are not a holder.
It has already been clearly stated that SOMO will be responsible for the future sale and marketing of Kurdish crude, and NOCo will be responsible for the further technical development of the Kurdish fields – knitting them in with the future development of all Iraq O&G fields. NOCo will, of course, take local advice and knowledge into account in any KRI field development planning.
The point being, there is currently NO leaked overview of what such NOCo:KRI field development plans might include.
Until we have such knowldge It is foolish in the extreme to assume that any of the smaller independents have enough cash (or will have enough generated by local sales at silly prices) to deal with such unknown capital committments / Capex demands.
The fact that the possibility of a further capital raising was even mentioned is an indication that this is of major concern to the companies.
It should be of concern that the possibility of 3 or 4 operators going to the capital markets, yet again and all within a similar timeframe (and following such a value-destroying period) would be seen in a very negative light by the debt market.
4 might become 2…
Interesting article in Middle East Eye spelling out the dispute between Turkey and Iraq.
Seems Iraq jumped the gun to make a claim for the 1.4bln ICC award. But have missed the detail which Turkey have put forward explaining that when the full ICC is taken into account going back to 1973 then it is Iraq that actually owe 900+m to Turkey.
All of this should have been settled out of court. Dumbest thing is that Iraq has blocked the oil and revenue damage of 5bln. The Iraq lawyers should be fired for sheer incompetence.
Given the appalling history of Iraqis against Kurds this just rubs salt into wounds.
Even if the court case proceeds the pipeline should be opened immediately to max revenue and payments handled based on what is settled. Surely common sense should prevail.
Yep, 1382 posts, and only wrong once, when I bought those useless shares.
The truth often hurts,
When Brent reaches a point that Erdogan can no longer withstand the international political pressure. At the moment, he’s putlers fluffer but, he can’t keep that up much longer, he’ll need to get off his knees, scoop up his pride and get back to making real money.
When will the pipeline open?
A by the end of October after Erdoğan visit
B after October but by 31st December
C Some time in 2024?
JAdams
I’m not sure if you read the RNS correctly or you’re able to interpret what they were trying to communicate. The mention of external financing was the last on the list of options to retain liquidity. Only if: local sales, cost reductions and inventory sales have failed will they look to bolster the balance sheet with external finance. They were quite clear that: there is demand for Shaikan crude and current sales volumes are adequately coving costs. That alone will keep the wolves from the door but, with active austerity, the potential to increase sales and $80 million cash at bank, they have no requirement to go cap in hand to anyone at this time or anytime soon. The phrase is there because they want to be seen to be in control of a going concern, if it’s needed, it’s an option. Right now it isn’t.
If you're looking to get out, it would make sense if you talked the share price up, as you doom and gloom it, it makes more sense that you want the price to be lower, or maybe you are another misery loves company FUD let's have an argument you will see I'm right poster (surely not). They have finance options in place, there's no need for a share issue 💤💤💤
So why did they mention external financing then.
It’s so there’s no massive shock when the placing rns hits our screens
" Unless you think the business is failed and you just want out..."
No, it's mainly because I think further investment in Shaikan should be stopped until all arrears are paid and the contractual and legal situation fully settled with clear and stable route to market. We can't continue like this with a new crisis unfolding at every turn.
Meanwhile, risk takers must get rewarded, handsomely.
Best Regards ValueS
If a positive cash flow of any kind exists it should be returned to shareholders. Let the price stay at 70, 80, 90 p for 10 years, but at minimum return the 20/25 million annually.
ValueS,
I get the present direction of travel, as tenuous as it is.
I'm taking a position based on the sales possibilities, which are uncertain.
GKP can, to some extent, contain the costs.
The selling opportunities are a very different challenge.
Both the local interest in buying, and, much more importantly, the short term margins.
Why would we give back capital to shareholders right now when it may well be needed to shore up the Balance Sheet?
Unless you think the business is failed and you just want out...