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Hi,
I remember seeing somewhere that there was a deadline of 30 trading days left for the 5% to be agreed? Has this deadline not come and gone by now?
Thanks
Once fee agreed/announced by independent body.
Newcrest have 30 days from the date that the figure is either agreed or arbitrated on to take up the offer.
In theory they have 12 months from the date that they indicated to GGP that they wanted the 5% so that's December 15th this year, but I would think that could be pushed out if agreement isn't reached by then.
ATB - Paddy
If I was SD I'd tell them to sling their hook if there's been no agreement by 15th December. Pay up or don't.
Hi Paddy, someone on TG has received an email reply that there isn't a date that the option must be concluded by once initiated, going past 12 months or the date within which they had to initiate the option won't result in there being a termination of the process, it will run to it's full conclusion now.
@JudgeDred - You're confusing 30 days for NCM to consider the 'price tag' that the process will conclude with mate.
It appears that currently both parties remain more than 20% apart so Shaun has suggested that he thinks that arbitration is probably going to commence soon for a 3rd party to be appointed decide which of the two submitted valuations is closer to FMV And becomes the price tag for NCM to consider paying within 30 days.
In theory IMO it should be completed within a few months and certainly Shaun thinks it is a matter of months not years, but of course we have very little visibility and idea of how long arbitration will take. So frankly, hard to make any concrete assumptions.
Hi Paddy,
I was in touch with SD. Unfortunately he confirmed that the 12 months from December 2021 was for NCM to issue their intention to exercise the 5% offer. As they have done that, the 12 months is now a moot point.
I had a slim hope that if negotiations were protracted beyond December 2022, that the option would lapse and GGP would retain the 5%, but unfortunately not.
Ah yes - it was you JC - sry mate, couldn't remember off the top of my head!
Jamesp21
Totally agree! If Biswas is still dikin' us about come December then we'll just keep the 5%.
If we need more cash then maybe have a chat with Franco-Nevada (we already know they WON'T like that!)
Hi JC & Dipp - thanks for the clarification. I guess it makes sense that there wouldn't be a time limit on the resolution of the negotiations. If they spend 12 months on it then another few won't matter.
The only good thing being that if it goes past Q4 this year then Newcrest's MRE3 and DFS will have been published and that would have to have a substantial bearing on the worth of the 5% - even if not the reserves calculation, it surely would on the potential exploration upside.
Anyway - I have faith in Shaun and the board/team that he has assembled - they are a crack team and they haven't come to GGP to just while away the hours. They believe that they are going places and will be doing everything in their power to bring us all along with them.
ATB - Paddy
I was reading more about the 5% the other day,tThis is my current understanding of it:
Newcrest exercised their right to 5% mid Dec 2021
Both parties had a couple months to work on a figure and come back to one another mid Feb 2022
Both figures were compared mid Feb and weren't within 20% of each other (originally the RNS said 10% but Shaun said it was moved to 20)
The numbers are now passed on to an independent expert (alongside I assume some proof of work) one of the figures is going to be chosen as representing fair value. SD didnt want to give a timeframe on this
SD said of the updated MRE "Yes, effectively takes us up to Dec 05 2021 drill results and assays" so I take it that will be included in GGPs given number
SD also said the number was "deeply conservative" apparently Newcrests was even deeper if its not even within 20%.
Same here Paddy, I kept neutral after Shaun started as really not one for hero worship of anyone inc. Gervaise but I've liked the fact Shaun's had a coherent and achievable vision and roadmap for GGP since what I jokingly call his 'Summer Of Love' tour in 2021. Very keen on the team in place and very impressed with how they kicked into action and got the JORC compliant but far less conservative GGP MRE in place so strategically and rapidly after NCM's decision to delay their update.
Fellow PI's should listen to Shaun more closely, how often has he talked about the investment in personnel in such disciplines around geology, mining, finance and processing to enable a better understanding and ownership of Havieron, we've seen it pay off already. In the future we will have a readiness in place for developing and operating an asset ourselves whether it is through exploration and success in our existing portfolio or an acquisition.
I'm of a mind that we may hopefully see arbitration completed before the DFS is published as that only adds to the evidence for a higher valuation and surety of going into production surely as will NCM's MRE update due soon. IMO NCM may as well let this play out and pay the resulting price and get on with focusing on other pressing matters across their own portfolio of assets. I absolutely can not see them choosing not to purchase the 5% whether ours or their valuation comes out as nearer FMV and Shaun seems very certain they will be buying the 5% and he knows more than we do.
What will be interesting and IMO a very good indicator of future intentions by NCM is how their behaviour is after the 5% concludes, we'll see if we get a rapid return to structural alignment or not.
We live in interesting if somewhat testing times :-))
Thanks gentlemen, hopefully sooner than later we can settle this 5% issue.
SD did say that he thought the 5% would be resolved in months rather than years. I think he said it in one of his video interviews.
Q
link to join GGP TG group please? Or can I have an add please
He did say that profquartermass id like to think it’ll be sorted in the next few weeks, before the next quarterlies at least!