Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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For reference, and as I posted on the 8th August, here is what was posted a year ago, which may be useful as to what to expect shortly..
In looking forward, it's sometimes useful to look back...
Last year we had the following:
Full Year Results FY19
16th August 2019
“We continued to invest in growth during the year, gaining exposure to another operating asset, the Red Chris mine
in Canada. Our plan is to improve the current operating performance and, subject to drilling and further study,
transform Red Chris into a Tier One operation by means of block caving. We also gained access to a promising
prospect in the Havieron deposit which, subject to drilling and further study, could considerably improve the
profitability and extend the life of Telfer....”
...First drill results from the Havieron Project in Paterson Province Western Australia have confirmed the presence of
higher grade copper-gold mineralisation, with best results including 17m @ 21g/t Au and 0.39% Cu from 1,153m
(HAD006 extension).
https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2019-10/190816_Newcrest%20Full%20Year%20Results%20-%20Market%20Release.pdf
Newcrest Briefing Book
16th August 2019
Havieron – Opportunity for Telfer
• Farm-in agreement on the Havieron tenement
with potential to deliver high grade ore feed to
Telfer
• Newcrest to manage the exploration program
• $5m minimum commitment over initial 12 months,
with potential to earn 70% JV interest through
expenditure of $65m over a 6 year period
• Option to earn an additional 5% interest at the
end of the farm-in period at fair market value
• If successful:
• Ore to be trucked to Telfer for processing
• High grade ore could extend Telfer’s life and
lower its production cost per ounce
https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2019-10/190816_Newcrest%20Full%20Year%20Results%20-%20Briefing%20Pack.pdf
FY19 Presentation
Sandeep Biswas
Havieron: Presence of higher grade copper-gold mineralisation confirmed.
Successful development of the Havieron deposit has the potential to materially improve AISC margin and mine life at Telfer
https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2019-10/190816_Newcrest%20Full%20Year%20Results%20-%20Presentation.pdf
@Jerry
" If GGP start paying a dividend I shall either reduce my position significantly or get out completely. It’s a massively inefficient way to distribute excess capital to shareholders, and at this stage of the company, inappropriate"
Hoe else does a company share its profits out amongst shareholders??
Hi Lenz - I didn't doubt that you had seen that as I've seen those figures quoted before but as far as Newcrest are concerned the metrics to determine a Tier 1 are as stated. I'm pretty sure that Havieron is a hit on all those metric already without any of the additional ounces to be added.
GLA - Paddy
@TomE - I haven't seen any confirmation anywhere of what contractor we will be using, I would assume we would want to use DDH1 as they have the experience and are supplying the rigs for NCM at Havieron but there has been no news on this yet as far as I'm aware.
@statto - fair play mate, you are entitled to your opinion. So if we did manage to get to tom_the_bomb's estimation of FCF of £134M per year. How would you see the company employ that capital over the coming years?
ATB - Paddy
Knew I saw it somewhere .... A Tier One gold asset is a mine with a stated mine life in excess of 10 years with annual production of at least five hundred thousand ounces of gold and total cash cost per ounce within the bottom half of Wood Mackenzie's cost curve tools (excluding state-owned and privately owned mines).1 Jul 2019
Paddy I could have sworn it was as I stated ..saw it somewhere !
@Jerry
" If GGP start paying a dividend I shall either reduce my position significantly or get out completely. It’s a massively inefficient way to distribute excess capital to shareholders, and at this stage of the company, inappropriate"
1. In Paddy's scenario (1p / year dividends, essentially risk-free, you'd be able to sell at a price in excess of 20p, probably 25p.
2. We'd be in a different stage of the company if that happened, wouldn't we? This would effectively become an income-producing share with a significant upside if we had further good finds.
3. In that scenario we should be returning capital one way or another. The only exception would be if we had a big hit elsewhere and decided to use the funds from Hav to mine it ourselves, which I'm not sure I'd believe in.
PG hi,
Thanks for your reply but do we know who will be doing the drilling ??????
Cheers
Tom :-)))
Afternoon Paddy. If GGP start paying a dividend I shall either reduce my position significantly or get out completely. It’s a massively inefficient way to distribute excess capital to shareholders, and at this stage of the company, inappropriate. But you knew my opinion already......
Newcrest definition of a Tier 1 deposit
Scale Potential for > 300 kozpa Au
Mine Life Potential for > 15 year mine life preferred
Cost Position (AISC) <$800
Value Upside Significant resource or exploration upside likely
@Lenz - not according to Newcrest - look at page 54 of this briefing book.
https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2020-05/200512_BAML%20Conference%20-%20Briefing%20Book.pdf
@TomE - I can't be certain whether it's the drill rigs or support vehicles but there has been activity in two locations at Scallywag over the last 4/5 weeks.
ATB Paddy
By the way who is doing the RC core drilling at Scally has anything been issued to confirm that its DDH1 ?????
I think Paddy said that it appears that drill rigs have arrived on site ?
Just to update you on that, a tier 1 mine produces 500,000 Oz per year over 10 years, so you may have to recalculate GGP’s income again !
It should be an overview of the NCM FY figures, update on all their on going at Red Chris etc, and a massive juice of "look at this haveiron thingy, its a monster and it is going to make all NCM shareholders a lot of money (it will make GGP shareholders money too, but a bet lots of NCM shareholders don't care about that).
Nothing on Scally because as yet that is nothing to do with NCM.
Personally - I don't want NCM drilling our test holes at Scallywag, we need to drill test them ourselves and if we find good mineralisation there then we can negotiate from a position of strength IMO.
ATB - Paddy
I’m with you on that TomE.
I’ve been thinking the next stage is to get their name on the scally agreement as that’s the easiest way to ensure nobody else can step in. Surely it’s a no brainer?
If I was a NCM shareholder and they missed out on an opportunity like, after what happened with HAV, that you would be fuming!
All my opinion of course.
tom_the_bomb - so if we were to get roughly £60M per year FCF and GGP were to keep £20M to cover all exploration & admin costs then we potentially could be looking at a 1p dividend per year (sorry Jerry) just based on the Hannam report on the sulphide zone up to the March quarterly.
I'm up for a bit of that - Paddy
Its a good shout and I share your enthusiasm to be honest, just likely to be wishful thinking for now. RS made a good point about BP and the north sea though. Who knows, we find out tomorrow!
GGP / Havieron
I know that Scally is 100% and no JV with NCM, what I meant is:-
I was hoping that NCM might say as they are already in an agreement with GGP ? Havieron, they might come to some agreement to use NCM to drill the required test holes for GGP at Scally.
Wouldn't be at all surprised if GGP issued an RNS after the NCM results are published or possibly a joint RNS for both sets of shareholders, might be preferable to align the shareholders with each other. Anyway we will just have to wait and see, not long now boys and girls.
Wouldn't be so sure about an update on Scally. Remember that whilst we're in a close relationship with NCM, as of now GGP own 100% of Scally and are responsible for prospecting until a JV is entered into. I can't see NCM having any interest in Scally until GGP can prove there's anything down there.
Should have said "Maybe an update "if " they will commence scally ???
Chrisat...."if we go on mining we may not see a return for years" I disagree, if we become cash generative and IIs jump in after MRE, and the resource keeps getting bigger with each MRE upgrade, and scally hits, then we get another JV etc etc investors will see a good return in good time in either scenario. Only difference is, one is a one time payout, the other is a gift that keeps on giving.
GLA
CHAIN
I agree they will provide their shareholders with a positive update on Havieron
Have to say eerily quiet, subdued number trades, GH selling, no news yet on Scally
Might be just the time for some left field news .... here's hoping..... Rup